2011 NFL Mock Draft: How Will the First Round Shake Out?
The 2011 NFL draft is a mere three weeks away. There is a bunch of speculation on who will go number one with several people claiming that a handful of players are capable of taking that crowning achievement.
Here is my 2011 Mock NFL Draft. This only contains the first round. I have taken a lot of time on this and hope you all enjoy.
Please leave any comments. I would love to hear what you guys and girls have to say about my predictions for your respective teams.
1. Carolina Panthers: Blaine Gabbert QB, Missouri
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Team Needs: DT/WR/QB/OG/TE/DE
Analysis: Rumor has it, the Carolina Panthers have stated internally that they will not be selecting a defensive player with the first overall pick. With that said, you can exclude Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers, Auburn DT Nick Fairley, Alabama DT Marcell Dareus, and LSU CB Patrick Peterson right off of the bat. Now who does that leave us with? Well, there is UGA WR A.J. Green, Auburn QB Cam Newton, and Missouri QB Blain Gabbert. As much as I like A.J. Green it's rare that a WR goes number one overall, and he just hasn't received a lot of draft buzz since Julio Jones "out shined" him at the combine, so it's down to Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert. After Gabbert's pro day, where he wowed everyone in attendance, almost every mock draft will have him going to Carolina from now until the draft. Mike Mayock stated that he was as impressed with Gabbert's pro day as he was with Sam Bradford and Matt Ryan's. The new regime has no ties to Jimmy Clausen and with a pending rookie wage scale coming it won't cripple the franchise if Gabbert fails as a pro so owner Jerry Richardson can afford to take the chance on him.
2. Denver Broncos - Marcell Dareus DE/DT, Alabama
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Team Needs: DT/CB/SS/OLB/RT
Analysis: The Broncos have several issues on the defensive side of the ball come the 2011 season. Even with resigning CB Champ Bailey they still need help in the secondary as 2010 rookie Perrish Cox may be looking at some serious jail time in the near future with a pending rape charge. Add to that, 2009 rookie Alphonso Smith (for who the Broncos traded a 2010 first round pick to acquire) was so bad that they traded him away after only a year. Upfront they need a complete overhaul of the defensive line. Fortunately for the Broncos the 2011 draft is loaded with D-line and secondary prospects. I've seen a lot of mock drafts that have the Broncos taking Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers given that new Head Coach John Fox used his first pick in Carolina on another powerful DE in Julius Peppers, especially since they will be switching to a 4-3 defense. But they currently have OLB's Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil on the roster and will probably have both of them playing DE in 2011. Plus there are lingering concerns over Bowers' knee injury. So this pick really only comes down to LSU CB Patrick Peterson or a DT like Auburn's Nick Fairley or Alabama's Marcell Dareus. DT is a much bigger need at this point after the Broncos released Jamal Williams and Justin Bannan.
3. Buffalo Bills - Cam Newton QB, Auburn
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Team Needs: OT/DE/OLB/WR/CB
Analysis: First off let me just say that it pains me to mock Cam Newton to the Bills. With every other draft guru already doing it, it makes me feel kind of sheepish. With that out of the way, it looks as though the Bills will continue their draft ineptitude for another year. With Buddy Nix's ties to the SEC and Chan Gailey's love of athletic QB's it does make perfect sense. While it is popular opinion that Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a starting caliber QB I don't think the answer is Newton. Buffalo has so many other needs at this point it's a waste to not take better advantage of the number three selection. NT Kyle Williams had a great year but he was the exception along the defensive line. Nick Fairley or Marcell Dareus would be perfect fits. As of right now there aren't any offensive tackles in this draft that are worth a pick this high so Buffalo will have to wait to fill that huge void until the second round. I could put A.J. Green at this spot if Carolina passes on him. Green is an explosive player that would really open up the Bills offense with Lee Evans. However, the emergence of Steve Johnson last season may prevent Buffalo from selecting a WR. Another option would be Texas A&M OLB Von Miller who I've seen mocked to the Bills on a few different web sites.
4. Cincinnati Bengals - A.J. Green WR, UGA
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Team Needs: DE/WR/SS/RB/QB
Analysis: The top three targets for Cincy will be Da'Quan Bowers, A.J. Green, and Patrick Peterson. Cincy's pass-rush was absolutely horrendous this past year with the exception of Carlos Dunlap and Bowers would be a great addition. It seems as if current DE Antwan Odom is always injured. Unfortunately there is too much uncertainty regarding Bowers' knee. CB Jonathan Joseph is a free agent and if he's not retained by the time the draft rolls around the Bengals would certainly consider Peterson, who some feel is the best overall talent in the draft. The Bengals offense is currently in the midst of a complete overhaul. T.O. won't be resigned, Chad Johnson will probably be traded, and it sounds as though Carson Palmer is prepared to walk into the sunset unless he's traded or released. So whoever QB's the Bengals offense in 2011 will need an elite talent like Green to throw the ball to.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Von Miller DE/OLB, Texas A&M
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Team Needs: QB/LT/OLB/OG/CB
Analysis: A lot of mock drafts have the Cardinals taking a QB given all of the struggles of Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and John Skelton. But I truly believe given enough time Skelton can turn into a quality QB in the NFL, although they would be better off signing a veteran like Marc Bulger or trading for Kevin Kolb. Coach Whisenhunt is in hot water already and cannot afford to have another year with a struggling rookie QB. With Patrick Peterson still on the board it makes this pick very hard to predict. He would give the Cardinals one of the best young CB duos in the league when paired with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and he would easily replace Greg Toler who has been absolutely dreadful. Miller gets the nod here for several reasons, the biggest is how ancient and anemic Arizona's pass-rush was this past season. Plus the Cards new defensive coordinator Ray Horton is of the Dick LeBeau School of coaching which puts a lot of emphasis rushing linebackers. Add to that, the fact Miller was, by all accounts, the top prospect at the Senior Bowl. During the game he did not disappoint and has assured himself a selection in the top ten of the draft. At the combine he even managed to increase his draft stock, if it was even possible, by running a 4.46 forty and dominating the drills.
6. Cleveland Browns - Nick Fairley DT/DE, Auburn
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Team Needs: WR/DT/DE/RT/OLB/CB
Analysis: It's no big secret that Cleveland's biggest need is WR. While Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie have shown small flashes of potential, I do not think that either one of them will ever become anything better than a solid number two. Unfortunately, for the Browns, I see no way that A.J. Green falls this far and it's too early to take Alabama's Julio Jones despite the clinic he put on during the combine. There is a fair chance that they end up trading back to acquire more picks with another team looking to snag the top QB available if Gabbert or Newton fall. If they do stay in the sixth spot, it will most likely come down to the best defensive lineman which would be Auburn's Nick Fairley. Cleveland is switching to a 4-3 defense and after cutting both Kenyon Coleman and Shaun Rogers it is imperative that they stock-up. However, don't discount Patrick Peterson. Even though Cleveland used a top 10 pick on Joe Haden last year GM Mike Holmgren has a history of taking DB's in the first round. Also with Peterson still on the board, this is a prime spot for the Cowboys to trade up to get him. With so many holes it may be a better idea for Cleveland to trade back and acquire more picks.
7. San Francisco 49ers - Patrick Peterson CB, LSU
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Team Needs: QB/CB/OLB/DE/FS
Analysis: With the 49ers having a new head coach, it makes this pick a difficult one to make. Obviously this team needs an upgrade at QB. Alex Smith is a pending free agent but Jim Harbaugh may feel he can work some magic with him. Gabbert would have been the ideal candidate here but with him no longer available at this point, Patrick Peterson becomes the selection. With Gabbert gone this has to be the absolute farthest that Peterson will fall in the draft. Nate Clements is due more than 15 million dollars over the next two years and is likely to be released sometime soon. On the other side Shawntae Spencer is very inconsistent. Peterson, if taken here, would immediately come in as a starter and provide a much needed lift to the San Francisco secondary.
8. Tennessee Titans: Da'Quan Bowers DE, Clemson
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Team Needs: QB/LG/OC/ILB/DE
Analysis: With the departures of Vince Young and Jeff Fisher, this pick has become incredibly hard to pick. I'm fairly certain they will resign Kerry Collins who's good enough to play another year or two, but they really need someone to develop for the future. With the top two QB's already off of the board I can't see them taking one here. Given the headaches this franchise has endured with one running QB I doubt they'll take another in Cam Newton if he's available anyway. Ever since Albert Haynesworth left town they've had a hole along the defensive front. Given his rocky relationship in Washington it wouldn't surprise me to see the Titans trade for Haynesworth; of course that can only happen if a new CBA is reached before the draft. Another issue they have is the pending free agency of DE Jason Babin. He's 31 years old and will be looking for a big payday and the Titans will probably not want to pay the price tag. So with the top QB's gone this will come down to the highest rated DT or DE depending on the Babin and Haynesworth situations.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Prince Amukamara CB, Nebraska
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Team Needs: OT/CB/FS/OG/DE/SS
One of the Cowboys biggest needs is corner back. At CB, Mike Jenkins was terrible all year and has become a pass-interference machine, and Terrence Newman will be 33 years old before the start of the 2011 season. Dallas will have to send Buffalo a basket of mini muffins (and who does not like mini muffins) for taking Newton and starting a chain reaction that drops Prince Amukamara to them. He will certainly be a great addition to fill the deficiencies in the secondary.
10. Washington Redskins - Julio Jones WR, Alabama
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Team Needs: QB/WR/NT/DE/RT/OLB/CB/FS/RG/OC
Analysis: Washington has so many needs it is almost impossible to know where to start. QB is their biggest need but with Gabbert and Newton gone they'll need to look in the later rounds to satisfy that need. Clinton Portis has been released and Ryan Torrain is not a full time starter, meaning Mark Ingram would make a lot of sense here. However, whoever plays QB in 2011 will need a dependable WR to throw the ball to. Santana Moss is a 32 year old free agent and their best WR. On the defensive side of the ball the Redskins need a replacement for Andre Carter who is clearly not cut out to be an OLB in a 3-4 defense. Cameron Jordan would be good to replace Albert Haynesworth at DE. And at CB both Carlos Rogers and Phillip Buchanon are free agents. Personally I feel as though they would be better off taking Robert Quinn to replace Andre Carter but I have a feeling that Dan Snyder is going to be so enamored with Jones' measureables that he won't be able to pass him up. There is also the chance that they try to trade back with the Rams, who are also in love with Jones, and pick up some more draft picks to fill their many holes.
11. Houston Texans - Robert Quinn DE/OLB, UNC
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Team Needs: NT/OLB/FS/CB/SS/WR
Analysis: Now that Wade Phillips has been hired to be the new defensive coordinator the Texans will be changing their defensive scheme to a 3-4 defense. Not knowing how the Texans will use what they have currently to fill out the new scheme makes this difficult. DeMeco Ryans will play ILB, and Brian Cushing could play either inside or outside. Mario Williams will play DE and although he is very athletic he may not be quick enough to play OLB. That leaves a vacant spot at OLB. In a division with Peyton Manning you can never have enough DB's and they really need a replacement for the recently released FS Eugene Wilson, so a DB could be a possibility here, especially if Brandon Harris is still on the board. They will also need a NT to anchor the middle of their new 3-4 defensive front. Right now it would be a reach for Baylor's Phil Taylor, unless they trade back. Quinn is considered the last of the "elite" prospects and would be a great choice for the Houston Texans at number eleven.
12. Minnesota Vikings - Cameron Jordan DL, Cal
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Team Needs: QB/RG/SS/FS/CB/DE/OC/DT
Analysis: It is extremely obvious that the biggest question facing the Vikings in 2011 will be who is playing under center. Favre is definitely gone, Tavaris Jackson has never shown that he's consistent enough to be anything more than a quality back-up and he's a free agent, and after a promising start against Philly rookie Joe Webb deflated his value with a dreadful showing against the Lions. In addition to needing a QB the Vikings also need to look for replacements for the Williams' wall as Kevin Williams will be 31 years old and Pat Williams will be a 38 year old free agent. Add in the fact that Ray Edwards will also be a free agent and the Vikings once stout defensive line could look very different at the start of the 2011 season. They drafted Chris Cook last year but still have a lot of needs in the secondary as Cedric Griffin is very injury-prone and Antoine Winfield will be 34 years old. Based on the talent available Cameron Jordan makes the most sense. Ray Edwards probably won't be resigned and 2010 rookie Everson Griffin can't seem to stay out of trouble so Jordan would help keep Minnesota's reputation as having one of the best D-lines in all of football.
13. Detroit Lions - Tyron Smith OT, USC
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Team Needs: CB/OLB/LT/OC/RB/SS
Analysis: The Lions drafting philosophy has always been to take the best available player. They could take one of the DE's available like Purdue's Ryan Kerrigan but they already have so much money and talent invested in the defensive line. They really need a CB but after watching Miami's Brandon Harris get burned by Michael Floyd in the bowl game I think it would be a fairly large risk to take him here. They also need someone at OLB to replace Julian Peterson. On offense they desperately need some O-line help soon or Matt Stafford will become the next David Carr. Detroit will never climb up from the basement of the NFL if they can't keep their well-paid and prized QB healthy and upright. The only questions regarding Tyron Smith, about his lean frame from playing the 2010 season at about 290lbs., have already been answered when he showed up at the combine and weighed in at 307lbs. of solid muscle. The Lions can no longer kid themselves into believing that current LT Jeff Backus can anchor the blind side. The only other player that I can see the Lions taking here is UCLA OLB Akeem Ayers as he would fill a huge position of need and would be one of the best talents available.
14. St. Louis Rams - Aldon Smith DE, Missouri
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Team Needs: WR/RG/FS/DT/WLB/RB
Analysis: The Rams seriously need to add weapons for QB Sam Bradford to succeed as well as adding pieces that take pressure off of workhorse RB Steven Jackson. Unfortunately Alabama combine warrior Julio Jones is no longer available. After releasing O.J. Atogwe the Rams will have to target a replacement Free Safety in rounds two or three. They also desperately need to replace Adam Goldberg at RG so Mike Pouncey will get some consideration here. On the defensive line they need a replacement for Gary Gibson, and even though James Hall is a good DE he's 34 years old. This pick will come down to the best DT or DE available. Aldon Smith is an athletic freak who has been drawing comparisons to Jason Pierre-Paul.
15. Miami Dolphins - Mark Ingram RB, Alabama
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Team Needs: QB/RB/FS/TE/LG
Analysis: In the 2011 offseason Ricky Williams will be a 33 year old free agent and Ronnie Brown will be a free agent with a history of injury issues. If he's available this late, Mark Ingram would be the perfect option for the Miami Dolphins. Given how ineffective Chad Henne has been at QB it wouldn't surprise me to see them target a QB if one of the top prospects is still available. Defensively they could use an upgrade at ILB for the often injured Channing Crowder, but that need will have to wait until the later rounds. They will also need to address the free safety position at some point because Chris Clemons just does not cut it anymore.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Ryan Kerrigan DE, Purdue
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Team Needs: DE/FS/SS/CB/WR
Analysis: Personally I think Jacksonville should replace David Garrard. However, the Jags seem to be content with him under center. They could also use some WR help as well, especially if they don't resign Mike Sims-Walker. On defense they need someone generating a solid pass-rush and Aaron Kampman's body just doesn't seem to be able to hold up any longer. Kerrigan is a relentless pass-rusher with a great work ethic. They also need help at CB opposite Rashean Mathis as Derek Cox is no longer consistent enough to be counted on. In the later rounds they'll need to address Offensive Tackle depth after cutting Jordan Black.
17. New England Patriots (via Oakland) - Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
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Team Needs OG/LT/OLB/DE/WR/RB
Analysis: Current LT Matt Light will be a 33 year old free agent this offseason. The Patriots could move Sebastian Vollmer to the left side but that would create a hole on the right side. It also appears as though Logan Mankins may be traded at some point regardless of the fact that he's been franchised. In addition to the Mankins situation Stephen Neal announced his retirement. The Pats could use someone to help generate a pass-rush from the linebacker position. UCLA OLB Akeem Ayers possesses the kind versatility that the coach loves. Anthony Castonzo makes the most sense with Cameron Jordan off of the board unless they value one of the other 5-technique DE's available.
18. San Diego Chargers - J.J. Watt DT/DE, Wisconsin
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Team Needs: OLB/DE/ILB/DE/WR
Analysis: For statistically being first in the NFL in total offense and defense the Chargers have a lot of issues to address this offseason. On offense they could see their WR corps become seriously depleted with the pending free agency of Malcolm Floyd and eventual trade of Vincent Jackson. A very tempting option would be Pitt's Jon Baldwin. He's a perfect fit for the type of WR the Chargers covet. Defensively they will need to replace pending free agent DE Jacques Cesaire. But more importantly they will need to get someone who can generate a consistent pass rush. Larry English was supposed to be that man, replacing Shawn Merriman, but so far has barely been noticeable. This pick will come down to the top OLB or DE. If Wisconsin OT Gabe Carimi is still available, he would be the perfect replacement for disappointing RT Jeromey Clary.
19. New York Giants - Akeem Ayers OLB, UCLA
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Team Needs: LT/OC/RB/OLB/OB
Analysis: The Giants need a complete overhaul of their linebacking corps. Michael Boley can never seem to stay healthy and Keith Bullock is just old. Akeem Ayers fits Perry Fewell's defensive scheme perfectly. On the offensive side they could really use a left tackle. They drafted William Beatty to fill that need but so far he's been very underwhelming. They could take Wisconsin's Gabe Carimi but he's really better suited to play RT. MSU's Derek Sherrod is another option but I can't see the Giants passing on someone like Ayers if he is available. In the later rounds they will need to address their needs at center and guard. Both Shaun O'Hara and Rich Seubert are entering the final years of their contracts, are 34 and 32 years old respectively, and are coming off of injury plagued seasons.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Adrian Clayborn DE, Iowa
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Team Needs: DE/ILB/CB/RT/OG
Analysis: Tampa Bay certainly upgraded the interior of their defensive line with 2010 picks Gerald McCoy and Brian Price but also managed to add nothing to the DE spot. Coming into the 2011 draft this is going to be a huge need for them. Fortunately, there is a plethora of quality 4-3 DE's in this draft to choose from. Despite his past off the field indiscretions Clayborn is a relentless pass-rusher who slides due to an inconsistent year. The Bucs could also use a replacement for the ageless wonder Rhonde Barber so with Brandon Harris still on the board I could see the Bucs pounce on him if Clayborn falters during the draft process.
21. Kansas City Chiefs - Phil Taylor NT, Baylor
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Team Needs: NT/OLB/WR/OC/RB
Analysis: The Chiefs need to add another passing option for Cassell in which case Jon Baldwin and, especially, Julio Jones would be options. The rest of their issues lay on the defensive side of the ball. Tamba Hali was franchised but they really need another rusher to compliment him. Current nose tackle Ron Edwards is a free agent and the Chiefs could certainly use an upgrade over him anyway. GM Scott Pioli hit it big in New England when he drafted Vince Wilfork and will look to do the same with Phil Taylor. Taylor was one of a few players who really improved his draft stock at the Senior Bowl by dominating the competition.
22. Indianapolis Colts - Gabe Carimi OT, Wisconsin
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Team Needs: OT/OG/DT/WR/SS
Analysis: Charles Johnson, Tony Ugoh, and Adam Terry will all be free agents this offseason. Add to that Jeff Saturday will be 36 years old and his body has already started to break down. The Colts are in desperate need of an offensive line overhaul. Personally I think that Nate Solder or Derek Sherrod would be a better fit for the Colts offense but GM Bill Polian seems to have a thing for Big 10 players. They could also target OG's Rodney Hudson or Mike Pouncey, or PSU OC Stefen Wisniewski. Aside from the O-line they could also use an upgrade at DT in which case Stephen Paea would fit their defensive scheme. And after cutting the often-injured Bob Sanders the Colts will probably target another Hawkeye safety in the second or third round in Tyler Sash.
23. Philadelphia Eagles - Mike Pouncey OG, Florida
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Team Needs: CB/OG/OLB/SS/RT
Analysis: Philly's two biggest needs are on the offensive line and in the defensive secondary. Outside of Asante Samuel they really have nothing at CB. Ellis Hobbs retired and Dimitri Patterson was routinely burned. Offensively they need to do a better job of protecting Michael Vick. As far as I see it I think this pick will come down to Florida OG Mike Pouncey, Miami CB Brandon Harris, or Colorado CB Jimmy Smith. It'll be which ever player Andy Reid covets most and I'm giving them Pouncey as he is a perfect fit. The Eagles may have needs on the definsive side of the ball, but their top priority needs to be the protection of Michael Vick.
24. New Orleans Saints - Justin Houston DE, UGA
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Team Needs: DT/OLB/DE/RB/RT/SS
Analysis: It's a pretty safe bet that the Saints will draft defense here as their offense is as potent as any in the league. Their biggest needs are an OLB and a DE to play opposite of Will Smith. With the signing of Shaun Rogers the Saints filled their need for a DT, albeit temporarily, to pair with Sedrick Ellis. Based on their needs and the talent available Justin Houston makes the most sense. At the combine he looked to be in great shape at a well-defined 270lbs, but did not look fluid in the linebacker drills which will probably exclude him from the draft boards of both the Chargers and Chiefs.
25. Seattle Seahawks - Jimmy Smith CB, Colorado
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Team Needs: CB/QB/SS/RT/OC
Analysis: Matt Hasselbeck is nearing the end of the line, and Charlie Whitehurst is nothing more than a career clip board holder. Pre-Senior Bowl this would have been an ideal spot for Jake Locker. Unfortunately, there was no part of the entire week of practice or the actual game that showed anyone he is worthy of first round consideration. He did get a little bit of redemption at the combine though. If they opt to stay with Whitehurst for the 2011 season their attention will shift to the defense where a lot of holes will need to be filled along the front line and in the secondary. Any number of options could come into play here but I'm going with Jimmy Smith. Seattle's pass defense is atrocious with the exception of 2010 first round pick Earl Thomas.
26. Baltimore Ravens - Derek Sherrod OT, Miss. State
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Team Needs: CB/RT/RG/DE/WR/ILB
Analysis: Offensively the Ravens do have a few issues at OC, RT, and WR. Current starter Matt Birk will be 35 years old at the time of the 2011 draft and Jared Gaither will probably be traded in the offseason. Even though most teams view Florida's Mike Pouncey as a Guard, don't be surprised to see the Ravens take him as a Center if he's available. At WR none of the Ravens starters are younger than 30 years old, and they need someone who can stretch the field vertically. Defensively everyone knows the Ravens biggest weakness is in the secondary. Chris Carr, Fabian Washington, and Josh Wilson will all be free agents this offseason. Last offseason Ed Reed gave some serious consideration to retirement as his mounting injury history is taking a toll on his body and as such 2010 may be his last season. Because of this I would expect the Ravens to possibly target UCLA's Rahim Moore here or Oklahoma's Quinton Carter in the second round. Outside of Terrell Suggs they haven't been able to generate nearly as good of a pass-rush from their linebackers in recent years as well. I know they drafted Sergio Kindle in the second round of the 2010 draft, and it still may be too early to tell whether or not he's going to pan out, but they can't count on him to recover from a serious head injury. They could also use an upgrade at DE over Cory Redding who hasn't been that good in pass-rushing situations. Sherrod represents the best combination of need and talent. Marshall Yanda is a free agent and with Jared Gaither's back problems they'll need someone who can step in right away at RT or LT if they move Michael Oher to the right side.
27. Atlanta Falcons - Nate Solder OT, Colorado
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Team Needs: WR/OG/OT/SS/CB/TE/DE
Analysis: The offensive line is a big issue with starters Tyson Clabo, Justin Blalock, and Harvey Dahl all free agents this offseason. Sam Baker really struggled in 2010 and would be better served playing on the right side. Tony Gonzalez has stated that he's 50/50 on whether or not he's going to retire at the end of the season. If he does the Falcons will need to find a dependable replacement to keep the offense moving in which case Notre Dame's Kyle Rudolph would get some serious considerations. After being absolutely abused by Green Bay's offense in the divisional round of the playoffs Atlanta's defense could also use an infusion of talent. DE John Abraham will be 33 years old before the start of the 2011 season. In the secondary they could use an upgrade from William Moore as well as a nickel CB. I went with Nate Solder because I expect Atlanta to resign at least one of their free agent Guards at some point. Mike Mayock called Solder the next "Tony Boselli". Solder is an excellent pass-blocker and if he can add some bulk to his extremely lean frame he could become a steal at the end of the first round.
28. New England Patriots - Cameron Heyward DT/DE, OSU
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Analysis: After addressing the needs on the offensive line with their initial first round pick the Patriots will almost assuredly take a defensive prospect with this pick especially if Florida OG Mike Pouncey is actually off of the board. Given how much the Patriots like to trade back and acquire more picks it would surprise me if they stayed here. Heyward would fill the large hole vacated by the Richard Seymour trade to Oakland. I don't think the signing of Marcus Stroud will have any impact on their draft decisions. With no pass-rushing OLB's available they could also take Pitt WR Jon Baldwin to fill their need for a vertical threat.
29. Chicago Bears - Brandon Harris CB, Miami
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Team Needs: OT/OG/DT/OC/WR
Analysis: Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz finally discovered a play set that doesn't get Jay Cutler killed, however it's only masking the serious deficiencies on the offensive line. Frank Omiyale can't pass-block, Chris Williams is looking like a bust, and Olin Kreutz is a 34 year old free agent. On the defensive side they could certainly use some help in the secondary and a complimentary pass-rusher to Julius Peppers. They also need to find a replacement for Tommy Harris at DT. If Mike Pouncey is gone at this point the next available option would be Illinois DT Corey Liuget or Miami CB Brandon Harris. I went with Harris because if the Bears want to contend with the Packers for the foreseeable future they'll need to cover the Packers' offensive weapons better.
30. New York Jets - Brooks Reed DE/OLB, Arizona
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Team Needs: OLB/DE/NT/CB/K/WR
Analysis: The Jets have serious issues along the defensive line. Nose tackle Kris Jenkins was cut after missing 25 games in the last 3 years. Also defensive end Shaun Ellis will be a 32 year old free agent. They also have a serious need for pass-rushers, especially after cutting Jason Taylor and the woefully disappointing Vernon Gholston. Offensively they are relatively set except that they'll probably need a WR to replace Santonio Holmes or Braylon Edwards, whichever the Jets let walk in free agency. Of course it's almost an absolute certainty that if one of them isn't resigned it'll be Edwards. With the release of Damien Woody they are now in the market for a right tackle as well. The hype on Brooks Reed has been growing and he's drawing some comparisons to Green Bay OLB Clay Matthews.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Muhammed Wilkerson DT, Temple
Team Needs: RG/CB/OT/DE/P/NT
Analysis: By now every Steelers fan knows their weaknesses and what the team needs to be focusing on come draft day. In the secondary the team needs to find a solid CB to play with Ike Taylor. Bryant McFadden has been very poor in coverage and has become injury prone. Willie Gay is barely serviceable as a nickel CB. Hopefully Crezdon Butler will make strides in his second year but that can't be counted on. On the defensive line age has become a very big concern. Aaron Smith has missed a significant portion of the season for the second time in 3 years. After a very slow start to his career Ziggy Hood has come on as of late. Also NT Casey Hampton will turn 34 years old by the start of the 2011 season.
The biggest issue by far is on the offensive line. Outside of rookie Maurkice Pouncey every other position has been a struggle just about all year. Both starting OT's ended the season on I.R. LT Max Starks, even when healthy, is an above average option but would be better suited at RT. Willie Colon, who suffered a ruptured Achilles, will be a free agent and has been looking to cash in. The most pressing issue has been at RG where we have seen a revolving door of players such as Trai Essex, Ramon Foster, and Doug Legursky unable to stabilize the position or capitalize with their chance to start. Mike Pouncey would be the perfect fit and seems to be destined to join his brother in Pittsburgh.
The problem for the Steelers is that there are several teams ahead of them that could also use Mike Pouncey's services and as such he will not be available here. However I do expect the Steelers to make a move up for him come draft time. Since I have decided not to include trades in this particular mock draft, I'm going with Muhammed Wilkerson.
32. Green Bay Packers - Corey Liuget DT/DE, Illinois
Team Needs: OLB/LG/RB/DE/OT/WR
Analysis: The Packers will have a few holes to fill come the 2011 draft. For one they need to find a replacement for Ryan Grant. James Starks was good in the playoffs but he has a long injury history and even if he pans out, they'll still need someone to compliment him. Perhaps one of their biggest needs is for someone other than Clay Matthews to apply pressure. At defensive end Cullen Jenkins is a free agent and Johnny Jolly will be a free agent next year. Even with the drafting of Bryan Bulaga in the first round last year they still need help along the offensive line with OT Chad Clifton nearing retirement. The bigger need is at OG. Daryn Colledge is a free agent and not very good anyway. However there are plenty of solid Guards that will be available in the next two rounds.
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