I took a week off following the Wake loss. I didn’t want to say anything absurd or overly emotional. A few examples I thought of were, “We suck! We’re gonna lose the rest of our games! We’d even lose to Duke.” But that’s a little much.
Following Colorado, I found some new hope but had cautious optimism. I am not exactly sure why my mood for the week is dictated on the play of the Noles, but I do know that I hate when my mood is sullen, angry, and directionless.
The past two weeks we have seen two different offenses, but for the most part the same defense. We have got back all our starters on defense. Our line is strong. Our linebackers are underrated, and our secondary is solid.
Here are a few problems I see with the defense that can make us vulnerable to Miami.
* First, Colorado’s number one back, Rod Stewart (too many jokes to write one), carved us up. He had 21 carries and 105 yards for an average of 5.1 YPC.
This is bad because Colorado has never and will never have the athletes FSU (or most Southern schools, in particular Florida schools) will have. This guy was the No. 1 RB last year. He is raw.
Miami has talent out the wazoo. They picked from their backyard at Miami Northwestern. We throw a four-man front at them because our line is strong enough to pressure the QB and stymie the run. I think our rush defense will need to be strong, or else it could...
* Lead me to my next point—which is, our secondary is not great. It does have experience, but against Wake and CU, they were still beat on deep balls, seam patterns, and posts. For some reason Rolle, McClure, PRob, and Carter are being beat.
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The run for Miami will set up the pass. Watch (I’ll call it), Myron Rolle will get sucked up to the linebackers thinking the run is coming when Marve pulls the ball down and throws to an open receiver, who is being trailed by Patrick Robinson, where Rolle should be.
Marve is a good QB. He has a strong arm and sees well down the field. He’ll make us pay if we do not stay at home and not let their WR get past us.
Sub-point: Mickey Andrews is good. But when he runs the cover 2 against UM we get torched. I think can start with it, but I hope we mix up the linebackers and secondary. By giving Marve different looks and frustrating him with multiple DBs, we can slow down the offense.
* Point three: Ponder will need to get over nerves and make his reads quickly. He has been taking too long to decide where he wants to throw it. His talent is there, but he hasn’t come around.
He is only a RS sophomore, so we can’t get on him too much. Charlie Ward threw four or five picks in one of his first starts as a junior. It takes some time. But we need him to deliver for us.
And where the hell has the wide receiver screen been? I have not seen any consistency in the offensive play calls. Is it due to the defenses we have seen? Is Jimbo afraid of an easy pick six? Is he not tipping his hand to Miami? I don’t think so on that one. You don’t set up a rival by losing your conference opener.
* Holy Antone Smith. He became the five-star back we thought he was four years ago. He fought through tackles. He hurdled people on the ground. He was decisive in the hole. Good for him. We’ll need that performance this week.
Sadly, he is faster than CU’s defense, but not Miami’s. He won’t get another 60-yard type run. But he can get solid yardage and make this game an old fashioned FSU/Miami game: a lot of running, a handful of big plays, and great defense.
* The home field advantage will favor FSU. The Nole fans bought up the open tickets from Miami’s ticket office. The sidewalk alumni for UM won’t make it to the game because of the new location, and Dolphin Stadium is nowhere near as good of an atmosphere as the Orange Bowl. It will play more as a neutral site, all the way down to the lack of home paint on the field.
* Last point: this is the first time that both teams have had good athletes and good coaching at the same time since the 2000 game. The '01 and '02 games were with coaching staff holdovers from Butch Davis for UM and Jeff Bowden for FSU. Since then, the recruiting base fell off for both teams until the last two years.
I think we’ll see both teams in the 20s.
Prediction: 24-20, Miami—and no, a field goal won’t decide it this year.
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