Oregon-USC: "All We Need Is a Little Execution, and a Lot Of Luck"

The Ducks' best hope with the ball is to try play as physically and hungrily as the Beavers did and run it up the gut. That means Blount going over and through the Trojans and Johnson making only quick jukes and then getting north and south, rather than cutting laterally as he likes to do.

With the team speed USC has on defense, even without Rey Maualuga, running laterally and attacking the edges simply isn’t going to do much good.

The Ducks' defense must apply consistent pressure to Mark Sanchez, something they haven’t done in most of their games. For all the sacks Oregon’s Will Tukuafu, Nick Reed, and friends have gotten, the pass rush has tended to be sporadic, leveling the quarterback one play and giving them enough time to make a sandwich the next.

Leave USC’s playmakers alone in the backfield to find a receiver downfield or a running lane, and their talent will put the game away in a hurry.

Given the damage USC’s tight ends and backs can do downfield, the Ducks have to get better pass coverage from their linebackers. The Ducks have done a very poor job executing their zone coverage schemes, even against Washington State and Utah State. Players seem to get to their spots and take root, rather than moving to players coming into their area of responsibility.

If Nick Allioti and his staff can’t fix the problems with this defensive set, it would probably be best to stick to man to man and take their chances being predictable.

For USC to recover their swagger against the Ducks, the first thing they need to do is not beat themselves. Turnovers and penalties gave the Beavers the chance to finish them off last week, and it is imperative they deny Oregon the same opportunities.

The Ducks' spread option offense lives on big plays, not steady drives. The Trojans should keep the Ducks in front of them and rely on Oregon’s young quarterbacks and inconsistent receivers to stall drives before they reach the end zone.

If USC can keep the Ducks' offense at bay and dominate time of possession, their talented playmakers will do the rest.

Oregon’s best hope to pull off the upset is to come out strong early and get some big plays on special teams to put the offense and defense in favorable positions against the Trojans.

If they can build a lead, or at least stay even, with the Trojans through the first half, they might just be able to hold off a run by USC late. If the Ducks fall behind, it will be a tall order for such a young team to mount a comeback against an opponent with greater depth on the road.

USC will win if they put distance between themselves and the Ducks, and probably if they can force the game to come down to a field goal, given Matt Evenson’s struggles this season.

Oregon won’t have as many opportunities against the Trojans as they did against any team they have played so far, so to have a chance they must take advantage of all the ones they get. That means no dropped passes, no missed field goals, and no leaving USC ball carriers alone in space.

I make no secret of the fact that I am a rabid Oregon Ducks fan, and my prediction for the score reflects that. It is a prediction based on faith in one’s team, not cold hard facts. If I had to put a percentage on the odds of this prediction being right, though, it would probably be less than 50 percent.

Still, much stranger things than the Ducks winning in the Coliseum happen almost every week in college football.

MY VERDICT: Oregon Ducks 28, Southern California Trojans 27

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