Fantasy Baseball logoFantasy Baseball

2011 Fantasy Projections No. 91: Why Giants' Brian Wilson Has Reached Peak Value

ARLINGTON, TX - NOVEMBER 01:  Brian Wilson #38 of the San Francisco Giants pitches against the Texas Rangers in Game Five of the 2010 MLB World Series at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on November 1, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. The Giants won 3-1. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Nick KappelAnalyst IIIMarch 17, 2011

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Brian Wilson led the majors with 48 saves in 2010 on his way to establishing himself as one of the most reliable closers in fantasy baseball.

His rise to the elite ranks wasn’t a sudden one, however, as Wilson has gradually improved in several important statistical categories over the last three seasons:

 

Strikeout Rate

  • 2008: 9.67
  • 2009: 10.33
  • 2010: 11.21

 

Walk Rate

  • 2008: 4.04
  • 2009: 3.36
  • 2010: 3.13

 

ERA

  • 2008: 4.62
  • 2009: 2.74
  • 2010: 1.81

 

WHIP

  • 2008: 1.44
  • 2009: 1.20
  • 2010: 1.18

 

Contact Rate

  • 2008: 78.1 percent
  • 2009: 77.3 percent
  • 2010: 76.1 percent

 

Saves

  • 2008: 41
  • 2009: 38
  • 2010: 48

 

There don’t appear to be any major red flags surrounding Wilson’s job security or reliability, but this much appears to be true: His value can’t get any higher.

It’s an obvious statement really, but at some point, a player has to stop improving.

He’s unlikely to top 48 saves again. Increasing his strikeout rate from 11 to 12 wouldn’t do much value-wise, but continuing to lower his walk rate would improve his mediocre-for-an-elite-reliever WHIP.

Wilson’s ERA (1.81 in ‘10) has little room for improvement. In fact, last year was the first time since 2007 that his FIP was higher than his ERA, suggesting Wilson wasn’t quite as good as his ERA suggests.

His 86.1 LOB rate (MLB average 72.2 percent) supports this.

 

  • 2008: 4.62 ERA, 3.93 FIP
  • 2009: 2.74 ERA, 2.50 FIP
  • 2010: 1.81 ERA, 2.19 FIP

 

This isn’t to say Wilson’s ERA will balloon and he will fall from the elite ranks; rather, a slight regression is likely.

Even so, expect numbers worthy of the second best closer in 2011.

 

 

 

  IP SV K/9 BB/9 ERA WHIP
2010 stats 74.2 48 11.21 3.13 1.18 1.18
3-year average 69.2 42 10.45 3.48 2.97 1.27
2011 FBI Forecast 70 41 10.60 3.30 2.30 1.20

 

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

Where can I comment?

Stay on your game

Latest news, insights, and forecasts on your teams across leagues.

Choose Teams
Get it on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Real-time news for your teams right on your mobile device.

Download
Copyright © 2017 Bleacher Report, Inc. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BleacherReport.com is part of Bleacher Report – Turner Sports Network, part of the Turner Sports and Entertainment Network. Certain photos copyright © 2017 Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Getty Images is strictly prohibited. AdChoices