Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.
Over the past few weeks, we’ve announced the top 90 players on our 2011 big board. Click on each player’s name for a more in-depth analysis, including 2011 projections!
Check out our 2011 Big Board Top 50 here.
Check out our 2011 Big Board Nos. 51-60 here.
Check out our 2011 Big Board Nos. 61-70 here.
Check out our 2011 Big Board Nos. 71-80 here.
Significant improvement in his walk rate last season (3.65 from 4.56). His 2010 BABIP (.324), LOB rate (69.8 percent), FIP (3.02) and xFIP (3.42) in comparison to his season ERA (3.84) all suggest he actually was, and will continue to be, much better than his 2010 totals indicate.
Low fly-ball rate (34.0 percent last season) makes it difficult to generate big power numbers. However, a return to 20 bombs in 2011 is likely, and there’s evidence (follow the link) that the 25-year-old can still develop 25-plus HR power.
Lowest BABIP (.196) in at least 40 years and fifth-highest fly-ball rate (54.2 percent) last season yielded embarrassing .205 batting average. Assuming he makes the necessary adjustments at the plate, 25 HRs and a .270 batting clip are reasonable.
Only truly reliable closer, averaging 40 saves over the last 14 seasons. He’s posted an ERA under 2.00 in seven of the last eight years, and his cutter (16.7 runs above average) shows no signs of slowing down, as it was third-best in the majors last season.
Declining HR/FB rates and stolen base efficiency means he’s no longer a lock to post 20 HRs and 20 steals. Based on his current 33 ADP on Mock Draft Central, and 37 Yahoo! Composite ranking, the soon-to-be 31-year-0ld is vastly overrated.
One of only two players to steal 40 bases in each of the last three seasons. Increasing home run total is encouraging, but declining contact rate and batting average, in addition to soaring strikeout rate, raises concern. Still, the 26-year-old is a 20/40/.250 threat.
One of eight players to hit more than 100 home runs over the last three seasons, but embarrassing strikeout rate (39.5 percent since 2008) and paltry batting average (.198 in ‘10, .234 since ‘08) limit his fantasy value.
Yet power/speed combo at the hot corner cannot be ignored. In a loaded Baltimore lineup at the hitter-friendly Camden Yards, 35/100/10/.245 is likely.
Improved batting eye (.257 batting average , 11.1 walk rate in ‘10) fueled near-30/30 season. 25 HRs and 25 steals are reasonable again, though he’s unlikely to top a .260 batting average.
Last year’s ridiculous home/road splits suggest he won’t fare as well at the neutral Nationals Park in a less-potent lineup.
Career numbers at Camden Yards (23 runs, nine HRs, 30 RBI, .333/.400/.611 in 126 at-bats) suggest the move from Arlington won’t hurt his value much.
Surprising durability (at least 520 at-bats in six of the last seven seasons) indicates he’s capable of his seventh season of 27 HRs, 90 RBI and a .300 batting average in the last eight years.
The top 100 on our 2011 Big Board will be announced in the coming days as we continue our journey to rank the top 100 players!
ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS
Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:
- Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Projections
- Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
- Nos. 61-70: Weaver, Haren or Latos?
- Nos. 71-80: Young, McGehee or Ramirez?
Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
- 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training Injury Report
- Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
- Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?
30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:
MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact: