2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 90: Vladimir Guerrero Will Thrive at Camden Yards

Nick KappelAnalyst IIIMarch 17, 2011

SARASOTA, FL - MARCH 05:  Designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero #27 of the Baltimore Orioles smiles during batting practice just before the start of the Grapefruit League Spring Training Game against the Boston Red Sox at Ed Smith Stadium on March 5, 2011 in Sarasota, Florida.  (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)
J. Meric/Getty Images

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

While most fantasy managers may jump off the Vlad bandwagon, knowing that 81 games in Arlington are no longer possible, Camden Yards might actually be a better place for the 36-year-old to hit.

In 32 career games at Camden Yards, Guerrero has posted the following line:

  • 126 at-bats, 23 runs, 9 HR, 30 RBI, .333/.400/.611

In fact, Vlad has a better AB/HR rate at Camden (14.0) than he does in Arlington (16.8).

Further, Camden Yards (fifth) ranked ahead of Rangers Ballpark (seventh) in home-run friendliness last season, according to ESPN’s MLB Park Factors.

Guerrero will DH and bat cleanup in a surprisingly potent Orioles lineup that now includes: Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Derek Lee, Mark Reynolds and Adam Jones, not to mention Luke Scott and Matt Wieters.

It seems as though the only thing standing between Vlad and his seventh season of at least 27 HR, 90 RBI and a .300 batting average in the last eight years is his health.

Despite entering his age-36 season, Vlad has been surprisingly durable in recent years, collecting at least 520 at-bats in six of the last seven seasons.

Guerrero’s 79 ADP on Mock Draft Central suggests fantasy managers are buying another strong year. He doesn’t appear on the Yahoo! Composite rankings, however, leading me to believe not everyone is clued in on Guerrero’s potential in Camden Yards.

Vlad still whiffs at more pitches outside of the zone than anyone and has some of the lowest walk and strikeout rates in baseball, but there’s every reason to believe he’s capable of at least 25 HR, 100 RBI and a .300 batting average in 2011.


2010 stats 643 83 29 115 4 .300
3-year average 550 76 24 85 4 .300
2011 FBI Forecast 600 80 25 100 3 .304



Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact: