2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 87: Mark Reynolds Will Bounce Back Despite Average

Nick KappelAnalyst IIIMarch 16, 2011

SARASOTA, FL - MARCH 07:  Infielder Mark Reynolds #12 of the Baltimore Orioles doubles against the New York Yankees during a Grapefruit League Spring Training Game at Ed Smith Stadium on March 7, 2011 in Sarasota, Florida.  (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)
J. Meric/Getty Images

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Over the last three seasons, Mark Reynolds is one of eight players to hit more than 100 home runs. The other seven players all rank among the top 54 on my 2011 big board, but Reynolds' embarrassing strikeout rate (39.5 percent since 2008) and paltry batting average (.198 in ‘10, .234 since ‘08) limit his fantasy value.

Yet despite this, Reynolds’ power/speed combo at the hot corner cannot be ignored. Let’s not forget, his 2009 campaign (98 runs, 44 HRs, 102 RBI, 24 steals, .260 average) made him a popular top-20 pick at this time last season.

Reynolds’ .257 BABIP in 2010 (career .323), in addition to a more realistic 19.9 HR/FB rate (26.0 percent in ‘09), yielded just 79 runs, 32 HRs, 85 RBI, seven steals, and the second-lowest batting average (.198) among qualified batters.

Looking forward to 2011 in Camden Yards (the fifth-most home run-friendly park last season according to MLB Park Factors), batting sixth in a loaded Baltimore lineup, Reynolds should hit at least 35 HRs.

Given a normalized BABIP, his batting average should creep back into the .240 range. Ideal? No. But when it comes with nearly 100 RBI and 10 steals at the thin third base position, it definitely warrants value.

Reynolds’ current ADP on Mock Draft Central is 133, though Yahoo! Composite ranks him at 89, much closer to where I have him pegged.

2010 stats5967932857.198
3-year average62488359514.234
2011 FBI Forecast60585359510.244



Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact: