2011 Fantasy Baseball: Rickie Weeks Will Be a Bust
Rickie Weeks dominated in 2010.
His final stats of 112/29/83/11 and triple slash line of .269/.366/.464 were impressive to say the least.
According to Fangraphs, Rickie's 6.1 WAR ranked him behind only Robinson Cano for qualified second basemen in 2010.
So, what makes me think he is a bust?
From 2003-2009, Rickie Weeks had averaged a .300 BABIP with a .247 AVG. Last year, he cashed in on a .332 BABIP for a .269 AVG. The .332 BABIP was unsupported by his 15.4 percent line-drive rate.
Prior to 2010, Rickie Weeks had never hit more than 16 home runs and his HR/FB rate was 12.5 percent. In 2010, he posted a HR/FB rate of 17.3 percent which is Dan Uggla and Alex Rodriguez territory.
Rickie Weeks will not hit 29 home runs again.
Since he strikes out at such an alarming rate (28.3 percent in 2010), driving in 83 RBI from the leadoff spot in a NL lineup will be very difficult to replicate and scoring 112 runs won't be any picnic either.
According to Hittracker, Rickie Weeks hit 11 "Just Enough" home runs last year compared to only four "No Doubts."
Which second baseman will have a better fantasy season in 2011?
The nine other NL players who hit four "No Doubts" were: Colby Rasmus, Brian McCann, Hanley Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Will Venable, Brandon Phillips, Pedro Alvarez, Marlon Byrd and Juan Uribe.
Of those nine players, not a single batter was lucky enough to hit as many "Just Enoughs" than Rickie Weeks. For comparison, the average number of "Just Enoughs" for the nine players mentioned was 6.77.
Injuries have plagued Rickie Weeks throughout his career.
The only year he surpassed 475 official at bats was 2010.
In 2006, he suffered a season-ending wrist injury. In 2007, he hit the DL for another wrist injury. In 2008, he landed on the DL for a left knee injury and, in 2009, he had a long stint on the DL for another wrist injury.
Keep in mind that these are only the DL stints. He has also missed games for minor issues such as a stomach virus, a thumb injury and index finger injury.
Do you really think he would have played 160 games in 2010 if it wasn't a contract year?
According to MockDraftCentral, Rickie's current ADP is 40.5. Rickie Weeks was the 38th ranked player in Yahoo last year.
By drafting him at pick 40, you are projecting him to repeat 2010!
He is being taken before Justin Upton (41.4), Andrew McCutchen (43.9), Adam Dunn (46), Buster Posey (45.1), Justin Morneau (50.2) and all but four starting pitchers.
For some reason, he is being drafted before other second basemen such as Dan Uggla (51.7) and Ian Kinsler (50.5).
Projection: .251 AVG, 89 R, 17 HR, 59 RBI, 13 SB
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