The 2011 Kentucky Derby is less than eight weeks away and it’s March Madness at this point for anyone to think they know who is going to win on the first Saturday in May.
It’s difficult enough to pick the winner on the day of the race when you know all the participants and can evaluate them against each other.
Two months before the Derby two years ago was anyone talking about Mine That Bird?
At this stage of the game, getting in the starting gate at Churchill Downs is still a major obstacle. Just ask the connections for last year’s Uncle Mo ... Eskendereya.
He suffered a career-ending injury two weeks before the big race, but that didn’t prevent his trainer Todd Pletcher, who also trains ‘Mo, from capturing his first run for the roses with Super Saver.
The only thing that is certain is the uncertainty, as flashes in the pan are impossible to predict. The last two winners I mentioned are winless since their Derby glory.
Maybe the worst wager in all of sports is a Kentucky Derby future, since the actual odds you should be getting are probably five times what you are locking yourself in at.
That being said, everyone has an opinion, so I’ll throw my hat in the ring with how I see things at this point.
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