Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: 2011 Offensive Busts
What is a fantasy bust?
There are many factors that go into a bust.
The player may not even be on a Major League Baseball roster.
When you bring the fantasy sports aspects of baseball into the equation, like draft position, potential and type of fantasy league, you will find many names that may shock you.
Don’t get me wrong: I wouldn’t mind owning Mauer, but not if I have to draft him 20th overall, his current ADP on Mock Draft Central.
You could wait a round and get Victor Martinez, or wait 10 rounds and get Carlos Santana or Miguel Montero, all of whom will hit more home runs than Mauer, and with decent batting averages.
Werth moves to a less hitter-friendly park and he moves into a weaker lineup. He will have good lineup protection with Ryan Zimmerman hitting behind him, but he may not have consistent RBI opportunities like he did in Philadelphia.
Werth should see a regression in his batting average as well after his BABIP went up nearly 50 points from 2009 to 2010. Werth is a solid player, but perhaps not a top 10 outfielder with the Nationals.
You will be paying for Weeks’ awesome 2010 numbers if you plan on drafting him in 2011.
Weeks never hit more than 16 home runs in his career before he exploded with 29 a year ago. Drafters seem to be forgetting about his injury history as well.
As I’ve pointed out, second base is pretty deep, so you don’t need to take a risk on Weeks.
Age and injuries are responsible for his decline and I see this season being no different. He has the capability of having a huge year, but I just don’t see it happening.
He’s not worth the fourth-round pick, which is his current ADP (MockDraftCentral).
Beltre will turn 32 in April and he is on the back end of his prime. He is notorious for putting up huge stats during contract years, which was last year. After his monstrous 2004 (.334, 48 HR, 121 RBI), Beltre hit just .255 with 19 home runs a year later.
While I don’t expect that much of a drop off, I do expect a regression in his batting average. Beltre had a BABIP of .331, which is over 30 points higher than his career average.
Expect his average to drop back to around his career average of .275. Beltre is not a bad option, but you will be paying for last year’s stats if you want him.
What we have here is a 35-year-old first baseman. If he goes back to the old Konerko, he wouldn’t be a starting first baseman on a 15-team league.
He is coming off a contract year and now has Adam Dunn in the lineup to take away from some of those RBI.
If you draft Konerko, you shouldn’t be expecting his 2010 numbers—he is on the decline of his career.
After driving in 141 runs in 2009, Prince laid an egg in 2010 with only 83 RBI. More troubling is that Fielder had 146 at bats with runners in scoring position, hitting only .233 with two home runs in those situations.
There should be a rebound from Fielder, but with his consistently low average, there are better options at first base, especially at an ADP of 20.
Coming in at an ADP of 22 at the moment, it seems people are forgetting that Zimmerman has missed 82 games over the last three seasons. This includes the last three weeks of the season last year, when head-to-head leagues have playoffs.
Should he put up big numbers? Yes! Will he put them up every week for you? No! You do not want your second pick of the draft on the disabled list.
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