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March Madness 2011 Predictions Depends On Which Teams Get The Best Guard Play

If you took a gander at Mike Wise's bracket column from the Washington Post yesterday, you saw a lot of reasons why you probably shouldn't pick a bracket with your heart instead of your head.

But as he was making his point, there was one line that really struck with me and laid out what makes the best tournament teams successful.

"My heart roots for the 6-foot-6 centers; my head says pick the 6-foot-6 point guards." Wise wrote.

And taking that into account, it really does make a big difference.

Having a great post game can be a great asset in the tournament. Let's put it this way: No team in the tournament is going to turn down having a player like Jared Sullinger on the floor for them. Forward play can be a big equalizer, especially when it comes to rebounding the basketball.

But at the end of the day, the National Championship winners also need guard play. Kansas had Mario Chalmers, North Carolina had Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton, Duke had Nolan Smith last year and Jason Williams once upon a time. Syracuse had Carmelo Anthony but it also had Gerry McNamara.

Ultimately, when the seconds are ticking down and the game is on the line, the guards are going to have the ball in their hands. Whatever happens on that last possession, the guards will have some influence in what happens, whether they distribute the ball or end up taking the last shot.

There are some who say you need stars to win the NCAA Tournament, and that's definitely true. Many of the more recent National Champions had at least one star player, but when it comes down to it, the guard play has to be strong too.

So when you look at this year's bracket, who stands out in terms of guard play? Duke and Ohio State right off the bat. The Blue Devils have Nolan Smith, who's been phenomenal all season and the Buckeyes have a whole host of guards who can be dangerous. Of course BYU and UConn will come up as well, among others.

They don't have to be star guards, but they have to be good enough to support the team when the main option is taken away and they have to be able to step up when needed. 

The star guard might not end up winning the National Championship, but the team that does will do so because of their guards rather than in spite of them.

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March Madness 2011 Predictions Can Be Swayed Either Direction By Emotions

Let's be honest, when you're filling out your bracket, you've all had that voice in the back of your head giving you advice. You know the one I'm talking about, it wants you have Duke be the first No. 1 to lose to a No. 16 for example. Or it wants you to pick the school that hasn't been in the Tournament in a decade because it happens to be your alma mater.

Again, just an example.

But, as much as we do try to admit it, our own emotions and predispositions can have an effect when you're filling out a bracket. It's very hard to pick against your school or if you're not a fan of a particular school, you might be tempted to pick against them to see said school lose.

What I'm saying is, while it might be validating, not too often does it turn out well.

Mike Wise of the Washington Post had an interesting column on the same topic, relating it to how he fights his heart and his head when it comes to brackets. And the fact of the matter is, he's right. Bracketology is a fickle science, one that can play on emotion and luck. But it also works on logic and on matchups.

Really, how probable is it that Duke will lose to a No. 16 seed? If you believe in probability, then the statistics will say it'll happen eventually. But there's little to suggest it'll happen this year. 

There's no problem with using your heart to make picks. Sometimes they work out phenomenally. But just don't be surprised when it backfires, either. It may sound cliche, but a lot of times the logical choice is the way to go.

No matter how much it might hurt.

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March Madness 2011 Predictions Involving The Florida Gators Are A Risky Proposition

The Florida Gators have been an interesting team to watch all year.

They were highly ranked coming into the season, and with good reason. They still do have one of the better starting lineups around with Chandler Parsons and Kenny Boynton among others. But they haven't done anything to really garner that much love. They were crushed by 18 at home against Ohio State and while they do have a win against Kansas State, that was when the Wildcats were starting their mid-season funk.

Let's put it this way, for the games they won against ranked teams, Kentucky beat them twice, including the big win in the SEC Title Game yesterday. Yet Florida is a No. 2 seed while the SEC Champion Kentucky is a No. 4.

This isn't a witch-hunt against the Gators (although it may seem like it), but what have the Gators done this season other than a couple of nice wins to get to where they are. Watching them this season, they seem too much at times like a team that doesn't play up to its potential. Now unless something drastic happens, it's probably not going to manifest itself against UC-Santa Barbara.

But two things we've learned about Florida this year is that they need to shoot well to win and that bigs can handle them. Jared Sullinger owned the Gators when they met early in the season, and Trey Thompkins had a big game against them as well.

If the Gators can get the outside shot going, they have a very good chance of competing with anybody. But when they throw up threes, they can get in trouble, especially if they get cold and stop passing the ball.

There's no questioning the Gators have the talent to make a run. But considering their season to date, I would be cautious to put them in the Final Four while you're making your bracket. That being said, if they can play up to their potential, they could be very dangerous.

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March Madness 2011 Predictions Can Factor In Which Announcer Is Calling The Games

So during the past NFL Season, the Sports Guy introduced us to the Law of Gus Johnson. Simmons only defined it as it applies to NFL games, but if you're familiar with the tournament, then you know that madness and phenomenal games just seem to follow Gus around, especially at this time of the season.

Don't believe me? Then just look at his resume during the tournament, including Gonzaga knocking off Florida back in the day ("The Slipper Still Fits"), the epic finish between Gonzaga and UCLA from the 2006 Sweet 16 ("Heartbreak City") and the latest, the Washington-Arizona Pac-10 Title Game.

Then again, maybe it's not just Gus, maybe it's Gus and west coast schools/Gonzaga. 

Either way, the man could make watching paint dry exciting and he just seems to be a magnet for exciting games and wild finishes. How does this involve making out a bracket exactly? We'll if you're looking for perhaps an interesting way to choose an upset, then just follow Gus.

CBS Sports released their announcing pairs for the First Four and the Round of 64 games last night and we found that Johnson will be in Cleveland calling George Mason-Villanova, Ohio State's first round game, Xavier-Marquette and Syracuse-Indiana State.

It's not exactly science, but if history has any indication, then at least one of these games will have a thrilling finish. And if you're looking for that nail-biter, then this might be a good place to look, especially with the George Mason and Xavier games.

Just some food for thought. And if that doesn't come through for you, Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery are usually good for an upset or two also.

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March Madness 2011 Predictions Should Beware Of Teams Coming Off Of Long Tournament Runs

Admit it, you were impressed by what Connecticut did in the Big East Tournament.

After all the Huskies did win five games in five days on the back of one of the best players in the country in Kemba Walker to win the Big East. That's a ton of momentum and that has to count for something, right?

Teams like Connecticut are always risky, because while they have a ton of momentum, one always has to wonder how much a team has left after a run like that. Mac Engel of the Fort-Worth Star-Telegram made that point when making his bracket tips about Connecticut. And I have to agree with him in that regard.

But here's two other reasons to not pick Connecticut.

First, this UConn team of late has been hard to predict in terms of tournament success. Since 2004, the Huskies have made one Final Four and two Regional Finals. But they also had a second-round and first-round loss during that time too. So the Huskies have been a tough team to figure out in terms of the Tournament.

And then of course, lest we forget the story of Syracuse not so long ago. Back in 2006, the Orange won four games in four days to go from probable NIT team to Big East Champion. That was when Gerry McNamara was hitting game-winners and clutch shots left and right to carry the Orange to the title. Everyone jumped on the bandwagon about how hot Syracuse was entering the Big Dance.

That Syracuse team ended up getting knocked out in the First Round by Texas A&M after McNamara went 0-of-6 from the floor and had a grand total of two points.

"I'm not going to make excuses. He's not going to make excuses," Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim told the media after that game, according to the Associated Press. "If you watch the game, you know why he wasn't in the game. Gerry could not make plays tonight. If anything, I played him too much."

So if you want to pick the Huskies for your bracket, there's nothing wrong with that. Just beware that while the Huskies may be hot now, they have to cool down eventually. And recent history will suggest it'll be sooner rather than later.

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March Madness 2011 Predictions Will Depend On Which No. 5 Is Most Likely To Be Upset

Every year, college basketball fans across America are always looking for that first round (now second-round under the new format) upset that can make the bracket work.

And historically, it's always been the 5/12 matchup that's provided it. It sounds cliche, but the most likely upset in the Round of 64 has always been the No. 12 seed over the No. 5 seed. According to the Grand Rapids Press, No. 12 seeds were 41-79 against the No. 5 entering last season, so it's a normal year when one of the No. 5's go down early.

Now the question will be which one will go down this season?

There's Arizona, who lost a heartbreaker against Washington in the Pac-10 Championship Game against Memphis, who needed a big comeback to win the Conference-USA championship. But while Memphis also has some young players, Arizona has a future lottery pick and one of the best players in the country in Derrick Williams. Combine that with the fact that Arizona is 31st in three-pointers per game while Memphis is one of the worst outside shooting teams around, and that doesn't compute.

There's Vanderbilt and Richmond, two teams that score a good amount, can play some defense and shoot very well from the outside. But where it will come down to is rebounding, where Vanderbilt has a +3 rebounding margin while Richmond is -2. That doesn't sound like a lot, but rebounding can be key in the tournament, so Vandy gets the edge there.

There's West Virginia and the winner of USC/Clemson. I like what Clemson can bring, especially with the guard play from Demontez Stitt and West Virginia's had better teams the last couple of seasons than this year's. Still, Bob Huggins finds ways to win games with whatever roster he's had and I still don't trust Clemson to get the job done. I'd keep an eye on that one though.

So that leaves Utah State and Kansas State, and this is the one to look at. Kansas State is the No. 5 here, and they do have a very good guard in Jacob Pullen. But this was a team that almost was NIT bound in January and they've been very hard to get a read on. Utah State, on the other hand, is very tough to play against and has a very good big man in Tai Wesley. 

Doug Gottlieb on ESPN said earlier today that Curtis Kelly can match up with Wesley, but that remains to be seen. What it comes down to is this: Utah State is third in the nation in points allowed per game, sixth in field-goal percentage defense and 19th in three-point defense. Kansas State averages better than 70 points a game. If Kansas State doesn't hit their shots, they're in trouble.

The last two matches will be the closest, but I'd go with Utah State against Kansas State. That's the safest bet for an upset.

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March Madness 2011 Predictions Start With The Time Honored Mascot Duels

Of course, there are many different ways to look at a matchup when writing out a bracket. One can pour over the statistics and all the matchups, staring at shooting percentages and how teams do against certain defenses.

Then there's just looking down and seeing whether a Zip could beat a Fighting Irish.

Yes, the mascot pick. It can seem simplistic and even extremely strange. But how many times have we seen it work to our disbelief? Many times too often to mention. At that point, that's usually when the brackets that have been worked on for hours on end usually get ripped up and tossed in the recycling bin, but we carry on.

As strange as it sounds, a lot of times those strategies work because it plays to what the bracket and what the tournament really is: a game of chance. We can sit here and talk all we want about higher seeds, better guard play, whatever. At the end of the day, it's still college kids playing a single-elimination basketball game. The cliche that any team can win on any given day still holds true.

That being said, there is something cool about trying to pick a mascot. You start getting into all these hypothetical questions, like would a Sycamore beat Otto the Orange? (My money's on Otto since he can throw all his weight around).

But that opens the door to all kinds of bold picks, like say for example a roadrunner (UTSA) beating Brutus Buckeye (Ohio State). Now if that happened on the floor it would be the first time a No. 16 took out a No. 1, so that might be a little brash, but you see the point. Now of course there has to be an equation to all of this as to who would trump who, but that's for you to decide. 

Now unfortunately I can't own the patent to this breakthrough in bracket technology, as ESPN did a mascot bracket a couple of years ago and everyone will have their own opinions. But in a way, that's part of the fun. Or if you believe in statistics, the part that will make you pull your own hair out.

Sometimes when you take the numbers out of it and just go with luck, magical things can happen. And sometimes, all you need is luck.

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