Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.
Over the past few weeks, we’ve announced the top 80 players on our 2011 big board. Click on each player’s name for a more in-depth analysis, including 2011 projections!
Check out our 2011 Big Board Top 50 here.
Check out our 2011 Big Board Nos. 51-60 here.
Check out our 2011 Big Board Nos. 61-70 here.
Returned to near-2006 form last year: 9.44 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 2.66 FIP, 53.6 GB%, with elite plate discipline stats: 34.4 percent o-swing rate, 73.4 percent contact rate, 12.4 percent swinging strike rate. However, injury concerns still linger.
Despite increase in ERA (2.89 in ‘09, 3.33 in ‘10) and decrease in strikeout rate (8.18 to 7.68); marked improvement in walk rate (3.24 to 2.49) is reason for optimism. At age 24, he’s only going to get better.
Average season of: 598 at-bats, 99 runs, 13 HRs, 64 RBI, 37 steals, .294 batting average from 2005 to 2009 before being limited to just 59 games due to neck and back injuries last season.
Appeared to be 100 percent healthy until back spasms resurfaced Friday, foreshadowing a possibly season-long problem.
Low BABIP (.273) in 2010 resulted in career-low .259 batting average. Eighteen HRs and 34 steals, however, remained valuable to fantasy teams.
Given an average amount of luck, 15 HRs and 30 steals, he’s a top-75 player. His run-scoring and run-producing totals will fluctuate based on where he hits.
Versatility should allow him enough playing time to obtain 650 plate appearances in 2011. Assuming he stays in Texas, 100 runs, 20 HRs, .290 batting average is within reach batting between Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton.
2010 totals (23 HRs, 104 RBI, .285 BA) were nearly identical to that of Evan Longoria. Age (28), lineup position (fifth behind Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder), and advanced stats suggest a repeat performance in 2011.
Has averaged 28 HRs, 96 RBI, .295 batting average per since 2004, despite missing 118 games over the last two seasons.
Low BABIP (.245) in 2010 was likely the effect of a league-high 56.8 percent fly-ball rate, which led to career-worst .241 batting average. Expect a bounce-back performance in 2011.
Second-highest fly-ball rate, in conjunction with lowest HR/FB rate since 2005, has led to whacky ERA/FIP/xFIP totals. Apparent fluke has become trend, coupled with improving walk rate and WHIP. Consider me a believer!
Twelve starts with Phillies last year: 1.74 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 7.95 K/9 and 2.29 BB/9. 2010 FIP (3.27) and xFIP (3.45), suggest slight regression in 2011, though he clearly isn’t as bad as 2009 (4.12 ERA, 3.13 career) indicated.
Ninth-best fastball in 2010, but secondary pitches lagged behind. FIP (3.42) and xFIP (3.99) stand out in comparison to his 2.72 ERA, while .270 BABIP supports luck argument. Regression is due in 2011.
The top 90 on our 2011 Big Board will be announced in the coming days as we continue our journey to rank the top 100 players!
ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS
Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:
- Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Projections
- Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
- Nos. 61-70: Weaver, Haren or Latos?
Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
- 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training Injury Report
- Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
- Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?
30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:
MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact: