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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 76: Comparing Casey McGehee to Evan Longoria

CHICAGO - APRIL 15: Casey McGehee of the Milwaukee Brewers, wearing a number 42 jersey in honor of Jackie Robinson, hits the ball against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on April 15, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The Brewers defeated the Cubs 8-6.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Nick KappelAnalyst IIIMarch 9, 2011

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Brewers’ third baseman Casey McGehee proved his 2009 rookie campaign was no fluke last season, blasting 23 HRs with 104 RBI and a .285 batting average.

But nobody seemed to notice.

Prepare yourself for an incredibly tricky, mind-blowing example:

  • Player A, 2010: 22 HRs, 104 RBI, .294 BA
  • Player B, 2010: 23 HRs, 104 RBI, .285 BA

Of course, we already know Player B is McGehee, but who is player A?

Wait for it…

…Evan Longoria. BOOM. (Longoria also inexplicably stole 15 bases last year, but that’s besides the point.)

Yet, despite similar production, McGehee’s current ADP on Mock Draft Central is just 107, while Yahoo! compositeranks him outside the top 100 as well. Of course I’m not suggesting McGehee be drafted among the top 10 picks such as Longoria, but the guy deserves some love.

At a position as thin as third base, any player who can keep a .285 average and knock in 100 runs should be considered a valuable asset. In fact, only Alex Rodriguez and Jose Bautista had more RBI than McGehee from the hot corner in 2010.

Now before you flood the comment box with your “RBI is a fluke category” comment, know that I completely agree. But consider this: McGehee hit .324 with runners in scoring position last season. And oh, he also hit .371 under the same circumstances in 2009. The guy has a knack for big hits at opportune times.

Of course, it’s also worth mentioning that McGehee bats fifth in the Brewers’ lineup behind Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, giving him plenty of chances to drive runs in.

Looking forward to 2011, there’s no reason to believe the 28-year-old won’t continue to produce. McGehee’s walk (7.5 percent) and strikeout rates (16.7 percent) are respectable, and his contact rate (83.9 percent) is well-above average. It’s time to start believing, folks! Draft McGehee as the eighth third basemen, ahead of the now injury-prone Aramis Ramirez, batting average-challenged Mark Reynolds and the out-of-shape Pedro Alvarez, whose current lineup protection includes Matt Diaz and Garret Jones.

 PARHRRBISBAVG
2010 stats67070231041.285
2011 FBI Forecast63075231000.288

 

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