I would like to take this opportunity in the last Chronicle of the 2008 season to thank you for reading. Whether you read from the beginning in March, or picked up at any point through the season, I hope that I was of assistance in your pursuit for fantasy glory.
My goal was not only to bring you trends in player performance, but to go deeper into the numbers and present a more rounded look into a players’ ability, whether they were in the minor leagues, on your waiver wire, or in your starting lineup.
As we finish up 2008, what better is there to do than to start preparing for 2009? We have discussed all of the current major-league worthy fantasy players all season, so this time lets take a look into some names that I have discussed in the Futures Market section, and some new names that have yet to be discussed that could make an impact in 2009.
Each season, we all want to know who will be the next great rookie that we can find cheap and will help us win the big prize at the end of the season. So, without further ado, who will be next season’s Evan Longoria, Alexei Ramirez, Joba Chamberlain, Armando Galarraga, Mike Aviles, Jacoby Ellsbury, Chris Davis, Brad Ziegler, Nick Blackburn, Ben Francisco, David Murphy, Denard Span, or Matt Joyce?
That may be a long list, but there are always numerous rookies that at various times throughout a season are important factors in a fantasy season. This was most of them from the American League this year. Here is a list of who may be mentioned in this same manner next year.
Catcher—Matt Wieters, BAL
If you’ve read my column this summer, you know how much I love Matt Wieters. I would even dare say that he could become the top fantasy catcher as soon as he has the full-time job in Baltimore. All he did this season was destroy minor-league pitching at a .355/.454/.600 clip.
Those splits include 27 home runs, 91 RBI, 89 runs scored, and an excellent 82-to-76 walk-to-strikeout ratio. And he didn’t even falter upon his promotion to AA Bowie. There, Wieters hit for a higher average (.365 to .345), higher OBP (.460 to .448), and higher SLG (.625 to .576).
Looking deeper, Wieters hit for an excellent .383 BABIP at both Single-A Fredricktown and AA Bowie, had a combined 15.8 percent walk rate, a combined 17.4 percent strikeout rate (only 13 percent in AA), a groundball rate of 48 percent, and a home run every 16.1 at-bats. With these rates, it is easier to see why he is already being compared to Mike Piazza.
The question entering 2009 will be if he is the starting catcher from day one or if it will be later in the season. However, it seems a forgone conclusion that it will be next year, as he manhandled AA pitching at the age of 22. With that said, pay attention to his name, because if Ramon Hernandez does get traded this offseason, Wieters needs to be in your top-five catchers come draft time.
First Base—Kila Ka’aihue, KC
Alright, raise your hand if you had heard of Ka’aihue before this season. I bet there are not many of you who do. Heck, I hadn’t heard of him either. He was a career .256 hitter in the minor leagues, with a career high of 21 home runs.
What a difference a year makes. Time will only tell, but Ka’aihue’s breakout is slightly reminiscent of Geovanny Soto’s 2007 breakout from obscurity.
Before Ka’aihue’s September call-up to the Royals, in which he hit .286 with a home run in 21 at-bats, Ka’aihue hit .314 with 37 home runs and 100 RBI between AA and AAA.
He not only continued to showcase an excellent command of the strike zone, walking 20.5 percent of the time and only striking out 16.7 percent of the time, but his BABIP bounced back to a more standard .300-plus average, which allowed his batting average to recover.
The road is fairly open for the Hawaiian slugger, with only Ross Gload and Ryan Shealy in front of him. I am certainly not counting on either of them to keep the gig throughout 2009.
So, when you hear Ka’aihue named as the starting first baseman in Kansas City, it may end up being bigger news than you initially think. At least that’s what some of us looking for sleepers are hoping.
Second Base—Eric Patterson, OAK
In a light position for prospect talent in the American League, I had to dip a little deeper. Not actually to be considered a rookie for 2009 (he will be eight at-bats over the limit), Eric Patterson is a young middle infielder to watch, who will get regular playing time in the Oakland infield, as Mark Ellis is likely a parting free agent.
Patterson does not have the potential to become a top-of-the-line second baseman statistically, but in terms of his draft status going into 2009, he could become a sleeper pick because of his good speed and rather unfortunate .192 batting average this season.
That was partially because of a low .258 BABIP, when his standard has been over .330. He also has a solid history of hitting over .300 in the minor leagues with an OPS of .840.
The only drawback to Patterson is that he struck out an unusually high 25 percent of the time this season, as compared to a usual 16-20 percent range. If he can get that back to a manageable rate, he could be a .275 hitter with 10-15 home runs and 20-30 steals. Not bad potential for someone who likely will be undrafted next year.
Third Base—Wes Hodges, CLE
The Indians are currently void of anything remotely representing a fantasy player at the hot corner. They traded away their only productive third baseman in Casey Blake at the deadline, and Andy Marte can officially be written off as a bust. With that said, where do the Indians go for help?
Will they resign Blake in the offseason? Will they move Peralta to third, as some have suggested they should? Well, the answer may be right in front of them.
The Indians’ farm system has two third baseman, Beau Mills and Wes Hodges, that should be ready in the next two years, with Hodges likely ready to log some time in the Indians infield next season, if no free agent is signed from a really weak class at the position.
Hodges is a former second-round pick from 2006 that played this season in AA Akron, hitting .290 with 18 home runs and 97 RBI. He does not project to have much more than average power at the position, but is a hitter who has plus on-base skills.
He will initially only be worth tracking in AL-only leagues, but the potential is there to be more than a waiver wire player.
Shortstop—Reid Brignac, TB
Next year will be a big season for Brignac, if he gets the opportunity in Tampa or not. The incumbent shortstop, Jason Bartlett, is a free agent after the season, leaving a chance that Brignac could find himself with an opportunity if Bartlett should not re-sign.
Brignac has seen his status drop over the past two seasons, as his batting average and power numbers have plummeted to a .250 average and nine home runs this season, but just two short years ago, Brignac was hitting over .300 with 24 home runs and 15 stolen bases between Single and Double-A.
The power numbers, though down, are a bit misleading, because he missed time with a broken wrist this season. He also had trouble with an uncharacteristic 26 percent strikeout rate, which directly led to the decrease in batting average.
If he gets the shot in Spring Training next season at playing in Tampa, and you see his strikeout rate hovering around a usual 16-20 percent, Brignac is a solid sleeper pick.
Outfield—Travis Snider, TOR
This one should not be a surprise to anyone that has seen this guy hit. Snider, listed among the top-10 prospects in the entire league, climbed three levels of minor-league competition to land in the Blue Jays' outfield as a regular to end the season.
He started in High-A Dunedin before a quick promotion to AA New Hampshire, where he hit a modest .262 with 17 home runs before another promotion to Syracuse led to a .344 batting average and two home runs there. Then, with Toronto, Snider hit .301 with two home runs and 13 RBI in 73 at-bats. That’s a lot of movement in one season.
Put it all together and his numbers are .279 with 25 homers and 104 RBI.
Scouts rave about Snider’s potential as a run-producing, middle-of-the-order bat that will produce not only power, but also a good average to boot. My only concern is of his major issues with the strikeout, 177 times in 560 combined at-bats.
This will certainly be a limit on his batting average, as it was in his time at AA, where the majority of his at-bats occurred, but to counteract this, Snider has a tremendous BABIP track record of just under .400.
While I like his potential, I am not 100 percent sold enough to spend a higher draft pick that I am sure he will command in 2009. Regardless, there is no doubting his tremendous potential and the fact that he will be a force in the league for years to come.
Outfield— Nolan Reimold, BAL
Nagging injuries have slowed this young slugger's career. Drafted in the second round of the 2005 amateur draft, Reimold is soon to turn 25 and is yet to make it out of AA. That will change next year, after Reimold had a productive full-season for AA Bowie.
In over 500 at-bats, he hit .284 with 25 home runs and 84 RBI. He also showed plus on-base skills, with a 0.77 BB/K ratio.
Reimold will start the 2009 season in AAA, awaiting a call to the big club, as the Orioles are again set to start the season with a Luke Scott, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis outfield. Even with that said, I am not going to rule him out of earning or taking a job from someone.
Aubrey Huff will likely be moved to first base with Kevin Millar a free agent, leaving the designated-hitter position open. Whether that is Luke Scott or not is to be seen, but when Reimold does make the jump to Baltimore, he is a potential .290 hitter with 25-home-run power.
Outfield—Matt LaPorta, CLE
The much-heralded power-hitting prospect will be one step closer to the big show next season. Best guess is that LaPorta will begin 2009 in AAA Columbus (now Indians affiliate) as a final tune-up until a roster spot opens up on the Tribe.
The Indians have been quiet thus far about their intentions in positioning LaPorta, who could become either a first baseman or left fielder. The emergence of Shin-Soo Choo in left for the Indians may be making their decision a bit easier, with Ryan Garko not progressing as hoped at first.
So, as of right now, all signs point to LaPorta becoming the Indians' first baseman in the near future, but if there were an injury in the outfield, he could end up there as well.
What is not up for debate, however, is LaPorta’s game-changing power and potential to be an elite run producer. He may have struggled late in the season after being acquired by Cleveland, but during his brief time in the Milwaukee system, he hit .293 with 32 home runs and 97 RBI in 114 games.
He hit a home run once every 13 at-bats. That is pretty impressive. Just as Evan Longoria was this season, it may be worth a draft and wait until LaPorta is promoted. Once he is, you will reap the benefits.
Pitcher—David Price, TB
Not too many pitchers come along with the sort of hype that this former Vanderbilt left-hander possesses. Drafted first overall in 2007, Price began his professional career in Single-A Vero Beach this season before accenting through the ranks to finish with Tampa as many had projected he would.
Price backed up his glowing scouting reports with 123.2 innings of excellent work over four levels of competition. He finishes the 2008 regular season with a cumulative 12-1 record and 2.26 ERA. He also has 121 strikeouts to just 36 walks, which is a very good 3.4 K/BB ratio. Add in his groundball tendency and Price, even as a rookie, should give some very promising numbers next season.
There is no way that he will not be in the rotation at some point early in the season. Edwin Jackson is a free agent, and there is no way that, if he is re-signed, that he or Andy Sonnanstine will be able to hold off the inevitable take over of Price and or Jeremy Hellickson/Wade Davis (both of whom I like as sleeper picks).
Bid with confidence in drafts that on a very good Tampa Bay team that Price, barring any injuries or unforeseen extreme struggles, will have a shot at 15 wins, plus strikeout numbers, and a mid-three ERA as a rookie.
Pitcher—Gio Gonzalez, OAK
Gonzalez’ first experience above AA was not as successful as hoped after leading the minor leagues in strikeouts in 2007. Gonzalez began 2008 in AAA Sacramento, where he appeared in 23 games with an 8-7 ERA and 4.26 ERA before being promoted into a depleted Oakland rotation in early August.
In hindsight, it was probably too soon to promote Gonzalez, as he had yet to completely figure out AAA hitters, but going forward, he is still a pitcher to pay attention to.
He has excellent strikeout rates and a groundball tendency, which is a good combination to have. The important stat to watch with Gonzalez going forward will be his walk and home-run rates.
He has allowed nine home runs in his brief 34 innings with Oakland, and he has walked over six batters per nine innings. Both of those numbers are way above historical minor-league rates, as you would expect.
If Gonzalez can settle in during Spring Training and earn a spot in the rotation for 2009, and keep his walk/home run rates reasonable, he will be a player to watch and start for some strikeouts.
Pitcher—Michael Bowden, BOS
All of the talk early in the season was about Clay Buchholz and his immense talent, but by the end of the season, Michael Bowden was making waves in the Red Sox's organization. Bowden does not have the strikeout ability of Buchholz, but he has better command of the zone and keeps his pitches down in the zone, which has limited the number of home runs allowed.
In his major-league debut, Bowden earned a victory with a five-inning, two-run performance against the White Sox.
He began the season in AA Portland, where he went 9-4 with a 2.33 ERA and 101 strikeouts to 24 walks before being promoted to Pawtucket. He did not enjoy the same amount of success there, but he still managed a 3.38 ERA in 40 innings of work while maintaining an excellent K/BB ratio.
Bowden will be in the running for the fifth-starter job in Spring Training, but he will most likely begin in AAA and be the first guy called up when someone is needed. If he is lucky enough to find a way into the rotation for an extended period of time, give Bowden a look; he may just stick and surprise.
Pitcher—Kevin Mulvey, MIN
The Minnesota Twins always seem to find good young pitching to plug into their rotation that gives solid innings while not hurting the team’s chance at winning. See the entire rotation this year.
Mulvey is another of the prospects brought in by the Johan Santana deal to New York last offseason. He has four pitches that he can throw for strikes consistently, which enables him to keep the ball on the ground and in the yard. Mulvey pitched the entire 2008 season for AAA Rochester, where he went 7-9 with a 3.77 ERA.
Nothing extravagant, but it was his first season above AA, and Mulvey actually increased his strikeout rate to a career high 7.36 per nine innings.
If Mulvey maintains his current strikeout rate and finds a way to return to his extreme groundball tendencies (career low 40 percent GB as compared to numbers as high as 55 percent previously), he should find an opportunity in the Twins' rotation by midseason. Once there, he could be next year’s Nick Blackburn or better.
Pitcher—David Huff, CLE
As if the Indians need another talented left-handed pitcher in their rotation. Huff, who has yet to make his major-league debut, will compete for a starting job in Spring Training next year. The only reason that he did not make a start in Cleveland this season was because he is not yet on the 40-man roster, and the fact that the Indians wanted to limit his innings total.
In 146.1 innings split between two levels, Huff was 11-5 with a 2.52 ERA and 143 strikeouts to 29 walks. He is being compared to Cliff Lee because of his excellent K/BB ratio, which was as high as 5.40 in AAA.
He could be one of the most intriguing rookie pitchers in next year's draft pool because he will not be thought of as highly as a David Price, so the opportunity is there for a bigger bargain.
If Huff earns a starting job behind Lee, Fausto Carmona, and Anthony Reyes to start the season, make a move to add him and his excellent changeup. He may just become the Indians No. 2 starter by year's end.
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