Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.
After posting 28 HRs and 102 RBI with a whopping .321 batting average for the Boston Red Sox last season, Adrian Beltre cashed in with a six-year, $96 million deal with the Texas Rangers this offseason.
Despite the popular belief that Beltre is motivated solely by contract years, FanGraph’s Dave Cameron recently disproved this theory.
A peak at Beltre’s plate discipline stats unveil some interesting recent trends (save the 2009 season, which saw him spend 55 days on the DL due to groin and shoulder injuries):
2007: 17.5 percent
2008: 16.2 percent
2010: 13.9 percent
2007: 77.2 percent
2008: 80.5 percent
2010: 82.8 percent
Swinging Strike Rate:
2007: 11.9 percent
2008: 9.6 percent
2010: 8.8 percent
Beltre actually appears to be improving at the plate, whiffing less and making better contact. His tendency to hack at pitches outside the zone, however, is among the worst in the majors.
Looking forward to 2011, Beltre’s career numbers at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington provide some encouragement. In 51 games (219 at-bats) there, the soon-to-be 32-year-old has hit .306 with nine homers and 34 RBI.
Beltre is unlikely to repeat his .331 BABIP (.294 career) of last season, but a normal clip should yield a .280 batting average.
Batting either fourth or fifth in the Rangers potent lineup puts 25 HRs and 90 RBI well within reach.
Beltre suffered a mild calf strain early this spring, and was thought to be out for up to a month. The Rangers, however, believe it’s a “10- to 14-day injury” and expect he’ll be ready to play March 10.
At a very thin third base position, Beltre offers above-average power numbers with a batting average that won’t hurt your team.
He’s the sixth-ranked player at the hot corner on our 2011 big board, No. 64 overall.
|2011 FBI Forecast||625||80||26||90||5||.282|
ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS
30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:
Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training Injury Report
Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?
Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:
Top 50 (projections included): Is Pujols Still the Top Pick?
Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
No. 61: Carlos Santana
No. 62: Buster Posey
No. 63: Kendry Morales
MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:
Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options