Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Kansas Speedway

Fool me once, Greg Biffle, shame on you, but you’re not fooling me two weeks in a row.

Neither are you, Matt Kenseth, my dark horse pick of last week, or Carl Edwards, who I called a “no-brainer,” or Jeff Gordon, who was “reasonably near the front” all day, just like I said.

In other words, I had a heck of a week last week at Dover, when most of my picks finished right around where I expected them to.

Kansas, however, is a whole different animal. The Car of Today has never raced at the relatively new track, and as such, it’s a little more difficult to predict who’s going to finish where based on past races alone.

A good barometer for where Chase drivers are going to finish might be the July race at Chicagoland Speedway, a track very similar in design to Kansas.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 drivers this week at Kansas:

1. Carl Edwards

Carl didn’t finish too well at Chicagoland, ending up 32nd after falling a lap down, although he did lead with as little as 60 laps to go. He finished third here in 2005 and sixth in 2006, although he crashed out with Tony Stewart last year and wound up 37th.

Keep in mind that from the first race at Richmond until now, a span of 19 races, Carl has only finished outside of the Top 10 three times. Based on momentum alone, it’s hard to go wrong with picking Edwards this weekend.

2. Jimmie Johnson

Jimmie’s average starting position at Kansas is a fantastic 5.5, but his average finish is 12.0, and he hasn’t ever really contended for the win here except in 2006, when Stewart passed him with five laps to go.

Johnson has been pretty hot since finishing 2nd at Chicagoland, however; so he should at least be good for a Top 10 finish.

3. Greg Biffle

In the last six races at Kansas, Da Biff has the most points of anyone, with 849. He won here last year, and he’s won the last two races this year. He also finished fourth at Chicagoland this year.

Nobody in the garage has more momentum coming into this weekend, and a career average finish of 11.0 (which bumps up to 6.0 if you only count his starts in Roush Fenway vehicles) says that Biffle will contend for three wins in a row on Sunday.

4. Jeff Burton

Aside from a fifth here in 2006, there hasn’t really been much for Burton to smile about at Kansas.

It’s not exactly easy to predict where Burton will finish this week either, because his finishes have been all over the place since joining RCR: 15th in 2004, 28th in 2005, fifth in 2006, and 36th last year.

Burton also finished 19th at Chicagoland, despite starting the race third. Be wary of the AT&T team this weekend, if only because Burton could either be a huge hit or huge miss this weekend.

5. Kevin Harvick

Happy is fifth all-time in points scored at Kansas, with 827. He’s only failed to complete 109 laps at the track, and 107 were because his car overheated in 2004.

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