The top four teams in the country - and all four of my No. 1 seeds - lost last week, but only one school lost its spot on the top line.
Pittsburgh fell by one point at St. John's on Saturday and while the Panthers' six RPI top-25 wins remain tied for the best total in the nation, the rest of their resume doesn't compare favorably to Kansas, Ohio State, Texas (despite a head-to-head win) or newcomer BYU.
The Cougars benefited greatly from big wins this past week by teams they defeated earlier in the season (Utah State and Arizona) and so BYU is now 3-0 against the RPI top 25. The Cougars' RPI (3), strength of schedule (22), record versus the top 50 (7-1), record versus the top 100 (11-2) and road/neutral record (14-2) are all better than what appears on Pitt's resume.
So now that we know the top seeds, what other 64 teams fill out the bracket?
As always, I am not trying to guess how teams will finish the year. I am simply seeding them based on their current résumés.
I like to break teams down into three categories:
1. "Wallflowers" are bubble teams because everyone wants to get into the Big Dance, but not all have the guts to ask a girl out onto the dance floor.
2. Elite teams are safely in the field—"Dancing with a Hottie."
3. In the middle are the schools that are "Dancing with Their Sister."
Last year, I placed 22nd out of 83 bracketologists across the country in my final projections, ahead of Joe Lunardi of ESPN, Yahoo!, Rivals.com and the two other guys from Bleacher Report.
You can also check out my projections on FoxSports.com.
The tournament will be expanding from 65 to 68 teams for the first time this year, and while that is completely ridiculous, at least it's not 96 teams. Because of this, I'll begin my projections this season with my two First Four at-large matchups. The two First Four automatic bid games will be listed at the bottom of this article.
(12a) Boston College vs. (12d) Southern Miss
(12b) Colorado State vs. (12c) Marquette
First 13 teams out: Nebraska, Richmond, VCU, Michigan, Valparaiso, Alabama, Wichita State, Virginia Tech, Baylor, Clemson, Gonzaga, UTEP, Duquesne
The projections are presented in slideshow format, with each major conference receiving its own slide. First up is the ACC.