Strikeforce Fedor vs. Silva: Quarterfinal Odds on Who Will Get Submitted
The first bouts of arguably the most anticipated series of events in the history of Strikeforce is going to kick off this Saturday night.
As if you already didn't know, the first two fights of the quarterfinals will be going down as Fedor Emelianenko faces Antonio Silva, and Andrei Arlovski will be throwing down against Sergei Karitonov.
With the mix of different fighting styles involved in the tournament, there will surely be some great knockouts, submissions and maybe even a boring decision thrown in here and there.
It goes without saying that Fedor Emelianenko, Fabricio Werdum and Josh Barnett are the best ground fighters in the tournament, but could there be a sleeper somewhere that could pull a magical submission out of their hind end?
So now, Jason the Greek will attempt to put betting odds on each fighter's chance of getting submitted. Please feel free to use these odds to win a bunch of Oreos from your friends.
Odds of getting submitted: 40/1
Even though Fedor officially has two losses on his record, one of those losses came in a RINGS event where he suffered a cut. Under RINGS rules, a fighter lost by TKO should they suffer a cut at any time during the fight.
The other loss was the infamous "triangle heard around the road" that Fabricio Werdum slapped on him to hand Fedor his first true loss.
While Antonio Silva is a very large man with great ground game, Fedor has faced and defeated much better ground fighters during his illustrious career. While it's not out of the realm of possibility, it is highly unlikely.
Since a majority of Silva's victories have came by way of (T)KO, standing and trading will be his best chance of taking out the living legend that is Fedor.
And as the picture above shows, Fedor has also shown no problems beating much larger men than Silva.
Odds of getting submitted: 5/2
Antonio Silva possess a very decent ground game, but don't think for one second that he is on the same level on the ground as Fedor.
Out of Fedor's 31 victories, 16 have come by submission. Also, Fedor has proven on multiple occasions that he can grab a hold of a larger man's arm or neck and make them cry uncle.
Silva's best chance of not getting submitted is to use his insane reach advantage to keep Fedor on the outside and try to avoid getting taken down.
If the fight does hit the ground, Silva is either going to sleep or Fedor is taking one of Silva's arms back with him to Russia.
Odds of getting submitted: 75/1
Although 19 of Alistair Overeem's 34 have come by way of submission, he has never been able to submit a top-level grappler. Lately, Overeem has been destroying people with his hands and knees and putting his ground game on the back burner.
It would be very ill advised to have Overeem go back to what has earned him the most victories. Werdum is slick on the ground and submitted him with a kimura in their first match back in 2006.
If Overeem was able to pull off a miracle and submit Werdum, he would be the first person to do so. For The Reem is to be victorious, it would be best if he kept the fight standing until he hurt Werdum, then follow him to the mat to finish the job.
He just has to make sure that Fabricio is really hurt, or he could end up like Fedor.
Odds of getting submitted: 15/1
Alistair Overeem has only been submitted twice throughout his career. Luckily for Werdum, he is one of the two people to pull off that feat.
If Werdum tries to stand and trade with The Reem, he will be in a world of hurt after taking a knee to the grill. Even if he has to put himself in a bad position by pulling guard, Werdum needs to get this fight to the mat to have any chance of winning.
If he can get it there, it will be a huge task to submit the genetic freak that is Overeem. He has done it once before, but can he do it again?
Odds of being submitted: 75/1
There is no hiding the fact that Sergei Kaharitonov is all about going for the knockout. In fact, he has only recorded one submission in his entire career.
Sergei is going to look to keep this fight standing at all cost because he is aware, as are we all, that clipping the chin of Arlovski is his easiest path to the semifinals.
Crazier things have happened, but Arlovski getting submitted by Kaharitonov would rank up among the craziest things ever to happen in MMA.
Odds of being submitted: 12/5
Andrei Arlovski has been relying way too much on his hands lately thanks to his training with Freddie Roach.
Maybe Andrei will realize that his newfound striking has failed him and he needs to go back to his sambo background.
Both Arlovski and Kharitonov have shown suspect chins during their careers, but Andrei's much more suspect than Kharitonov.
Look for Andrei to forgo the stand-up and try to get this fight to the ground where his greatest chance of victory lies.
Odds of being submitted: 3/2
Out of all the fighters in the quarterfinals, Rogers by far has the greatest chance of being submitted.
Josh Barnett has one of the best ground games in the heavyweight division today. Evidence is in his record—29 wins; 17 submissions.
Is there any doubt in anyone's mind that he is going to want this fight on the mat as soon as possible?
Rogers has dynamite in his gloves. If he connects, there's a pretty good chance that most heavyweights would be put to sleep.
Unfortunately for Rogers, Barnett has been around the block once or twice and knows better than to stand and trade with "The Grimm."
Odds of being submitted: 1,000,000/1
Without a shadow of a doubt, there is absolutely no chance that Barnett is going to be submitted when he faces off against Brett Rogers.
Rogers has publicly stated that he just wants to get as big as he can, get in the cage, and knock people's heads off their shoulders. He didn't use those exact words, but it's close enough.
Barnett is going to look to take this fight to the ground as quickly as he can get his hands on Rodgers. From there, look for a Barnett-esq systematical breakdown which will lead to a submission.
Now with that all out of the way, there is one other prop bet we must take a look at.
Odds of Barnett passing a post-fight urine analysis: 23/2
This line only makes sense. Barnett has had 34 fights and has failed three U.A.'s. How much do you trust—or not trust—Barnett to pee clean?
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