Vladimir Guerrero Signs with Baltimore Orioles: 2011 Fantasy Impact

Nick KappelAnalyst IIIFebruary 4, 2011

ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 31:  Vladimir Guerrero #27 of the Texas Rangers looks on during batting practice against the San Francisco Giants in Game Four of the 2010 MLB World Series at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on October 31, 2010 in Arlington, Texas.  (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Christian Petersen/Getty Images

According to Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes, Vladimir Guerrero has signed a one-year, $8 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles. Ken Rosenthal and Buster Olney have since confirmed the news.

While most fantasy managers may jump off the Vlad bandwagon knowing 81 games in Arlington are no longer possible, Camden Yards might actually be a better place for the 36-year-old to hit.

In 32 career games at Camden Yards, Guerrero has posted the following line:

  • 126 AB, 23 R, 9 HR, 30 RBI, .333/.400/.611

In fact, Vlad has a better AB/HR rate at Camden (14.0) than he does in Arlington (16.8).

Further, Camden Yards (fifth) ranked ahead of Rangers Ballpark (seventh) in home run-friendliness last season, according to ESPN’s MLB Park Factors.

Guerrero will DH and bat cleanup in a surprisingly potent Orioles lineup that now includes: Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Derek Lee, Mark Reynolds and Adam Jones, not to mention Luke Scott and Matt Wieters.

It seems as though the only thing standing between Vlad and his seventh season of at least 27 HR, 90 RBI and a .300 batting average in the last eight years is his health. Despite entering his age-36 season, Vlad has been surprisingly durable in recent years, collecting at least 520 at-bats in six of the last seven seasons.

Vlad still whiffs at more pitches outside of the zone than anyone, and has some of the lowest walk and strikeout rates in baseball, but there’s every reason to believe he’s capable of at least 25 HR, 100 RBI and a .300 batting average in 2011.

 PARHRRBISBAVG
2010 stats64383291154.300
3-year average5507624854.300
2011 FBI Forecast60080251003.304

 

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