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Interesting thing when looking at this week’s slate: All of the home teams are favored to win, except for the Green Bay Packers, who happen to be playing the best team in the NFL...

The NFL Picks Column: Cowboys, Packers Battle for NFC Supremacy

by Sean Crowe (Senior Writer)

47

1355 reads

Preview/Prediction

September 19, 2008


Interesting thing when looking at this week’s slate: All of the home teams are favored to win, except for the Green Bay Packers, who happen to be playing the best team in the NFL.

I’m not sure I remember a week where 15 out of 16 home teams were favored.

Couple of quick items before I get to the picks.

As I’m sure you know, we do the NFL Power 10 every Wednesday morning. If you’re looking for a decent compliment to the Power 10, Dan Boone writes his Sad-Sack Seven every week. It’s a great read, and I highly recommend it.

Bleacher Report also posts their own full-fledged NFL Power Rankings. Shaun Ahmad does a great job putting them together. A bunch of your favorite NFL writers here at Bleacher Report contribute, so make sure you check it out next week.

(Home teams in CAPS)

 

ATLANTA (-5.5) over Kansas City

Three quick reasons why Kansas City is going to get blown out by the Atlanta Falcons:

1)    There’s nobody on that defense that can stop Matt Ryan to Roddy White.

2)    I’m still not sure what a Tyler Thigpen is.

3)    Herm Edwards is to offensive football as the McCain campaign is to telling the truth.

Seriously, Herm Edwards is a terrible head coach.

He has one of the best running backs in the NFL, but for some reason, he feels the need to not play him.

He concocted some insane injury story that the team can’t seem to keep straight because he hates Damon Huard and didn’t want to take the heat for playing Thigpen over him.

He’s probably the second worst clock-management head coach in the NFL, behind Cleveland’s Romeo Crennel.

He gives great press conferences though.

 

BUFFALO (-9.5) over Oakland

The Bills were favored, but just barely, over the Seahawks. They were underdogs against the Jaguars. This is the first time that they’ve been expected to win a game.

Not only are they expected to win, but they’re expected to win rather easily.

It’ll be interesting to see how the young team reacts. Sometimes young teams let up in games they think they’re supposed to win. I’m not predicting this will happen; but it’s something to keep an eye on.

The Raiders are in a tough situation. When Al Davis wakes up from his nap, he’s going to fire Lane Kiffin. He could wake up this week. He could wake up next week. He could wake up at halftime on Sunday.

But eventually, he’ll wake up and the head coach will be gone. Until that happens, I’m not sure you can expect much from this team.

 

TENNESSEE (-4.5) over Houston

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47 comments Last one added 9 months ago — Leave a Comment

  1. Ray Bogusz 9 months ago

    Although I clearly disagree with you on the political front, we seem to be on the same football wave-length.

    You can bet on sports legally though. I do it every week.

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    • John Scott 9 months ago

      Seriously if your bashing McCain for not telling the truth, then what do you think about Obama, he never tells the truth (i.e. his relations with Ayers and and Pastor Wright)

      And why are we coming to you for picks? your 15-15 on the year.

      And why do you consider these 2 teams the best in the NFC, as far as I'm concerned the Giants are still the best team in the NFC, considering they won the Super Bowl and are 2-0 and looking dominant thus far.

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    • Sean Crowe 9 months ago

      If you can point me to a time when Obama lied about his association with those two, please do. The McCain campaign has been historically dishonest, to the point where typically conservative mags have started questioning his ability to be president.

      But hey, his VP can see Russia from her front porch, right?

      As for the 15-15, week one kicked my ass. Week one is a coin toss. Come see me in November...

      I think they're the best two teams because they've looked the best thus far. The Giants would be third. Eagles fourth. The Giants would be higher, but they've played nobody yet either and haven't looked as good as the Packers in doing it...

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    • Sean Crowe 9 months ago

      For the record, I've never once voted Democrat for anything. This will be the first time. Ever.

      So before you call me a "lefty" you might want to take a deep breath, go to factcheck.org, see what your candidate has been saying vs reality...then we can maybe have an intelligent conversation.

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    • Ray Bogusz 9 months ago

      Factcheck is backed by people who support Bill Ayers and they're set to get major money from Obama. They're grossly un-reliable.

      You want to start taking shots at credibility though, we can.

      Obama worked with Bill Ayers, and still considers him a close friend, when he was a community agitator in Chicago. Ayers wanted to blow up the pentagon and still harbours ill-will towards our own government.

      We all know about Rev. Wright.

      Obama took more money from Fannie and Freddie than anybody except the chairman of oversight. Obama claims great change but hasn't accomplished anything. Every piece of legislation he pushed through was on the backs of other people's work, he just piggy backed.

      He's the friend of the little man but he wants to raise taxes on incomes over 250k? That's not a lot. A lot of those households are either two job households or are small businesses. In the second case that business is more than likely bearly breaking even and in the first case we have to ask "why would you penalize two job households"?

      Obama wants to raise taxes. Don't tell me "oh no he didn't say that" he even went on ABC and admitted that the only way he wouldn't raise taxes is if there's a recession. And he will have to raise them, on everybody, he's proposing over a trillion dollar increase in government spending.

      So yeah, Obama has some credibility issues too, and frankly I can't afford to pay more into his welfare state. But hey if you can and you just feel a need to pour more money into government by all means please, vote for Obama.

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    • Bryan Thiel 9 months ago

      Question John: Do you read Bill Simmons? I do, and he's 13-17-1, yet I still enjoy/trust his picks.

      It's Sean's opinion of what's going to go down, no one said you had to trust him, or to go out and bet your life savings on what he says.

      Besides, the only prognosticator I know of that's any good right now is Chris Schultz for TSN in Canada. He picks four games a week and is 8-0, but there are still plenty of other people I'd trust more, because anyone can pick four games.

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    • Sean Crowe 9 months ago

      The government, run by Republicans and supported by McCain, just purchased $700,000,000,000 worth of bad mortgages, gave $85,000,000,000 to AIG, and bought out Fannie May and Freddie Mac for $200,000,000,000....

      Frankly, you could afford to put more money into Obama's "welfare state" if you weren't spending so much of your money keeping the rich people rich...

      The largest governmental expansion in the history of the United States happened during Bush's first 6 years...while the entire government was run by Republicans.

      I'm conservative. I see $1,000,000,000,000 going to Iraq while they're swimming in oil money. I see trillions going to companies who screwed themselves over with bad business practices. I see government growing faster than it did under Clinton.

      Frankly, you can't afford four more years of Republicans. But if you feel you need to poor more of your money into bailing out rich people and growing your government into the largest corporation in the world, please feel free to vote for McCain...

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    • Bob Baumbarger 9 months ago

      Sean The government IS NOT!!!! run by Republicans get your faxes right the democrats are running the government.most of the congress is Democrats not Republicans.I know Bush is the president but the democrats are in control and that's why things are so F%@# up!beside why the H#%@ we talking about this crap it is what it is all of them are screwing us!!I thought this is a sports web site not a political site.SO LETS TALK SPORTS!!
      GO PANTHERS!!

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    • Sean Crowe 9 months ago

      Bob,
      It's that kind of thinking that scares the crap out of me.

      The Dems barely control the Senate, and only if you count Leiberman...if Leiberman switched parties, they'd be a minority. They also don't hold enough votes to override a veto.

      Translation: The Democrats don't control anything.

      This is why you should have to pass a test to vote. Candidates also shouldn't be allowed to run commercials. Just debates. Maybe weekly. Where they'll get called out for lying.

      Please, if you're old enough to vote, educate yourself first. I don't care who you vote for, but if you vote McCain because you think the Democrats have been in control and caused this mess, please just don't vote.

      To put it into Sports terms, blaming the Democrats for the current economy is like blaming Lane Kiffin for the Raiders' lack of talent. Yes, he's there. But he still has no say. Not until Al Davis is gone.

      In this case, the Republicans (George Bush) are Al Davis.

      This election is too serious to vote based on ignorance.

      If you vote McCain because you believe he has the best plan (he'll fire the head of the SEC...of course, he can't fire the head of the SEC...but it makes a nice rallying cry), then vote for him.

      Oh, and yes, it's a sports site. But it's also a community, free to discuss whatever we like.

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    • Shaun Ahmad 9 months ago

      "This is why you should have to pass a test to vote. "

      100% correct. I've been saying this for years. I'm tired of people voting because freaking one way or another because P.Diddy or Paris Hilton told them so.

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  2. Molly Gray 9 months ago

    Dallas isn't losing. Don't get me wrong, I'm Aaron Rodger's biggest fan but I just can't see the Cowboys losing this early in the season. The one thing that scares me a little bit about this game is GB's secondary versus Dallas's receiving core. With so many injuries and inexperienced players (besides T.O. of course) we could really get beat there. In that case however, we'll just hand to ball to Barber or even Felix Jones and get 'em on the ground. I hope to see Crayton step up against this big defense but I will not be surprised if he doesn't.

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    • Mike Craig 9 months ago

      Am I the only one who knows that Dallas has never won at Lambeau Field?

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    • Collin Whitchurch 9 months ago

      I agree with you, Molly, that the Packers' secondary worries me against the 'Boys (especially due to the fact that Atari Bigby is likely out for the game), but if the Packers coaching staff is smart and devises clever zones and zone-blitzes, they will be able to have success despite the mismatches in the secondary. If they're stubborn and think they can get away with matching Al Harris one-on-one with Terrell Owens all game, they'll get burned. Look, Harris is a top-notch cover-corner who can shut down 90 percent of the number one wide receivers in the league. But Owens isn't one of them. Neither is Plaxico Burress, neither is Randy Moss. There are some guys you just can't cover one-on-one and the Packers' coaching staff needs to realize that. If they do that, they'll be fine. I'm not worried about stopping Marion Barber/Felix Jones. No disrespect to those guys, but the Packers are usually pretty solid against the run.

      And let's not forget the fact that one of the best receiving cores in the NFL, led by Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, and suddenly Jordy Nelson, will be going up against a Dallas secondary that got torched by Philadelphia last week.

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    • Sean Crowe 9 months ago

      Molly, you might be right. I went back and forth, then settled on the Pack because they're playing at home. But I won't be surprised either way.

      GB's secondary is a concern, but what about the Dallas secondary? The GB receivers are MUCH better than the Eagles' receivers...and look what Philly did...

      Thanks for the comments!
      -Sean

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  3. Chris Radez 9 months ago

    Enjoyable read Sean ... nice job.

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  4. Vinny Gazzara 9 months ago

    Green Bay over Dallas I see. Most pf the people i know are pickin the'Boys. It'll be a good game either way.

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  5. daniel cox 9 months ago

    because of ike, the texans are enigmatic. i think it's too early to say they are a bust, but the titans will be a tough match-up for them this week. coming together over adversity is good for a few wins--but not this week.

    a trio of teams this week facing must-win games: minnesota, san diego, and the browns. all three win, not just two as you picked sean.

    and two weeks in a row, the cowboys are in the game of the week. it's almost a toss-up, but we've not seen rodgers, i love how he's playing as well, in a true shoot-out, which is what this game could become. i gotta go with the cowboys, as much as it pains me to say it. still hoping the cheeseheads pull it out though.

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    • Sean Crowe 9 months ago

      I would have agreed with Minnesota winning if the Gus thing hadn't happened. Have you ever watched Frerotte?

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    • daniel cox 9 months ago

      it's been a while since i've seen G.F. play, but hey, he was a pro-bowler in '96, right? game manager, don't lose the game...all that b.s. i think they ride the a.p. train and the defense to a win. they have to right?

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  6. Pete Treperinas 9 months ago

    Thanks for all the insight on the Seahawks Rams game. Seattle has so many injuries that Mike Holmgren might actually suit up next week.

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  7. Mike Craig 9 months ago

    Nice read, and I agree with about all of these games. The Steelers-Eagles game is going to be amazing, same as the Cowboys-Packers game. I have my OWN reasons for picking Green Bay over Dallas. The very first time the Cowboys lost in Lambeau Field was the Ice Bowl. The last time they lost was back in 2002? Every game they lost (5) in Lambeau Field was decided by 16 points or more EXCEPT the Ice Bowl. So yes, I am picking Green Bay over Dallas. Dallas' record in Lambeau Field after sunday night--0-6.

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  8. Zeke Fuhrman 9 months ago

    I don't think the Packers should be battling for NFC supremacy until they beat a team that isn't from Minnesota or Detroit...

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  9. kevin roberts 9 months ago

    I agree with Ezekial. Everyone thinks Rodgers is the savior because two wins over winless teams. Now, if he loses to Dallas, that doesn't mean he won't save them, but it will show he's human.

    And you're right, there will be a lot of points scored, but most of them will be coming from Dallas.

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    • Sean Crowe 9 months ago

      It's about how he's handled the pressure of replacing Favre, not who he's beaten. Imagine what would have been said if he cost the team either game? In fact, he's been an asset in both games.

      I don't think you can underestimate the pressure he's been under. I don't think you can understate the success he's had thus far.

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  10. PJ Edelman 9 months ago

    Dallas and GB battling for the #2 spot in the NFC! This will be great. When they beat the Giants in a playoff call me.

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  11. Rob Ohlstrom 9 months ago

    Nice pick on the Tampa game.

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  12. Bob Biscigliano 9 months ago

    Detroit's defense will surprise you this weekend.

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  13. Bob Biscigliano 9 months ago

    preseason, the fact that they are playing against former O-coordinator and their former BACKUP QB JT O'Sullivan to they'll want to shut them down to legitimize their departure, and of course I have to say that to defend my team. In all honesty, they really can surprise people tomorrow, then again its a road game and a completely different, much crappier, team likes to show up on the road. We'll see.

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  14. Bryan Thiel 9 months ago

    If the Chargers miss the playoffs, they'll have bigger problems than week two.

    Nice job Sean.

    BT

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  15. Angel Navedo 9 months ago

    Your Jets' hatred is troubling, Sean.

    I expect SD to come out fired up, but that defense is atrocious. They can't rush the pass or slow the run. If the Jets' new punter can keep SD's offense honest, and with a long field, then the Chargers will be in even more trouble. Rivers is going to throw and find targets, but a 20+ margin of victory? C'mon now.. not with a defense that can't keep teams out of the end zone.

    If the Jets can grind down on that defense enough, they'll eventually collapse.

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    • Sean Crowe 9 months ago

      Angel,
      I understand that I show some serious anti-Jets bias, but you have to admit...when a team's fans start using their punter in an argument to say why they might win, the argument is probably futile. :)

      I am biased though. Mostly at your head coach. And not because of last year. The Denver playoff game, where he was more interested in interviewing for the head coaching position at NY, and ended up having to be locked out of his office and shut out of the game-planning (had they advanced, he would have been replaced), and then was RECRUITING current Patriots' coaches on the plane ride back from Denver.

      I will NEVER forgive him for that. Ever. I can't wait until the Jets fire his lousy coaching ass.

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    • Angel Navedo 9 months ago

      I knew nothing of Mangini till I learned the Jets were courting him. Your dislike for him is reasonable. Hell, even I'm beginning to question his ability to properly coach this team.

      But I don't think discussing the punter as a factor is futile, at all. Special teams are a huge part of a game's turnout. Without special teams, the Patriots would've only scored one touchdown last week. The field goals would've still been enough to win without the TD, but you have to consider that the only reason NE was close enough to do it was when Favre was picked off around the Jets' 30. That's not a sign of a defense that can be blown out by 20+ points.

      Without your kicker booting kicks out of the end zone, the Jets may have had better starting field position. The terrible punts are what helped your Pats start around mid-field for every drive, so the punter is very relevant in deciding the outcome of a game.

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    • Max Iascone 9 months ago

      While I will say that the punter is not exactly the most important player on the field, cmon Sean, you're a Pats fan... you of all people should remember Ken Walter and his 30 yard punts (maximum). Not to mention the 18 yarder against Indy that gave 'em the game. (yes the defense gave up the yards but Walter spotted 'em an extra 25-30 on that kick). He was so bad that they canned him mid-season and replaced him with Brooks Barnard (who?).

      I'd take San Diego -9 at home against the Jets, I'm not so sure about 20 because of LT's nagging injuries and the fact that Gates and Chambers are all SD has for consistent passing options. I think it'll be a 10 point game. Nice work on last week's picks to make up for the 4-11 first week.

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  1. tay digga 9 months ago

    u just got a new fan man, loving your post and how you owned John with his political banter...

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  2. Rory Davis 9 months ago

    3) Herm Edwards is to offensive football as the McCain campaign is to telling the truth.

    Awesome line bro

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  3. MJ Kasprzak 9 months ago

    Love that you picked us, even though I did not. I also love the restating the lies of McCain--I used to respect the heck out of that guy even if I did not agree with him. Now I respect put him right around where I have Hillary Clinton--higher than anyone in the Bush Administration but lower than anyone I personally know.

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  4. Vinny Gazzara 9 months ago

    Fish killed the Pats! WOW is all i can say.

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  5. Craig Garrison Sr 9 months ago

    The "Cassell" crumbled today Sean, sorry bud. The Skins must be really messing up your numbers, just keep picking against 'em, though, it makes this a bit more fun.

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