NFL analysts love to talk about how many weapons Peyton Manning has at his disposal—but it doesn’t matter if Manning is either hurrying his throws into coverage or is flat on his back.And in his last three games against the San Diego Chargers, Manning has been sacked 10 times, has thrown nine interceptions, and has lost one of two fumbles.
I’ve watched a number Colts games, and I've seen plenty of big plays to guys like Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzales, Joseph Addai, and all-time great Marvin Harrison.
When I’ve watched Indy play the Chargers, however, the Bolts have been in a foot-race to quarterback. It’s like a feeding frenzy.
The Chargers' pass defense was strengthened by the adversity it faced early in the season. Teams went to the quick passing game to avoid the pass rush of Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips, Luis Castillo, and Co.—and while it worked well early on, it now works in the Chargers’ favor.
Tom Brady and the Patriots kicked off the aerial assault with a win over a confused and bungling Chargers defense in the second game of the season. That was followed by a schooling at the hands another all-time great in Brett Favre, before an astounding performance by career backup Damon Huard and rookie WR Dwayne Bowe gave the Chargers all the footage they needed to make the necessary adjustments.
The Colts tried the same game plan...and it blew up in their faces.
You throw the ball against the Chargers at your own risk. Teams that have relied primarily on the pass against San Diego have failed miserably—and have thrown a TON of picks.
The Raiders threw the ball 37 times with one touchdown and two interceptions in their first battle with the Bolts. The Texans threw it 45 times with one touchdown and four interceptions. Manning heaved the ball an amazing 56 times with a whopping six interceptions and two touchdowns. The Chiefs threw the ball 40 times in the teams' second meeting, with three interceptions and a single TD. John Kitna and the pass-happy Lions tossed it 45 times with a predictable five interceptions (a sixth was dropped) and just two touchdowns. Jay Cutler of the Broncos was simply dominated by the Bolts—no stats needed.
It's hard to imagine that Manning will throw six interceptions against the Chargers again this weekend—but if Addai doesn’t get going on the ground, he could easily throw three or four.
Don’t get me wrong—I’m not predicting a Chargers victory (or loss, for that matter) in Sunday's Divisional Playoff battle. I just haven't seen anything from the Colts to lead me to believe that they can suddenly protect Manning.
The only thing that can neutralize the Charger pass rush is a good running game, and I don't believe the Colts have the goods to make it happen.
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6 months ago
Dude, in the last Colts-Charger game, Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark were all out with injuries. That lets San Diego to focus on the run and forces Manning to throw. Despite that Manning got his yards, but at the cost of a lot interceptions. If Harrison, Gonzalez and Clark in the game, with their superior route running abilities, fewer interceptions will be had and San Diego won't be able to focus on stuffing the run.
As for protecting Manning, both Colts starting tackles were out for all or most of the Charger's game. Ugoh has been back for the last few games, and Diem will be back for the Chargers game. The Chargers have their work cut out for them on defense in all likelihood.
6 months ago
Funny nobody mentions that the Chargers were missing 3 starters on defense that day. That more that equalizes that argument. Truth is the Chargers dominated the first half and it should have been a blow out. But their offense was totally off that day. So they beat the Colts without some stars on defense (Castillo and Jammer) and no offense. With their defense intact and the offense bothering to show up it should be another Bolts victory.
from 6 months ago
Funny no on mentions the fact that the colts were missing 8 starters. Stupid
6 months ago
I'll do some predicting ..... Colts beat the Bolts ....
6 months ago
Um i don't know who is a charger fan or not but let's get real. What New England did to the chargers wasn't a fluke and if they played again Brady would have a field day..AGAIN. As far as Peyton goes, he's the man. No one cares about the chargers team, it's not their offense was off that day in san diego, it's that Philip Rivers is wack as hell. Im tired of seeing him talking and jawing at other qb's or other players for that matter when he's not good. They were scoreless at the half against the TITANS, which need i remind everyone that vince young isn't joe namath. He's not that much of a passer, but manning is. Everyone w/ the colts was hurt in week 9 i think it was, and they BARELY won w/ 6 INT's from peyton and a missed field goal that vinateri can nail w/ his eyes closed.
And PEOPLE stop talkin about how manning has all these weapons at his disposal, he made those players. If the organization wants to draft offense for their qb than they do so. What was harrison doing before Peyton got there, not a damn thing. He didn't even have a 1,000yrd season before that man from Tenn. showed up. So know ur facts, and stop trying to be-little peyton when he is the best qb in the league.
from 6 months ago
Two words to your Titans comment: Albert Haynesworth
If you don't know what that means, well, nice try.
6 months ago
No Marvin Harrison again this time. I like the points.
6 months ago
Charger D is scary good. Allowing a playoff team only two field goals is very good, even if the team is Tennessee. Titan's D stopped the Bolts for a half, but who made the adjustments on both sides of the ball, played better as the game wore on? The Colts will be better this time around, so will the Bolts. It'll be a full 60 minutes of football again, we'll see who's standing when it's over.
from 6 months ago
uh... Tennessee is horrible. Didn't you see the Colts nearly beat them with their 3rd and 4th string players in the last week of the regular season.
Colts D is much scarier. They allow 40+ yards less per game than the Chargers, and give up less touchdowns than the Bolts.
Should be a good game though!
6 months ago
Yep we'll just have to wait and see. Whomever posted the facts about the Pats is kind of off base a bit. Brady didn't have a field day last year with the chargers. If you remember right it was a knock down fight the whole time. I think the Chargers have the best chance of getting to and beating the Pats. That's not to say that they will but they do have the best chance.
Bad mouthing Rivers after he just threw 297 yeards in a playoff game seems a little strange to me but ok... we're just going to have to wait and see who the last team standing is. My money is on the Chargers to beat the Colts, they match up well with them on both sides of the ball and if the Chargers high scoring offense shows up it will not even be close. That's my prediction for the record. Let's see who's right....Joe
6 months ago
This game looks to be very close. In the 7 regular season games since the Colts and Bolts met, the points for (PF) and points against (PA) are: Colts 185 (PF) and 113 (PA); Bolts 200 (PF) and 99 (PA). The only playoff teams that both teams played during this run were the Jags and Titans, so they played similar opponents. Statistically the Bolts have outperformed the Colts over the second half of the season, but the Colts have been more consistent over the entire season. Colts performed better than Bolts against Jags and Pats (Colt's loss, even though close, is still a loss), but otherwise very similar against common opponents, Texans, Ravens, Chiefs, Titans, Raiders and Broncos. Bolts have held 4 opponents out of the end zone (Bears, Broncos twice and Titans in playoffs); Colts have not held any opponent out of the end zone, but have never given up more than 25 pts (Jags), which is exceptional. Highest points scored, Bolts (51 vs Lions), 2d Colts (44 vs Ravens), 3rd tie (41, Bolts v Broncos; Colts v Saints). Interesting note: Some suggest the Colts would have rolled over the Titans in the playoffs, but the Colts barely beat the Titans on the road (22-20) as did the Bolts (23-17 in OT), and Colts lost to the Titans at home. Although the Colts' JV played in the second half, Colts' Varsity didn't do much against the Titans in the first half. This looks to me like it will be a very good game.
6 months ago
The key factor is whether or not Antonio Gates plays. That is a huge portion of the Bolts offense. I don't care which team wins, as long as the Patriots don't make it to the Super Bowl.
6 months ago
Colts lost to the Titans at home, but it was clear that goals of the team starters were more to get records and to avoid injuries during a final tune up in which bunch of starters including Harrison and Gonzalez didn't play, and the Titans were fighting to get into the playoffs.
As for the Chargers injuries during the Colts game, are you kidding me? You are comparing the loss of 5 starters on the Colts offense before or early in the game to a couple of Chargers defenders being out? Not to mention the reason the Chargers offense didn't get it going was because they were playing against one of the best defenses in the NFL, one which also had injuries (Freeney went out during the game, and the Colts were without other starters on defense). Defense tends to be more plug and play than offense, so missing a defender isn't so critical if a competent back up remains.
Let's face it, it is difficult to make predictions given who is missing during that previous game. Perhaps the key difference will be that the game is not in San Diego but rather is in Indy.
6 months ago
How could anyone be confident about the Bolts after that depressing win last Sunday?!?!? They had trouble handling the mediocre Titans!
Now, you are expecting Philip Rivers to go into Indy and have to make throws? He does a great job with no real pressure, but there is no doubt that the Chargers will be trailing in this game. A relatively-healthy Colts team, that should have gone 14-2 in a division with 3 playoff teams and a game against the 16-0 Patriots, I'd take Manning and his Super Bowl winning team in this game.
The Chargers may have beat the Colts earlier in the year, but that was in San Diego, when there were considerable injuries facing the Horsemen. There is no way Indy loses this game. No way. Don't even pretend.
from 6 months ago
Haynesworth was the Defensive Player of the Year, not Bob Sanders.
6 months ago
come on people we all know that the colts are choke artists, they have lost in big games except for last year. they lost against the chargers after going 13-0 and they have lost the last two to them. They know this is a big game and its against a team they havnt beaten in a while. the pressure is on and they are going to crumble like they always do.
6 months ago
Last time Chargers played at Indy, Colts where 13-0 and nobody gave Chargers any chance, they won the game 27-16. Never say never :)
6 months ago
I think this game will be a lot closer then anybody is predicting. Don't count the Chargers out just because they are not Indy or the Pats. Rivers found his groove last Sunday against the 5th ranked defense in the NFL, and has been playing good when they needed him to (6 straight wins to close the season). So while Tenn's offense and VY did stink it up this year, they were not just some fluke. Haynesworth is about as good a defensive player as there is. Granted, Indy is a far superior offense, but when one compares the defenses, they are about the same. I think Cromartie is just as lethal as Sanders, and the Bolts pass-rush is currently best in the NFL in my opinion. So it just comes down can Indy protect Manning, not just from sacks, but from hurries. If they can, I'll give it to Indy, if Merriman and crew and create a lot of havoc and Peyton never gets comfy, then we're looking at a close good game. I'll agree with Chris though, as long as the pompous Pats lose along the way, I don't care who represents the AFC in the Super Bowl, just not New England, please. I hope some team knocks a few teeth from that smile on Brady's face and throws down Moss like the scarecrow he is!!!!
from 6 months ago
The only reason that Rivers numbers are up in the past weeks is because LT is playing is butt off. Teams are playing against LT and not Rivers.
Also take into consideration that his passer ratings are up because he is only throwing short completions >25 times a game. Looks kinda like the old Patriot offense in the passing game.
Also, if he had trouble last week against the 5th ranked defense, why would he not have even more trouble with the 3rd ranked defense, which is also 2nd against the pass - along with probably not having his main weapon, Antonio Gates!
6 months ago
great write up, excellent points throughout.
6 months ago
It's quite a valid point that most media members are mentioning that Manning will in no way throw six picks the Divisional game match-up. But it's also important to note that Norv Turner and Ted Washington still had their heads up their butts in managing the Chargers at the time. It wasn't really until Week 10 (SD vs. Baltimore) that they finally figured out an appropriate strategy for using the weapons they have. The Chargers did have the most turnovers this year and the best turnover ratio in the NFL.
It's been demonstrated historically (New England, San Diego, etc) that 3-4 defenses present challenges to Manning, and in particular, defenses that can put pressure on the quarterback without selling out.
Don't get me wrong, Indy has a great shot at winning this game, but it's interesting that NO national football expert I've seen gives SD a shot. The closest I've seen is Peter King (prediction: 28-23). If betting were legal in this country, I'd take the Chargers and the points.
Steve, San Diego
6 months ago
You make no mention of the Colts' defense, which finished the season ranked #2 overall.
And you are not the only one who has forgotten that they exist. It happens. They are flying under the radar again this year with this defense. While everyone awaits the Colts offense to explode, its the defense that has been winning games for them - going back to the SB win over Chicago.
This team has been lying in wait in the high weeds all season while New England has been receiving all the accolades and breaking all the records.
I would not be shocked of the Colts come out and smash everyone in their path and win the Super Bowl again.
6 months ago
I wasn't impressed with the Colts defense, because they rely on Peyton Manning and the offense to put up those stats. Sitting back passing all day against the Chargers stopped working after that 3 game losing streak to start the season. Wrong game plan for Indy.
6 months ago
Wow. The Colts. Wow.
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