I am really questioning Ferrari's engine swap at Monza. Did Felipe over rev the motor in the wet conditions or are they still having the con rod issue?
OK, four races left. Singapore at night with high humidity. Japan a high revving, usually rainy race. China high revving long straights with lots of torque out of the slow corners. And finally Brazil hot and humid with fairly high revs.
So if he makes it through Singapore, which he should, given that he was taking it easy at Monza he will get a fresh engine for Japan. Hamilton holds the current fast lap record at Fuji and it always seems to rain there. So if Ferrari has traction issues, it will turn into another Monza for Ferrari. If it remains dry, it will really stress the power plant.
Then on to China, which usually is hot, dry, and very tough on the drive line. I think this is where they should have played the wild-card for Massa. Then into Brazil, Massa's home track with a fresh engine unless he over stresses the engine in China, which is a huge possibility.
Ferrari has really shown it's arse as far as tactics this year, I really think they have blown it again. Given such a scenario, at any rate— it puts Hamilton in a very good position to apply pressure, given that the Mercedes power plant hasn't had any issues this year.
Check me on that if I am wrong, but I don't remember a DNF for McClaren except for driver error.