One team rising, one team sinking, one top team staying the same.
Utah 53-29 (LY= 54-28)
Jerry Sloan’s team has done little to change. Second in assists differential (+6.5), second in field-goal percentage (49%), third in rebound differential (3.1), and fourth in points differential (+6.9) adds up to a solid team that works the ball for the high percentage shot.
They rock ‘n roll with the pick ‘n roll. Deron Williams will get even better. Adding Brevin Knight helps a bit. You might say that Sloan is getting maximum return out of his talent.
Have they reached their ceiling? Will seven-foot draft choice Kostas Koufas get playing time?
They have two big problems to solve to be better this season: 1) Learn to play better on the road. 2) Carlos Boozer stepping up in the playoffs.
Portland 48-34 (LY= 41-41)
Greg Oden is the difference, and Portland is everybody’s favorite team to jump up this year. They could go even higher than seven over .500. Only another Oden injury can stop their march to legitimacy.
The Blazers are young and talented. With Oden teamed with Aldridge, and Pyzbilla backing up, they are solid up front.
Point guard is a question mark. Steve Blake has founda way to get serious minutes with limited athleticism, but solid, unflashy play. Jerryd Bayless was impressive in summer league play and looks like he will help. Spanish star Rudy Fernandez will come in behind Brandon Roy.
Has Ike Diogu finally found a team that can appreciate his skills? Bayless, Fernandez, Outlaw, Frye, Diogu, and Pryzbilla look like a talented bench to me.
Denver 40-42 (LY=50-32)
I used to say this team was what the Knicks hoped they would become. There are a lot of similarities. High priced, selfish talent—but Denver would at least win. I liked the team more before they traded Andre Miller.
Last year, this team went to the line more than any other, and had the biggest free-throw differential in the NBA. But they didn't commit so few fouls because they played great defense. Just the opposite.
The unloading of Marcus Camby for nothing ($10 million trade exception) sends a wrong signal to an underachieving, defensively-challenged team. They’ve added known defenders Dahntay Jones, Chris Anderson, and Renaldo Balkman, which makes it seem as if they are trying to focus on defense—until you realize they gave away a player one year removed from being the league’s top defender.
I’ve said for a while that this team has the talent on the roster. But they won’t go anywhere until Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, and JR Smith play some defense. The word in Denver is that they understand this now after last year's playoff sweep.
I expect Allen Iverson and/or good-guy coach George Karl to be gone before the year is out, unless they change their ways. The team needs a shake up. If Denver achieves anything close to last year's record—and does it with defense—the Nuggets will become the shipwreck that didn't happen.
Minnesota 28-54 (LY=22-60)
By far the "foulingest" (new word) team, with 30 free-throw attempts per game for their opponents and a gaudy foul differential of -5.5, (-1.7 was the next closest) in the NBA last season.
Still on the smallish side and too young to make any real moves, but they should improve. Rookie Kevin Love and Mike Miller will help. If Al Jefferson and Love can make an offensive statement around the hoop, it will help open things up for three-point specialist Mike Miller and the rest of the team. The growing process continues.
Oklahoma City 22-60 (LY=20-62)
This team took the least number of three-point shots in the league last year. That won’t change too much.
It seems like rookie Russell Westbrook and Earl Watson will share PG minutes, Kevin Durant will shoot away, and the team will struggle again.
Average but not outstanding talent everywhere except for Durant. Joe Smith and Desmond Mason bring a desperately-needed veteran presence. I fear for PJ Carlesimo's job.
Next up: Southwest Division
This article first appeared in Tom Halzack's Celtic blog for the Connecticut Post.
7 comments Last one added 9 months ago — Leave a Comment
Michael Inglis 9 months ago
I'd say watch for Minnesota to win a few more than 28 games. They are young but talented. I'd say about 35 wins for them. Seattle should be bad again but I think they'll win about 27, 28 games.
Portland is very good and young but everyone is talking about them making the next step. A lot of times when a team that hasn't done anything is hyped up the don't live up to expectations. I can see that happening and them finishing a few games under .500. That's just my gut feeling.
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J. Michael Morris 9 months ago
Utah needs a defensive big man, hopefully Fesenko, Kofous, or even Okur can play defense up to Jerry's standards.
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Vivek Jacob 9 months ago
I think Denver will be better than a 40 win team, in fact I would be surprised if they didn't contend for one of the lower playoff seeds. Nene's health and play will be the key though...and Kleiza will be better.
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Shane H. 9 months ago
Camby was Def POY a season ago but all he did was block shots. Why? B/c the rest of the team gambled and failed or played matador D so Camby was the last line of defense. With his long arms how hard is it to leave his man and stop a shot. I didn't consider him a game changer...anyway, i don't care for the decision, I'm a Eastern Conf. fan all the way (unless ur the Rockets)
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Thomas Halzack 9 months ago
Michael - I like Minny too. But a 13 game increase would be asking a lot, I think. And I'm not sold on Randy Wittman.
The 'reverse optimism' approach on Portland is the same thing I did with Orlando 2 years ago, and I was partially right. You could be, too. But I think if Oden is healthy, this team moves up 7 games.
J. Michael - Well, Utah's been doing alright with what they have, haven't they? But yeah, a defensive center wouldn't hurt. Latest rumor is Boozer may be going to the Heat.
Vivek - you could be right about Denver. They are certainly talented enough. But they have been 'talented enough' for a number of years now. Subtracting Camby doesn't make them stronger, though a complete attitude makeover defensively would. And Nene could be like Camby. Remember when he was always hurt and then got over it? Is AI like Marbury? Doesn't get it?
Shane - I like the Rockets chances too. I'm with you on the Eastern Conference, as well. It was an interesting choice of DPOY - one very good player on a very bad defensive team. Still, I like Camby's toughness and rebounding, too.
Thanks for the comments. Good thoughts.
T
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Tom Marshall 9 months ago
Reasonably high praise for Portland, yet no mention for former R.O.Y. Roy? The man could be on a path to stardom.
Sure its possible they could finish under .500, but the numbers and scouting reports say different. I'd be reasonably stunned if they don't make it reasonably deep in the playoffs this year.
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Thomas Halzack 9 months ago
Tom - Brandon Roy is a given and that went without saying. Perhaps I should've made mention. I agree that stardom is within his reach.
Portland started 22-13 but finished 41-41. Which Portland team do we see this season as we get "Oden-ized"? I'm quite optimistic about their chances.
Deep in the play-offs? Hmm... that's a bit different.
T
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