At first glance there are games that always look 'Tasty' ATS in many publication as a 'Bullet' trend only to 'trap' upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real 'ADVANTAGE' against the 'Trend'.Having seen the column explode in popularity in 2007, in 2008, The Director will draw even greater clarity by identifying the key trends as either 'First Look' or 'King Trends', and documenting the record the ADVANTAGE plays ATS.
FIRST LOOK 1.2 Just when I thought I would have to retire my pen for 2007, I have found that 'History repeats itself', and we are able to continue to sketch the lines of Wild Card week.
The fuzziest line is in Tampa Bay where the 17-3 loss ringing in their ears from 2006, the TAMPAY BAY BUCCANEERS will hope that the departure of Barber, who was a key driving force for the Giants in the loss, and the arrival of veteran, and often heroic efforts from Jeff Garcia in Tampa Bay, will be the difference in a matchup that went the Giants way as Gradkowski struggled through the air with only 139 passing yards for 3 points.
A clearer line is in Seattle, where outside of those Washington Redskins fans that have weathered the many losing season, few recall the 2005 season when Gibbs and Brunell closed the season 5-0 ATS, including 3 dominant victories over divisional foes, which landed his team in Seattle for the divisional playoffs. Although Brunell powered out 242 passing yards, the lack of a rushing attack left them in a 10 point hole at the final buzzer. With many of those Seahawks players who drove that victory gone, Gibbs, whose redskins closed the season 4-0 ATS on over 25 points per game in those games, will look to play his ADVANTAGE, and reproduce the repetitive success he had at Home in 2003 and 2005 during the regular season.
KING TRENDS
1.2The boldest line is in Pittsburgh where I had written in Week 15 of the 'pink slip' that the Jacksonville Jaguars owned in their matchups with the PITTSBURGH STEELERS; the Jaguars going on to power 421 yards of offense in their victory of which 224 of those yards were on the ground. In questionable health, Roethlisberger, who only put up 106 passing yards in the lopsided Week 15 loss, and only 127 passing yards here in 2006, will have trouble finding a way to shed the monkey of the Jaguars. The Jaguars will look to take advantage of a Steelers defense that in going 2-3 ATS in their last five regular season games, including a couple of lower tier NFL offenses, allowed an average of just shy of 25 points per game. 3-0 ATS in their last three battle with Pittsburgh, 5-0 ATS dating back to 2002, Del Rio, who has outscored the Steelers by an average of 6.5 points per game as 3 point Underdogs in both the previous contests in Pittsburgh now enters as the Favorites as they look to prove that 'History repeats itself' ADVANTAGE JAGUARS
1.2 The fine line is in San Diego. In Week 14, I wrote that if Turner was going to define himself as a 'Man' from 'the boys', he would need to continue Schottenheimer's reign over the Tennessee Titans in the unfriendly confines; although it took overtime, indeed he did. In the infamous game that cost Rivers the health of his knee, the SAN CHARGERS defense held Young to 13 completions for 121 passing yards for only 17 points. Having gone 2-0 ATS over the prior three years, holding the Titans to only 12 points per game, Tomlinson, who had powered 71 of the 241 rushing yards that led to a 40-7 blow out in 2006, powered out the 146 rushing yards necessary to beat the Titans here in Week 14 to go 3-0 ATS. Defense and Bironis field goals do not look like a winning strategy in this playoffs. With the Chargers averaging over 400 yards per game in the matchups, having arrived here to get the Chargers through the first round of the playoffs, Turner understands that 'History repeats itself' as he looks to parlay his 5-0 run ATS that propelled the Bolts into the playoffs. ADVANTAGE CHARGERS
DON'T BE FOOLED BY THE MEDIA HYPE No games this week.
© M.O. Productions 12.26.07
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