With the dawning of the 2011 tennis season, comes the opportunity for many things.

Rafael Nadal has the opportunity to finally set himself apart from rival Roger Federer, by pulling off a win at the season’s opening Grand Slam at the Australian Open.

For years, despite Nadal’s own lofty achievements, whether justly or unjustly, Nadal has always been mentioned in the context of Roger Federer. To the Swiss’ credit, he does have 16 Grand Slam titles, a number tough to overshadow. But Nadal, who himself has compiled 9 slams of his own, and completed a career golden slam at age 24 (a notoriety which Federer is still seeking), stands on the verge of a truly historic accomplishment.

Nadal has the opportunity to become the first male tennis player ever to win four consecutive Grand Slam Singles titles on four different surfaces. Andre Agassi fell short by a single match from Roland Garros 1999 to the Australian Open 2000, losing only the Wimbledon Final. More recently Roger Federer fell just short of a calendar Slam in 2006 and 2007, losing the French Open Final on both occasions. While Rod Laver earned the unique distinction of winning two calendar slams, three of the four Majors were played on grass and the other on clay.

Part of the remarkable nature of the modern feat would be the fact that now two of the four Majors are played on hard courts, a surface which is much more grueling on the body. Indeed, it takes a very special player and a very unique mental outlook to accomplish such a feat. A second Australian Open title would mark Nadal’s third hard court Grand Slam Singles title, relegating claims of his being a mere clay court specialist to the realm of stupidity. It would also put him in a context of his own, in the realm of accomplishment not shared with Roger Federer.  Nadal would stand by himself, and force the public to accept that we are, and have been since 2008 living in the Nadal Era.

Federer will be looking to reap big dividens from his new partnership with Paul Annacone.
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Without a doubt Roger Federer will enter the Australian Open with guns blazing, feeling about a confident as he can these days. Federer did indeed win the pair’s latest official ATP encounter, a terrific three set win at the World Tour Finals in London. Strictly by the numbers, Federer was the hottest player on tour from after Wimbledon until the close of the season. Despite those stats, Roger would almost certainly trade his sterling match record, and even his WTF Title for a coveted U.S. Open trophy, a piece of hardware that went to his rival Nadal.

As Federer enters the twilight of his career, he is still able to find motivation that most Champions begin to lack at this stage of their careers. That motivation comes from Rafael Nadal.

Federer wants to beat him so badly he can taste it. Knowing full well that Nadal is and has been playing at a level above everyone else on the tour for about a year now, the Swiss demonstrated his will to improve by hiring former Pete Sampras coach, Paul Annacone. So far the results have been pretty good by Federer’s lofty standards, amazing by normal standards. But as Annacone and Federer know, ultimately the success or failure of this partnership will be solely based upon Federer’s winning Grand Slams.

Can Annacone affect enough change in Roger’s game to make him present a stiffer challenge to the world’s best player? The jury remains out. One positive sign for Federer is that he was able to defeat Nadal in London. It was a three set match, and winning a decisive set against a player who enjoys a distinct mental advantage is a giant step toward evening the rivalry. But a low bouncing-indoor court, in a best of three set-formats is a far cry from beating Nadal in a grueling best of five set Grand Slam Final environment. While Federer’s return of serve seems to be better than it ever has been, Nadal’s serve seems to be better than it ever has been.

Berdych is one of few men who have the game to stay with Nadal and Federer.
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In looking at Roger and Rafa, it seems to be that these two titans appear to be on course for perhaps one final Major encounter. But we’d be foolish to dismiss a few others who can challenge even these two great players.

While Robin Soderling will be a fashionable upset pick, I don’t see it happening. To me, Soderling has shown his entire hand. He threw out the kitchen sink to beat Roger Federer at Roland Garros last year, and had a chance to assert himself as a Grand Slam contender by beating the man he’d dethroned the previous year, in the Final. Beating Federer and Nadal in the same event would have taken Soderling’s confidence to the next level, and made him a much more dangerous player. He played his heart out in the Final of Roland Garros, and was simply beaten by Nadal, who was simply a better player. He had a legitimate shot at revenge at Wimbledon a few weeks later and the truth was confirmed again. Finally at the U.S. Open QF a lopsided loss to Federer, it became even more apparent. Robin Soderling is a top 10 player, but not a guy with a complete enough game to win a Grand Slam in this day and age. Perhaps five or six years ago he could have snuck one or two in, but not now. The win’s over Federer and Nadal over the past two years seem more like an anomaly than the rule. His lack of variety and movement will stall him.

The two men who do not fear Nadal or Federer, yet still are not as good as good as them are Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray.

If anyone other than Nadal or Federer is to win this upcoming Grand Slam, Djokovic is the guy. Murray has the potential, but has been streaky in Grand Slam play. Murray matches up very well with Nadal on a slow hard court, but best of three is a lot different than best of five. Also, there were weaknesses present in Nadal’s game at the times Murray  collected his two Grand Slam wins over Nadal which simply aren’t present now.

In other words, Nadal has gotten better while Murray is more or less the same player.

Djokovic’s lot is much stronger. Principally because he’s won a Grand Slam title already and understands what it takes to do so. Second, he’s beaten Roger Federer in a Grand Slam (a notoriety which provides players with a certain swagger). Finally, his game is probably the second (only to Nadal) most balanced between offense and defense. The Djokovic movement allows him to defend the court nearly as well as Andy Murray while his timing and technique (especially on the forehand) allow him to dictate play and sting clean winners down the lines in a way that few players can. Djokovic is explosive enough to put the ball by both Federer and Nadal. But he’s also patient enough to hang with them in longer rallies. His best is not as good as their best, and his average game is not as good as their average game, but in a combination of him playing his best and Federer or Nadal playing average or below average can put Djokovic in the winner’s circle.

Another man to look out for is Tomas Berdych. Many so-called experts would like to write his 2010 off as a one year aberration. I’m not buying that. Berdych is one of the purest ball strikers on the tour right now. He’s got Soderling’s power, but with a lot more mobility, a lot more touch, and a lot more variety. If his serve is working, he can beat anyone in the world with power and placement. Berdych has played well in the beginning part of the season before. He likes a slow hard court surface, and if he’s feeling he’s one of the very few players on tour with even a shot to bother Federer or even Nadal. Don’t give up on Soderling quite yet.

At the end of the day, there is a better than 50% chance that we will be looking at a Federer-Nadal Final once again. I think it could be the last time, so should it happen savor it, DVR it, it’s likely the last time both these guys will play each other when both are relatively close to their peaks.

Without even seeing the draw, I’m picking Rafael Nadal to win his fourth consecutive Grand Slam title, and 10th overall of his career. Why? Isn’t it obvious? Nadal hasn’t been in even any remote danger in a best of five set match since Wimbledon, even then the fifth set was low drama. Rafa is too strong, too fast, too good for anybody to beat in a best of five set match.

The fact that he not only won three consecutive Majors, but lost a total of one set in two of them combined (Roland Garros and U.S. Open) lets the world know that no one is as good as Rafa in a Slam. Federer will likely be Nadal’s nemesis in the Final, but even at his best it’s difficult to see him winning more than a set off Nadal. Expect a spirited performance, similar to the display Djokovic put on at the U.S. Open Final, in the end Nadal will simply have a little too much even for Federer.