Saturday December 24th at 8pm EST, the Hawaii Warriors will take on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in Honolulu Stadium.  This is essentially a home game for Hawaii, and while both teams boast high powered offenses, Hawaii comes into this game favored by ten points according to our latest college bowl odds.

Hawaii (10-3 7-1 WAC) survived an early season stumble to finish the season strong—blowing out every opponent soundly except for a 42-7 loss to Boise State in the last six games of their schedule.  The Warriors have been known for a strong passing attack for several years, but balance that this season with a capable running game and a solid defense.

Offensively the Warriors are still a pass-first team.  The pass for an astounding 387.8 ypg and have thrown 39 TDs to only 12 INTs. They have balanced that attack with a running game that is producing a misleading 109.1 ypg and 23 TDs, that is on only 281 carries nearly 100 less than the average for a college team and the rushing total includes lost yards from backwards passes and sacks. 

Leading rusher Alex Green has rushed for 1,158 yards on an 8.8 ypc avg while scoring 17 rushing TDS.  QB Bryant Moniz has put up pedestrian TD totals for this Hawaii offense with only 36, but every other number is close to a season record which is impressive considering the careers that Timmy Chang and Colt Brennan enjoyed while at Hawaii.

So, while the numbers may not show it Hawaii actually has a balanced offense and can choose to take the air out of the ball and milk clock.  Hawaii boasts a pair of excellent receivers in slot Greg Salas (106 rec., 1,675 yards, 12 TDs) and Kealoha Pilares (88 rec., 1,306 yards, 15 TDs) who are both reliable chain movers and can make big plays.

Hawaii’s offense is not as efficient as you would expect converting only 38% of their 3rd down chances and only 82% of their 62 red zone appearances (56% TD rate) which to me further illustrates how this can be a team that survives and thrives on the big play.  They have scored 25 TDs from 25 yards out or further.

They have a very solid defense allowing 131.8 ypg on the ground and 17 TDs while forcing 13 fumbles.  They allow an average on 212.4 ypg through the air and have allowed 21 TDs while forcing 23 INTs.  This team allows a total of 22.7, but except for the Boise State blemish has really come together in the last six games allowing only 17.5 ppg including the 42 total from the BSU game.  They are very strong at the beginning of the game allowing only USC, the first opponent of the year, to score a TD on its opening drive and have forced 6 3 and outs giving their offense a chance to build an early lead and let the D attack a one dimensional offense. The defense has generated several of its own scores off turnovers.  Hawaii has a TO margin +14.

They are solid on special teams but not spectacular.  They have a kicker who is very good from inside 40, a solid kick off unit, and a shaky punting team.  They are not a dangerous return unit.

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-3 6-2 CUSA) enter this game as winners of their last six and eight of their last nine, including a program making upset win over Notre Dame on the road late in the season.  This is an offensive minded team and are forced to outscore opponents.  They have several strong individual players including QB G.J. Kinne who is the team’s leading rusher as well as a solid passer, and two solid receivers in Charles Clay (11 TDs on only 41 rec.) and Damaris Johnson who also doubles as a dangerous returner (12.5 Pr avg 1 TD, 27.4 KR avg 1 TD, 53 rec 771 yards).  Tulsa as a team struggles defensively and especially with the pass.

Offensively this is a balanced attack- they can run or pass equally well and score a lot of points- 39.7 ppg.  They spread the ball around to several backs but manage to average 284.2 ypg with 29 TDs on the ground along with 284.2 ypg passing with a 29 TD to 11 INT ratio.  They have given up 24 sacks on the season and Kinne is a very mobile QB.

This is a fairly efficient team converting on 48 percent of their third downs this season and 84 percent of their red zone chances with a 66 percent TD rate.  This is a team that generally has to drive the ball to score as 42 of their 58 offensive TDs were scored in the red zone.  They spread the ball around to multiple targets and multiple backs, so they can be tough to prepare for but are similar in style to Hawaii offensively.

Defensively this team is a mess.  They do a nice job of forcing turnovers, but still allow an average of 29.9 ppg and a total of 442.6 ypg.  They are decent against the run allowing 136.9 ypg with only 14 TDs to 11 fumbles, but through the air they allow 305.7 ypg and 30 TDs and this is going to be a problem when facing the #1 passing team in the nation in what is essentially a home game.  This defense struggles to get off the field on 3rd down allowing opponents to convert 43% of their tries, and while their red zone numbers are solid ( 72% on 37 trips 62% TD rate) it also shows me they are vulnerable to the big play allowing 22 TDs defensively of 21 or more yards this season.  This is a nightmare match up for Tulsa.

The best matchup for Tulsa is with their special teams units.  They boast excellent punting and very good coverage for that unit, are very solid at covering kicks, and are very, very dangerous when returning kicks.  Hawaii is vulnerable in that department.  Field Goal kicker Fitzpatrick is solid inside of 40 but has missed 3 of his last 6 overall.

The easy prediction on this is to take the over in this match up.  While Hawaii’s defense is solid, this will be one of the better offenses they have faced this season, and they have the potential to devastate this Tulsa defense.  With the basis of 73 as the over this is an easy selection for the over.  I also like the favorite Hawaii here as 10-point favorites in what is essentially a home game for a couple of reasons- this is a bad match up for the Tulsa defense, Hawaii plays enough defense to let them build a cushion and make Tulsa one dimensional and force turnovers.  Finally Tulsa’s players may not be mentally prepared to play in Hawaii- the weather will be a drastic change for them, there are a lot of distractions away from their practice time and Hawaii is used to being there.  I like Hawaii by a final score of 52-31.

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