Vegas has gone nuts. Abso-frikkin-nuts.
Indy +6.5 at home against Tennessee? Just because the Titans need the win? Really? I think Tom Moore could suit up and receive passes from Sorgi and they could STILL beat the Titans this week.
Don't forget, while the marquee players only play for a quarter or two, the real money players on the front lines almost never sit. That means even when they run with Kenton Keith, Indy will be running behind one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, no matter what Albert Haynesworth is doing.
Jacksonville +6? Seattle +2.5? And, on the flip side, Cleveland -9???? Giving nine points? Since Week 8, all but one of their games have been settled by less than 9. The one "blowout" win? They beat Houston by 10 in week 12. How likely is it that they win by 9 at this point? I would say pretty freaking unlikely. And so would the box.
Here are the early picks:
| THE PICKS | Over / |
| * considers lay in pick order | Under |
| 1. TB +2.5 v. CAR @Home | 40.5 |
| 2. SEA +2.5 v. ATL Away | 40.5 |
| 3. CIN -2.5 v. MIA Away | 38.5 |
| 4. GB -3.5 v. DET @Home | 40.5 |
| 5. OAK +8 v. SD @Home | 41.5 |
| 6. PIT +3.5 v. BAL Away | 40.0 |
| 7. JAC +6 v. HOU Away - Bet Soon | 42.5 |
| 8. SF +9 v. CLE Away - Bet Soon | 40.5 |
| 9. NO -2 v. CHI Away | 43.0 |
| 10. IND +6.5 v. TEN @Home | 43.5 |
| 11. DEN +3 v. MIN @Home - Bet Soon | 42.0 |
| 12. NYG +14 v. NE @Home - Bet Soon | 45.0 |
| 13. BUF +7.5 v. PHI Away | 43.5 |
| 14. DAL +9 v. WAS Away - Bet Soon | 43.0 |
| 15. STL +6 v. ARI Away - Bet Soon | 37.5 |
| 16. KC +6 v. NYJ Away - Bet Soon | 39.0 |
I like that one-two punch in Seattle and TB—TB coming off an embarrassing loss (that won me some $$ last week) and Seattle coming off an even more embarrassing loss, despite not needing the W at all.
I know the Colts and Cowboys are lower conviction picks, but I can't help be drawn to those games that clearly feel like they were handicapped to reflect public sentiment more than team performance. Week 17 is an excellent week for arbitrage I think, as the "who will play" frenzy that factors into the spreads is often overwrought. In fact, if the Box were Vegas and ignored the statistics, here's how it would have handicapped this week:
| Vegas | Vegas | ||
| Fav | Guess | Actual | Dog |
| NE | -14 | -14 | NYG |
| PHI | -3.5 | -7.5 | BUF |
| GB | -5 | -3.5 | DET |
| NO | -4 | -2 | CHI |
| HOU | 3 | -6 | JAC |
| CAR | 4 | -2.5 | TB |
| CLE | -13 | -9 | SF |
| CIN | -6.5 | -2.5 | MIA |
| ATL | 9.5 | -2.5 | SEA |
| WAS | 9.5 | -9 | DAL |
| PIT | -8 | 3.5 | BAL |
| ARI | -7 | -6 | STL |
| SD | -7 | -8 | OAK |
| MIN | -4 | -3 | DEN |
| NYJ | -3 | -6 | KC |
| TEN | 10 | -6.5 | IND |
There are some giant shifts there—owing entirely to public sentiment. If the spread was like the stock market, this is a nice bear market chance to make some money on quality teams that are undervalued because of mob mentality.
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8 months ago
I'm gonna hold off for a sec to inform you that the purpose behind NFL lines isn't to pick a winner, it's to invoke public interest. Obviously it's working.
from 8 months ago
the purpose of the line is to set a line at which an equal number of people will bet either team in the long run. it isn't to invoke public interest, it's to allow the public to make an argument either way. it is a valuation in the same way ebay, the stock market, and any auction house is a valuation.
the inherent flaw in a vegas valuation is that it is not necessarily correlated to performance. that's my theory anyway, and the box works to expose it.
8 months ago
This is a whacked out weekend...I've never been more defeated making picks than I was today. It's going to be awful. How the hell can you pick winners with these lines?
8 months ago
Way to go, Matt - a bunch of terrible picks. As if we didn't know before this week, you're a huge retard that can't pick games for shit.
from 8 months ago
winning is a long term prospect, not week to week. my 2 season win percentage for my number 1 pick is over 60%. what's your win percentage?
from 7 months ago
It is needed for accessibility, but this is why anonymous posting has to go.
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