Roger Federer recently jump started his career by capturing the ATP World Tour Finals Championship in London with a three set victory over world number one Rafael Nadal. It’s was first time in a long time that Federer had secured back to back to back big wins over top flight opponents since the Australian Open triumph in early 2010.

The tennis world is buzzing. Fans of the second best player in the world have taken this recent triumph and run with it. Many believe that the 29 year-old Swiss is poised to mount a serious charge for the world number one ranking, and once claim supremacy in men’s tennis. No doubt, Federer’s path to number one must go through Rafael Nadal.

Currently, Nadal enjoys a 3,305 point cushion over Federer, and leads there head to head series 14-8, including a 5-2 mark in Grand Slam Finals. Despite Nadal’s dominance over every top player in 2010, Federer’s recent sterling form, and pairing with former Pete Sampras coach, Paul Annacone has given license to dream big, to many a Federer follower.

Federer ended 2010 on a very strong note, winning 40 of 44 hard court matches since his four set defeat  in the Quarterfinal round of Wimbledon. A 40-4 record is certainly an eye-opening, and going strictly by the numbers, the best run on tour over that span of time. However, looking closer the four defeats couldn’t have come at worst times. Two came in the Finals of Master’s 1000 events, to the same player, Andy Murray. The other two losses were big-time Semifinal defeats, the most glaring at the Semifinal of the U.S. Open, where he blew a lead over Novak Djokovic. The final loss was in the Semifinals of the Master’s 1000 event in Paris, losing to Gael Monfils.  

However, the WTF in London prove to be an important exercise for 16-time Grand Slam winner. London was important for Federer not because of the magnitude of the tournament (it’s not a Grand Slam, neither is it the first time he’s won this title). This tournament has significance because for the first time really since midway through the Australian Open 2010, Federer closed strong. Man know as the “Maestro” upped his playing level to the point of once again being dominant, and finished his matches strongly. Signature wins over Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic were impressive, as Federer had taken some tough hits against these two younger players over the course of the season. His victory over Nadal was the topper, and will provide him with a boost of confidence going into 2011.

If Federer is to return to the number one spot, his pathway will go through Rafael Nadal at some point. Contrary to the beliefs of casual tennis fans, ex champions, pundits, and tennis experts know that one win over a guy who’s had your number five times out of seven Grand Slam Finals, is not enough to turn the tide of the rivalry. It’s a nice start, but Federer must overcome the Nadal hurdle in Grand Slam competition.

The road will not be easy for Federer considering that Nadal is hands down the best big match player in the world at the moment. Not only has he won three consecutive Grand Slam events, but he enjoys a career record of 14-3 in five set matches. That’s a rare mark. Federer’s nerve has come into question recently amid some blown matches on some big stages (l. Del Potro, 2009 U.S. Open Final; l. Djokovic, 2010 U.S. Open Final). Can Roger Federer still close? The jury is still out.

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As for the rivalry of the decade, what does it really come down to? Nadal wins about two matches against Federer for every one that Federer wins. Why? There is an interesting answer to this. Nadal has been about to beat Federer more often than not for a couple of reasons.

• First of all, Federer believes that he has to play perfectly to beat Nadal. Nadal does not believe that he has to play perfectly to beat Federer. This can be seen by how relaxed Nadal on court against Federer and how tight Federer is. This is visible in the shot selection between the two. Federer feels as if he has to jump on Nadal early in a rally. He looks to attack with his forehand even more than usual. Nadal plays his cross court shots and waits for a ball he likes before unleashing his lethal forehand up the line. Even if he finds himself down an early break, he never seems bothered by anything Federer does. Federer seems to go through a range of emotions against Nadal, from intense to irritated, to fired up, finally to resignation.

• Second, the court usually shrinks on Federer. Nadal is so fast, and defends so well that he can keep neutral in a point where Federer has hit two or three brilliant shots. These are shots which would be winners against any other player. It’s unnerving for Federer who keeps upping the ante, until either he wins the point out right or makes an error. Federer didn’t miss much against Nadal in their most recent encounter, thus he won. However the percentages are not with him. He will not play that well every single time out, more often than not when he toes the line that often he’s going to miss more than he makes. It’s not a case of Federer’s best tennis not being enough to beat Nadal. Federer is talented enough to be any player on any given day, if he’s in top form. However, typically a tennis player is only going to play that well a handful of times per year. Likewise, Nadal isn’t going to be in his 2008 French Open Final form every match either. The mark of a great player is how good their game is on an average day. Can they win at 80% capacity? That’s where this rivalry has been lopsided at times. Nadal has beaten Federer in Majors on occasions where he wasn’t playing awesome tennis. When he’s keeping it in neutral, his game is still a tough match-up for Federer.

• Third, the Nadal forehand to the Federer backhand is usually a mismatch. Quite frankly put, it’s a great shot matching up with a good shot. Federer has no weakness in his game. That’s a fact. His backhand is a good shot. But Nadal’s forehand is perhaps the best  the sport has ever seen. Early in a match, depending on the surface Federer can keep it somewhat even going backhand to forehand. But in longer matches, especially best of five set matches his backhand begins to lose its zip. The cross court backhand starts to die shallow in the center of the court, and then its snack time for Nadal. Short of growing a few more inches, or packing on a little bit more muscle up top, there isn’t much that Federer can do about it.

• Fourth, let’s take a closer look at Federer’s eight victories over Nadal. I’m going to show you something interesting. Federer recorded his first career victory over Nadal in 2005, overcoming two sets to love deficit against an 18 year-old and relatively unknown Nadal. The surface was medium speed hard court in Miami. Nadal dominated the world number one early on, but crumbled after being unable to close out Federer early. Since then, Federer has not beaten Rafael Nadal on an outdoor hard court. Two victories on clay in the Finals of both Hamburg and Madrid, both coming less than 24 hours after Nadal had won grueling three and a half hour plus Semifinals. Two victories came on grass at Wimbledon, one four setter and one five setter. The last in coming in 2007.  The other three wins have come at the WTF, in 2006, 2007 and again this year. All three matches were conducted on indoor surfaces. I think that it’s fairly obvious that the truth of the situation is that when you have two great players the deciding factors are usually going to be little things. Things such as the playing conditions. Federer is one of the best indoor players of all time. I don’t think that it’s a secret that an indoor court plays differently from an outdoor court. In perfect playing conditions, Roger excels. The best of three set format also benefits Federer. He doesn’t need to keep up an extremely high standard for as long as he’d need to in a best of five set match. He can build up momentum and close it out quickly. Perhaps most importantly, the physical toll of playing Nadal is much less in a best of three set match.

The weight of Nadal’s shots force a player the hit the ball harder than normal just to keep even in a point. Let me explain it this way, when you face a player who has the weight of shot (by weight I refer to heavy spin and pace combined) that Nadal has, the ball literally pushes your racquet backwards. A player must meet force with force. Let’s conservatively say that the average player has to swing at the ball 8% harder to get the same effect on the ball that normally would against any other player on tour. They must swing even harder move ahead in the point. Now think about it, every time you swing at the ball, you are swinging harder than you are used to. Then tack on the fact that Nadal a human backboard, even your best shots which mentally, you are not used to seeing returned at you, start coming back. So you are rallying a lot more than you are used to. So let’s recap, you are expending extra energy just to hit a normal shot, even more energy to take offense, and on top of that you are involved in longer rallies than you’re used to. Most players can play one competitive set at that level (and these are professionals), before their level tails off significantly. Federer is far from an average ATP player. He’s in great shape, and has quite a bit of firepower, so he’s able to last longer. But then think about when he’s two sets in. Sets are pretty long when playing Nadal. Most likely he will split sets with Nadal. In a best of five set match, he potentially has to expend this much energy for three more sets. It’s torture. Even for Nadal, who can be worn out if he has to play back to back tough matches, he can start out slow and play his way into a match. Once he starts running, he knows how to manage his energy; he knows that in long matches he’s going to get a burst of energy (or a second wind). We’ve seen it from him in the past, it’s one of the reasons he owns a 14-3 five set match record. Nadal is perhaps the most brutal five set opponent a player can face. Federer, who has always been a bit inconsistent in five set matches (17-14 career mark), is in even more trouble against Nadal when match is drawn out. It’s been nearly four years since Federer has beaten Nadal in a best of five set match. Remember, Federer was in his physical prime back in 2007 when he defeated Nadal in a five set Wimbledon Final. He’s lost two five setters to the Spaniard since. At 29, it’s hard to believe he’s physically stronger that he was at 27. Simply put, the chances of Federer all of the sudden being able to neat a bigger, stronger, faster, younger guy, in a best of five set match, on an outdoor court, regardless of the surface, seem a little more than a pipe dream.

The Federer/Nadal rivalry hinges primarily on the fact that Nadal is physically too much for Roger. Add that on to the fact that Nadal continues to improve at an unheard of rate, and has become as complete a player as Federer. While Federer is still capable of the occasional win over Nadal, in a best of three set format, the smart money will be bet on Nadal when it comes to a potential Grand Slam encounter.