NFL Preview Part One: The AFC

San Diego 10.5 W, O (-210) U (+170) Proj. 10-6

With a healthy Merriman, I’d pencil them in for 13-3. Without him, 9-7 seems more appropriate. It looks like he’s going to play, but he won’t be the same player. Four wins is quite a big swing, but without Merriman, the Chargers will struggle to pressure the quarterback, and the best defense in the league suddenly becomes pedestrian.

So let’s go 10-6. They should still win the division.

AFC EAST 

Miami 5.5 W, O (even) U (-130) Proj. 4-12

Do you think Parcells is respected? Even with the improvements to the rest of the division, the line is at 5.5, which looks like easy money until reality (-130) sets in.

Buffalo 7.5 W, O (-160) U (+130) Proj. 9-7

It gets cold in Buffalo. So cold they can’t sell out December home games and will play a home game in Toronto this year. They end the season with (Home in caps) SF, MIA, Nyj, Den, and a very winnable home game against the Pats in Week 17. That stretch has 3-2 or maybe even 4-1 written all over it.

New York 8 W, O (-160) U (+130) Proj. 9-7

I think the difference between New York and Buffalo is going to be Week 15 at home. The winner might get to flip a coin with the third place team in the South for the final playoff birth.

The Jets open the season with a gimmie against Miami before playing New England and San Diego back-to-back. They then come home and play Arizona before the bye. If Arizona can come into New York and leave the Jets at 1-3, the media may turn on golden boy, and if that happens, all bets are off.

New England 12 W, O (-145) U (+115) Proj. 15-1

The book doesn’t want any action on the Patriots. 12 wins is absurdly low, unless Brady isn’t ready to play. As a result, the book makes it unprofitable to bet the over, and the under doesn’t pay anywhere close to how much it should.

For the second-straight year, the Pats have one of the easiest schedules in football, and this year, would you bet they don’t come in motivated to rectify 18-1?

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh 9 W, O (even) U (-130) Proj. 8-8

Before you cry foul Steeler fans, look at the under.

I see one more season on the top, sort of how Seattle holds down the NFC West. We know the D isn’t as good, the line gives up too many hits on the quarterback, and Vegas does not want you to take the under.

Now this is what I think: I think their schedule is brutal and they won’t have one game where they’re an overwhelming favorite. I think the AFC North winner will have a 4-2 record within the division, and the worst team (Cinci) will go 2-4.

I think the Steelers beat the Browns twice, the Browns sweep the Bengals, and the Ravens split with everyone.

I think Pittsburgh wins eight games this year and finishes substantially better than their record.

Cleveland 8 W, O (-115) U (-115) Proj. 7-9

Some red flags with this team:

-Peter King raved about the cafeteria during the first week of camp but ended the preseason with the impression that the team lacks a sense of urgency. Convincing Peter King that you’re playing with urgency is like when your grandmother corners you and starts talking about Jesus. It doesn’t take much to please her.

-Everyone is rooting for them.

-Their starting quarterback suffered a concussion (never a good sign).

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