You can find the NFC here.
One of my favorite rituals while waiting for the season to start is predicting the win-loss records for each team and applying them to futures bets I never make.
Why do I spend so much time researching bets I don’t bother playing? I like to think it pays off later in the season. Besides, it’s always fun to nail something like your 2007 NFC West Champion, the St. Louis Rams.
There are many reasons I rarely play win futures. For starters, as you’re about to read, it’s not as simple as, “The Pats are 12, so I’ll take the over!”
The reality is that the bet is: Pats 12 wins Over (-145), which means you’re paying $145 to win $100.
And that sucks.
You’re also waiting a whole four months before you lose your bet, and what fun is that? You could be using that money to lay bets on Sunday morning, of which you can find that you’ve lost your money by Sunday afternoon. So why wait?
To be honest though, if I had a big enough bankroll to throw down a $1,000 on the handful win futures that are worth it I’d do it. Of course, there’re pesky things like college funds, retirement, and reality that get in the way of that.
I’ll preview the AFC today, and get to the NFC tomorrow.
AFC WEST
Kansas City 5.5 W, O (-120) U (even) Proj. 4-12
There’s not a lot to like here. Tony G. and Dwayne Bowe...that’s about it. What else is there? Larry Johnson is running behind what looks like the worst line in football, my uncle Ricky’s semipro team has already agreed to terms with Croyle’s agent when he gets cut, (I advised him against it, but he never listens to me), and their best defensive player was traded to the Vikings...they’re rebuilding.
Oakland 6 W, O (-145) U (+115) Proj. 5-11
The over/under is six, and Vegas wants you to take the under. I like the under, so who’s wrong? Well, we know the Raiders can run, they’ve got a decent defense, and they play in a weak division. So how do I justify five wins?
Buffalo, San Diego (twice), Saints, Jets, Panthers, Pats, Texans, and Bucs. They’ll probably split with KC, get one with Denver, if they’re lucky, and the only other teams that aren’t substantially better on their schedule are Miami, Baltimore, and Atlanta.
Darren McFadden is going off at 50-1 to win the rushing title. They can run, and Fargas has never been the healthiest guy.
Denver 7.5 W, O (-180) U (+150) Proj. 7-9
Yet another where I disagree with the experts. For starters, Selvin Young is talking about 2,000 yards, so if you drafted him, my condolences. The defensive line hasn’t been improved, and I don’t think the addition of Niko Koutouvides and Boss Bailey are going to help a hell of a lot.
What we’re left with is a middle-of-the-road offense and a defense that’s not very good after Champ Bailey. Seven wins might be too much.
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