You can find the NFC here.
One of my favorite rituals while waiting for the season to start is predicting the win-loss records for each team and applying them to futures bets I never make.
Why do I spend so much time researching bets I don’t bother playing? I like to think it pays off later in the season. Besides, it’s always fun to nail something like your 2007 NFC West Champion, the St. Louis Rams.
There are many reasons I rarely play win futures. For starters, as you’re about to read, it’s not as simple as, “The Pats are 12, so I’ll take the over!”
The reality is that the bet is: Pats 12 wins Over (-145), which means you’re paying $145 to win $100.
And that sucks.
You’re also waiting a whole four months before you lose your bet, and what fun is that? You could be using that money to lay bets on Sunday morning, of which you can find that you’ve lost your money by Sunday afternoon. So why wait?
To be honest though, if I had a big enough bankroll to throw down a $1,000 on the handful win futures that are worth it I’d do it. Of course, there’re pesky things like college funds, retirement, and reality that get in the way of that.
I’ll preview the AFC today, and get to the NFC tomorrow.
AFC WEST
Kansas City 5.5 W, O (-120) U (even) Proj. 4-12
There’s not a lot to like here. Tony G. and Dwayne Bowe...that’s about it. What else is there? Larry Johnson is running behind what looks like the worst line in football, my uncle Ricky’s semipro team has already agreed to terms with Croyle’s agent when he gets cut, (I advised him against it, but he never listens to me), and their best defensive player was traded to the Vikings...they’re rebuilding.
Oakland 6 W, O (-145) U (+115) Proj. 5-11
The over/under is six, and Vegas wants you to take the under. I like the under, so who’s wrong? Well, we know the Raiders can run, they’ve got a decent defense, and they play in a weak division. So how do I justify five wins?
7 comments Last one added 10 months ago — Leave a Comment
Raider Card Addict 10 months ago
I'll take the over for the Raiders.
With a lukewarm schedule, 3rd easiest, and one playoff game in the first 12, the Raiders have an advantage, just on the numbers.
Having a solid running game, helps big time, because not only can they move the ball, they can also kill the clock. This wasnt' the case last year, with a running game that was good, but not game-breaking.
You could also mark down Zach miller going for 1000 yards, because if the teams pack the box to stop McFadden, Miller's turned into the escape hatch for Russell....and last year, they hooked up a lot in the short time they played together.
What's the numbers on Miller with say, 60 catches and 1000 yards?
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Rob Ohlstrom 10 months ago
I'm not at all convinced that Russell is ready to manage games, (much less win them on his own) and the defense is good, but not dominate by any means. I think the Raiders are one to two years away if Russell develops into a quality starter.
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Raider Card Addict 10 months ago
Think a lot of the nerves on Russell, got settled as the preseason went along. I think the only thing he needs, is to have a roster of WRs that can catch....losing Drew Carter didn't help, but having a solid running game takes a lot of the heat off of Russell.
Remember how the broncos got their two super bowl rings? It wasn't because Elway got better, it's because they finally got a RB to take the load when Elway went wild. They'd let Terrell Davis punch holes in the opponents. The second season proved it, when Elway had the lowest output for his career. Heck, Terrell almost have as many yards on the ground that Elway had in the air. Scary.
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Bruce Dickenson 10 months ago
I can't imagine the Texans over Jacksonville. I can't imagine the Steelers at 8-8. And I can't imagine 15 wins for any team this year.
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Rob Ohlstrom 10 months ago
Could you imagine the Pats at 16-0, or the Browns winning ten games last season? Did you see the Giants winning the SB?
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Bruce Dickenson 10 months ago
Nope and I commend you on your risk taking. I always blast people that write predictions that mirror the ending standing from the prior year.
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Rob Ohlstrom 10 months ago
Thanks, but I'll tell you what, if Houston doesn't upset Pittsburgh that risk taking might be for naught.
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