Do It, Theo: Why Johan Santana Makes Sense for the Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox are on the verge of trading young talent for the best left-handed pitcher in Major League Baseball.

The Sox could probably finish a deal for Johan Santana today if they'd include Jacoby Ellsbury in a package with Jon Lester and two mid- to high-level minor league prospects (shortstop Jed Lowrie and pitcher Justin Masterson).

Theo Epstein and Co. have so far resisted the inclusion of both Lester and Ellsbury, reportedly putting two separate packages on the table with one of the two players in each.

But why wouldn't the Red Sox include Lester? After all, they'd be replacing a strong pitching prospect with a two-time Cy Young winner.

The Sox have also offered Coco Crisp in lieu of Ellsbury. Crisp is one of the best defensive outfielders in the AL, and should have won a Gold Glove in 2007. His career offensive numbers show an average hitter with above-average speed on the basepaths.

Considering that the Red Sox have won two of the last four World Series on the strength of their starting rotation, pitching should continue to be their priority. In 2004, the Sox started the same five pitchers throughout the season, and in 2007 had the second best ERA in baseball behind San Diego.

With the inclusion of Ellsbury, the Red Sox could probably eliminate Masterson from the trade, thus keeping one of their top pitching prospects, along with their best overall prospect in Clay Bucholz.  

To his credit, Ellsbury looked great in 2007. His speed is of the once-in-a-generation type, and he's a homegrown talent. But it's considerably easier to acquire an outfielder than it is to acquire a premier starter.

So go ahead Theo—bite the bullet.

A Santana deal would put the Tigers, Angels, and Yankees on notice that there will be no easy series against the Red Sox in 2008—not with Santana, Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, and Bucholz taking turns on the mound.

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