The RB Odometer: High Career-Carry Red Flags

The biggest milestone that we seem to have set for running backs is for when they turn 30 years old.

It’s not even a good milestone either, despite what the majority of the population will tell you. Our brains have been wired to signal alarm sounds in our minds and produce tunnel vision whenever a three—decade—old RB is even mentioned.




It’s always struck me as odd.

There HAD to be a better way to accomplish the same goal, with the goal being a common point in time when it is a good idea to expect a RB’s numbers to decline.

I’ve seen plenty of 27, 28, and 29—year—old backs regress and never again return to form. Why is a 30—year old so much different?

Because I wanted to do it correctly, and because the potential result may actually be useful, I thought for a while on how I could do this. Should I select a random middle grouping of RBs? Filter out most of them with a minimum requirement?

At first, I didn’t even consider using the top 10 in career carries, since I thought it would be a travesty to put such an upper—echelon of talent in with any lesser human beings.

Then I realized that they were indeed, still human, and that meant that their bodies were just as susceptible to damage as the others were.

So until we find out that John Riggins was made of metal, which is a definite possibility, I’ve included them.

To give a brief, step—by—step account of how this went down, I started off with a massively gigantic list of the top-200 RBs for total career carries.

A few seconds later, I realized how stupid it would be if I included most of them in the sample, so I whittled it down a bit.

I was eventually left with a list of nearly 100 and a minimum entry requirement of 1,200 carries.

I then took out all active players, those who were smart enough to retire before their rushing average dipped into horrific territory, (See: Barry Sanders, Corey Dillon, Tiki Barber) and anyone who played the majority of their career before 1978 (schedule jump year).

I then added everything together for the remaining list, but got a rushing amount average that seemed a tad skewed. How would I ever solve such a roadblock of a problem?

The answer was simple: With a little help from our friend, the tier system.

Not the tier system as we usually know it, since I only broke the total group into two tiers, but still.

The top group consisted of RBs that had at least 1,800 carries. The bottom group was those who had at least 1,200 to 1,799 carries.

Next, I went through the list, player by player, and marked the year in which they had their final solid season. I didn’t have any specific mathematical criteria, just looking through their career stats and picking the year that would turn out to be the year BEFORE their decline began.

Next, I calculated the amount of carries the given players had at that point. If you haven’t noticed by now, this whole system would be applied to RBs BEFORE the season starts. It’s a yearly way of tagging red flags. You could do it mid—season, but by then it wouldn’t be of much use.

Now, before I give the estimates and incur the wrath from those who have RBs with approaching limits on their fantasy rosters, let me just spell out how this could potentially be used.

The bottom half amount could be applied to everyone approaching the number of carries, with the realization that many have surpassed the limit and went on to have longer and even more consistent careers.

So the bottom half's red—flag amount isn’t really an end all, be all. In fact, we shouldn’t even call them red flags; they're more like educated doubts.

The top half amount is a better indicator of possible red flags, even though those would likely already exist for someone who’d been in the league long enough to rack up such a high amount of carries.

Hey, at least it's better than, “Uh, he’s 30. Expect an imminent and automatic decline, because uh, well, he’s 30!”

Or at least I hope it is.

Anyways, since I can’t explain or sugarcoat it anymore, here are the findings. And I know these are subject to a lot of outside factors and shouldn’t be taken TOO seriously, but you have to admit that it's intriguing.

The Bottom Tier: An average "educated doubt" for 1,280+ carries.

Notable active/currently inactive players who are approaching or who have passed 1,280 carries

1. Clinton Portis - 1,710
2. Thomas Jones - 1,659
3. Travis Henry - 1,488
4. Rudi Johnson - 1,441
5. Deuce McAllister - 1,322
6. Willis McGahee - 1,162
7. Larry Johnson - 1,050
8. Brian Westbrook - 1,014
9. Steven Jackson - 971
10. Willie Parker - 945

—Rudi Johnson may have been seen his last days as a starter who puts up big numbers, while Willis McGahee could begin regression due to injuries in 2008.
—Larry Johnson is running full speed ahead towards the 1,280 mark, with little to no regard for anyone or anything in his way.
—Brian Westbrook has proven to be one of the best backs in the NFL, but with more years than the average player in his position, he may be more affected the deeper he gets beyond 1,280 carries.
—Travis Henry could have seen his last solid year, but for reasons not related to actual football.

The Upper Tier: An average red flag for 2200+ carries.

Notable active/currently inactive players who are approaching or who have passed 2,200 carries

1. Edgerrin James - 2,849
2. Warrick Dunn - 2,483
3. LaDainian Tomlinson - 2,365
4. Fred Taylor - 2,285
5. Shaun Alexander - 2,176
6. Jamal Lewis - 2,120
7. Ahman Green - 1,941
8. Priest Holmes - 1,780
9. Ricky Williams - 1,763

—Edge is a beast and could be classified as one of the rare backs who can take a beating for an infinite amount of time. He has to regress at some point, though.
—LaDainian Tomlinson is still going strong, but his body has recently showed signs of the wear and tear that always comes with 2,350+ carries.
—Is this finally the year Fred Taylor plays like his age says he should?
—How effective can Ricky Williams be so far removed from football and with so much mileage on his odometer?

None of the players listed are a sure thing to regress this year, but it’s certainly worth taking a closer look at. Oh and some possible trade-ins, too.

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