The RB Odometer: High Career-Carry Red Flags

So the bottom half's red—flag amount isn’t really an end all, be all. In fact, we shouldn’t even call them red flags; they're more like educated doubts.

The top half amount is a better indicator of possible red flags, even though those would likely already exist for someone who’d been in the league long enough to rack up such a high amount of carries.

Hey, at least it's better than, “Uh, he’s 30. Expect an imminent and automatic decline, because uh, well, he’s 30!”

Or at least I hope it is.

Anyways, since I can’t explain or sugarcoat it anymore, here are the findings. And I know these are subject to a lot of outside factors and shouldn’t be taken TOO seriously, but you have to admit that it's intriguing.

The Bottom Tier: An average "educated doubt" for 1,280+ carries.

Notable active/currently inactive players who are approaching or who have passed 1,280 carries

1. Clinton Portis - 1,710
2. Thomas Jones - 1,659
3. Travis Henry - 1,488
4. Rudi Johnson - 1,441
5. Deuce McAllister - 1,322
6. Willis McGahee - 1,162
7. Larry Johnson - 1,050
8. Brian Westbrook - 1,014
9. Steven Jackson - 971
10. Willie Parker - 945

—Rudi Johnson may have been seen his last days as a starter who puts up big numbers, while Willis McGahee could begin regression due to injuries in 2008.
—Larry Johnson is running full speed ahead towards the 1,280 mark, with little to no regard for anyone or anything in his way.
—Brian Westbrook has proven to be one of the best backs in the NFL, but with more years than the average player in his position, he may be more affected the deeper he gets beyond 1,280 carries.
—Travis Henry could have seen his last solid year, but for reasons not related to actual football.

The Upper Tier: An average red flag for 2200+ carries.

Notable active/currently inactive players who are approaching or who have passed 2,200 carries

1. Edgerrin James - 2,849
2. Warrick Dunn - 2,483
3. LaDainian Tomlinson - 2,365
4. Fred Taylor - 2,285
5. Shaun Alexander - 2,176
6. Jamal Lewis - 2,120
7. Ahman Green - 1,941
8. Priest Holmes - 1,780
9. Ricky Williams - 1,763

—Edge is a beast and could be classified as one of the rare backs who can take a beating for an infinite amount of time. He has to regress at some point, though.
—LaDainian Tomlinson is still going strong, but his body has recently showed signs of the wear and tear that always comes with 2,350+ carries.
—Is this finally the year Fred Taylor plays like his age says he should?
—How effective can Ricky Williams be so far removed from football and with so much mileage on his odometer?

None of the players listed are a sure thing to regress this year, but it’s certainly worth taking a closer look at. Oh and some possible trade-ins, too.

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