The biggest milestone that we seem to have set for running backs is for when they turn 30 years old.
It’s not even a good milestone either, despite what the majority of the population will tell you. Our brains have been wired to signal alarm sounds in our minds and produce tunnel vision whenever a three—decade—old RB is even mentioned.
It’s always struck me as odd.
There HAD to be a better way to accomplish the same goal, with the goal being a common point in time when it is a good idea to expect a RB’s numbers to decline.
I’ve seen plenty of 27, 28, and 29—year—old backs regress and never again return to form. Why is a 30—year old so much different?
Because I wanted to do it correctly, and because the potential result may actually be useful, I thought for a while on how I could do this. Should I select a random middle grouping of RBs? Filter out most of them with a minimum requirement?
At first, I didn’t even consider using the top 10 in career carries, since I thought it would be a travesty to put such an upper—echelon of talent in with any lesser human beings.
Then I realized that they were indeed, still human, and that meant that their bodies were just as susceptible to damage as the others were.
So until we find out that John Riggins was made of metal, which is a definite possibility, I’ve included them.
To give a brief, step—by—step account of how this went down, I started off with a massively gigantic list of the top-200 RBs for total career carries.
A few seconds later, I realized how stupid it would be if I included most of them in the sample, so I whittled it down a bit.
I was eventually left with a list of nearly 100 and a minimum entry requirement of 1,200 carries.
I then took out all active players, those who were smart enough to retire before their rushing average dipped into horrific territory, (See: Barry Sanders, Corey Dillon, Tiki Barber) and anyone who played the majority of their career before 1978 (schedule jump year).
I then added everything together for the remaining list, but got a rushing amount average that seemed a tad skewed. How would I ever solve such a roadblock of a problem?
The answer was simple: With a little help from our friend, the tier system.
Not the tier system as we usually know it, since I only broke the total group into two tiers, but still.
The top group consisted of RBs that had at least 1,800 carries. The bottom group was those who had at least 1,200 to 1,799 carries.
Next, I went through the list, player by player, and marked the year in which they had their final solid season. I didn’t have any specific mathematical criteria, just looking through their career stats and picking the year that would turn out to be the year BEFORE their decline began.
11 comments Last one added 10 months ago — Leave a Comment
Saraswathi Siriginia 10 months ago
Good job, JM
Edit Comment Cancel
Saraswathi Siriginia 10 months ago
but is this auto racing tag right? except for the beaten car
Edit Comment Cancel
Josh Galligan 10 months ago
I don't know why, but whenever I auto-post from my blog, it gets tagged auto racing. And nothing at all on it is about cars. Or autos. Or racing. Or anything not directly related to football.
It's weird.
Edit Comment Cancel
Michael Inglis 10 months ago
I don't believe Priest Holmes is an active player.
Edit Comment Cancel
Colin Flosi 10 months ago
I think all of the 1,763+ carry group have fallen off, other than Tomlinson. Edge, Dunn, Taylor Alexander, Green, Holmes & Williams are not the same players they were earlier in their career. Ricky had time for his body to heal, so this year will be important to judge him. Jamal Lewis still has a chance to regain form, but this season in the most important.
Edit Comment Cancel
Michael Inglis 10 months ago
Lewis had a solid year last year.
Edit Comment Cancel
Sean Crowe 10 months ago
Great job. I enjoyed this.
Edit Comment Cancel
William Berry 10 months ago
Wow, great article! Some flaws in methodology, but that is unavoidable - I doubt I could do better.
Edit Comment Cancel
Bob Fletcher 10 months ago
Great read.
Edit Comment Cancel
Nick Deplitch 10 months ago
I like the use of carries over age.
To see if there is a correlation, you should organize the two tiers into RB types: Power Backs and Speed Backs (or heavy and light sizes).
Brian Westbrook, who is a speed back, is on your list and has missed time due to injury several times in his career, but never a season-ender. I think, because of his size and how the Eagles use him, that he will not decline for another couple years.
Other RBs from his tier are used like battering rams and their decline is a lot more obvious, such as Rudi Johnson, Duece McAllister, and Larry Johnson. All Power backs.
From the Upper Tier, you will notice there are not many genuine Power Backs. Most are middle of the row.
Edit Comment Cancel
Tom Highway 10 months ago
An interesting read, Joshua!
Edit Comment Cancel
Leave a Comment
You must register to post a comment.