NFL Picks Against the Spread For Every Game In Week 11
Week 11 in the NFL is here and the games start early again with a Thursday night game between the Bears and the Dolphins. Before moving on to week 11 here is a recap of the good, the bad, and the ugly of week 10.
The Good: It started off with a Thursday night win with the Falcons and then ended with an outright underdog win from the New England Patriots that was never in question.
The Bad: The Cleveland Browns were three point underdogs against the Jets. A fumble in overtime cost the outright victory and to make matters worse, the Browns allowed a breakaway touchdown that gave the Jets and the cover.
The Ugly: The ugliest part of the week was obviously my record as I finished the week at 5-9. Overall on the season my record now stands at 66-74-2.
With last week behind me, it’s on to week 11 and with no bye week’s left on the schedule there are plenty of games to cover.
Here are picks for every game in the NFL for week 11 against the spread.
Chicago at Miami
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Sun Life Stadium
I have a full in-depth write-up for this game here, but basically I am backing the Dolphins despite all the injuries that they had in the last game against the Titans. The Dolphins have also paid off at the betting window at a 4-1 ATS clip in the last five games and a very nice 7-3 ATS in the last ten games against teams with a winning record.
I will trust Tyler Thigpen over Jay Cutler and back a team on the ropes at home on a short week.
Buffalo at Cincinnati
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Paul Brown Stadium
The one win Buffalo Bills travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals to try and put together an actual winning streak. The latest NFL betting line as posted by Bet Revolution has the Bengals listed as 5.5 point home favorites.
The Bills play hard every down and although they just have one win on the season, it’s not for a lack of trying. The Bengals are one of the best teams on paper but can’t seem to get it to translate to wins on the field.
Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick played for the Bengals once upon a time and left because he wanted a chance to start in the NFL. This weekend he will get a chance to show his old team what they are missing.
The Bengals are 6-20 against the spread (ATS) in their last 26 games as a favorite and 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. The Bills seem to actually play better on the road as they are 28-11-1 ATS against a team with a losing record and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games.
The Bengals just find ways to lose games and although I think they pull this out in the end, they are not going to cover this number.
Detroit at Dallas
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Just when you thought they were dead, the Dallas Cowboys are back. This week they host the Detroit Lions to see if the big game against the Giants was just a mirage. The latest NFL betting line as posted by Bet Revolution has the Cowboys listed as six point home favorites.
The Lions became the unlucky team to be the first victim of the year to the Bills and extended their road losing streak.
The small changes that new coach Jason Garrett made resulted in a big game and the Cowboys now believe they can win. Rookie wide receiver Dez Bryant is every bit of a play-maker that the Cowboys hoped he would be.
The Cowboys are 19-7-2 against the spread ATS in their last 28 home games against a team with a losing road record and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games in November. The Lions are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and 1-6-1 ATS against a team with a losing record.
The Cowboys are riding high with momentum after the Giants game and win for the first time this season at home. Cowboys win by double digits and the word “playoff” starts to become popular in Big D again.
Washington at Tennessee
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The Washington Redskins will be happy to take to the road and face off against the Tennessee Titans this weekend. The latest NFL betting line as posted by Bet Revolution has the Titans listed as seven point home favorites.
The Redskins are off one of the most embarrassing wins in franchise history against the Eagles on Monday Night football. The loss was amplified due to the fact the Skins just rewarded quarterback Donovan McNabb with a big contract prior to the game.
The Titans welcomed wide receiver Randy Moss to the team, but failed to get a victory losing to the injured Miami Dolphins.
In the NFL betting world it is very easy to have a knee jerk reaction to one game and that is what happened with the Redskins woeful performance on MNF. This line is out of whack in favor of the Titans.
The Titans are 17-40 ATS in their last 57 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. The Redskins are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss and 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
The Redskins will rebound from the horrible loss to keep this game close.
Arizona at Kansas City
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The reeling KC Chiefs try to get back on the right track when they host the Arizona Cardinals. The latest NFL betting line as posted by Bet Revolution has the Chiefs listed as eight point home favorites.
The Chiefs were trounced by the Denver Broncos last week and the lead they had in the AF West is evaporating quickly.
Meanwhile for the Cardinals it seems like their season is over as they were beat down at home by the Seattle Seahawks.
This is a perfect example of a toss-up game for me. When Sunday comes around I will not be betting on this game, but since I make a selection on every game, here goes nothing.
If the Chiefs can do one thing right, it’s run the ball. The running game opens up the passing game and since they are facing the 28th rush defenses in the league and have one of the best home field advantages I will lay the points with the Chiefs.
The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog and the Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.
This one could be close to hitting right on the number so buyers beware.
Green Bay at Minnesota
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Mall of America Field
The drama continues in Minnesota as the Vikings host the Green Bay Packers in a battle in the NFC North. The latest NFL betting line as posted by Bet Revolution has the Packers listed as three point road favorites.
The Vikings lost to the Bears and since then, as usual, they have been nothing but trouble. Favre insisted he may need an MRI on his shoulder, head coach Brad Childress, said he knew nothing of it. Wide receiver Sydney Rice is trying to play this weekend or he will have to sit for the rest of the year and Bernard Berrian is mad at the coach for saying he did not play because he got hurt in warm-ups….phew…stay tuned.
The Packers meanwhile are winning and doing it although their core of players has suffered injuries all season long. The Packers won the first meeting but would be happy to sweep the season series against Favre and Company.
Favre needs a reason to play, because the Vikings have a little shot of making the post season, and the Packers will give him the motivation to play well. This series is always a close one as the underdog is 17-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last 23 meetings. The Vikings are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and the Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
I may regret it, but I am going with the home divisional dog to get the outright win.
Houston at NY Jets
Leon Halip/Getty Images
New Meadowlands Stadium
The Houston Texans travel to the East Coast to take on the NY Jets and try to put last week’s painful loss behind them. The latest NFL betting line as posted by Bet Revolution has the Jets listed as seven point home favorites.
After coming from behind to tie the game, the Texans lost on a last minute Hail Mary that may have essentially ended their post season chances. Things got worse when quarterback Matt Schaub was rushed to the hospital with a knee injury.
The Jets on the other hand are playing some great football and coming home after winning two difficult road games, the last one in overtime.
The Jets are 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win. The Texans are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game and 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
The Texans are in a bad place right now and I can’t back them with a suspect defense and a question mark at quarterback.
I hate to take another favorite and the Jets, but the numbers say it’s the right play.
Jets -7 (Get this early)
Oakland at Pittsburgh
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The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Oakland Raiders as they try to rebound from an ugly loss to the Patriots. The latest NFL betting line as posted by Bet Revolution has the Steelers listed as seven point home favorites.
The Steelers lost last week due to the precision passing of Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. The Patriots pass heavy offense was able to move the ball against the tough Steelers defense that refused to blitz and seemed out of sorts for most of the game.
The Raiders are making strides in the AFC West and upset Pittsburgh last year, but now for the Steelers it’s time for payback.
The Steelers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
The Steelers lose against the pass and the Raiders area run oriented team. I will lay the points with the home team rebounding off a tough loss.
Baltimore at Carolina
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Bank of America Stadium
The Ravens had extra time to prepare as they lost to Atlanta last Thursday night, while the Panthers lost on the road at Tampa Bay.
The Panthers have no choice but to mix in young talent as they are officially in a rebuilding year and have injuries in key positions. For as bad as they have been this year it is interesting to note that the Panthers ranks 14th in overall defense in the NFL. The one positive in backing the Panthers is that they never seem to give up against any team.
The Ravens are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite and 0-4 ATS against a team with a losing record which tells me they don’t get up for games like this. That was solidified earlier this year when they almost lost to the Buffalo Bills.
The Panthers are 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 7.5 to 14 points and will keep this game within the number.
Cleveland at Jacksonville
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The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Cleveland Browns this weekend, as they are riding high off an improbable win. The latest NFL betting line as posted by Bet Revolution has the Jaguars listed as 1.5 point home favorites.
As mentioned before the Jaguars won their last game with a Hail Mary on the last play of the game. That kind of win will stick with a team and motivate them throughout the season.
The Browns on the other hand, lost a tough game to the Jets that they could have won and will be hard pressed to get excited for this game. The Jets finished a set of games against the New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints and the New York Jets, going to Jacksonville is a letdown.
The Browns are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after a loss against the spread. The Jags have me believing once again and they win and cover the small number.
Tampa Bay at San Francisco
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The revamped San Francisco 49ers host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they continue their charge to a shot at the division title. The latest NFL betting line as posted by Bet Revolution has the 49ers listed as three point home favorites.
The 49ers were written off as a team that had a shot at the playoffs until Troy Smith took over at quarterback. Since then the 49ers are winning and after a win against the Rams, they are still alive in the hunt for a division title.
The Buccaneers are another surprise team in the NFL and are putting together a solid season as they pile up wins. Josh Freeman is growing as a quarterback and the youth movement is paying off in Tampa.
The Buccaneers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a win of more than 14 points and the 49ers are 10-3-2 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Troy Smith has given the 49ers a new outlook on the season and now every win is a must win for this team.
Seattle at New Orleans
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The New Orleans Saints will take on the Seattle Seahawks this week and the Saints should have another weapon back on the field. The latest NFL betting line as posted by Bet Revolution has the Saints listed as 11.5 point home favorites.
It was announced that the Saints will have running back Reggie Bush back in the game this week after coming off a bye. The Saints need Bush as an extra weapon on offense and it will take some time for Bush to get back into football shape.
The Seahawks are a different team this year and are learning how to win on the road. They hammered the Arizona Cardinals last week and earlier in the year beat the Chicago Bears. This true road test will show if they are ready for a top tier team in the NFL.
The Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 against the NFC.
The Saints are not getting the turnovers they got last year with an aggressive defense and the birds will keep this close.
Atlanta at St. Louis
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Edward Jones Dome
The Rams lost a overtime game against the 49ers but have still looked impressive this year as the race to a title in the NFC West.
The Falcons beat the Ravens in impressive fashion on Thursday Night football, but are a much different team on the road. They will have to be ready to take on a Rams team that plays well at home in the dome.
Many people would be surprised to find out the Rams are No. 12 overall in total defense in the NFL. The ability to play defense and move the ball with rookie QB Sam Bradford make them a deadly underdog play at home.
The Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on turf and Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
Indianapolis at New England
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Tom Brady looks to extend his home winning streak when the New England Patriots hos the Indianapolis Colts this weekend. The latest NFL betting line as posted by Bet Revolution has the Patriots listed as 3.5 point home favorites.
The Patriots skewered the Steelers in the last outing as Brady was at his best, slicing and dicing the Pittsburgh secondary.
The Colts are winning ballgames despite the injuries to the offensive weapons that fit into Peyton manning’s arsenal.
The Patriots are in trouble in this game. The Colts run a defense that pressures the quarterback, something the Steelers did not do, and this is the best way to get Brady out of rhythm. Manning on the other hand can take down a Patriots defense that is susceptible to the talented wide receiver.
Reggie Wayne is still around and there is not corner back that will be able to cover him in this game. The Colts are 9-1-2 ATS against a team with a winning record, 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 road games, and 18-7-3 ATS in their last 28 games following a win. The underdog is 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 meetings and the Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
NY Giants at Philadelphia
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
Lincoln Financial Field
The NY Giants will take on the explosive Mr. Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night football. The latest NFL betting line as posted by Bet Revolution has the Eagles listed as three point home favorites.
The Eagles or more specifically Michael Vick is off the best game of his career, when the Eagles stomped the Redskins. Because of his performance on Monday Night Football, Vick was asked to send his jersey to the Hall Of Fame. That will be a tough act to follow.
The Giants got embarrassed against the Cowboys and will be out for vengeance. This game turns into a battle for the NFC East top spot and the league’s best defense will be focusing on Michael Vick.
The Giants are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0 and 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS against a team with a winning record and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite.
The Giants defense contains Vick and wins the game.
Denver at San Diego
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The San Diego Chargers host the Denver Broncos as they make another late season run for the AFC West. The latest NFL betting line as posted by Bet Revolution has the Chargers listed as ten point home favorites.
The Chargers had a bye week and the Broncos helped them out by hammering the Kansas City Chiefs. Now the Chargers have to take care of business to advance in the AFC West by beating the Broncos.
When the Broncos beat the Chiefs it was arguably the best game of the season and it will be tough to repeat that performance against a rested Chargers team. The Broncos have been known to struggle after a good game as they are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
The Chargers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 and they cover this big number with a huge game from Phillip Rivers.
Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews and predictions. Feel free to contact Matt at email@example.com.
Other NFL Articles For Week 11
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Monday Night Football Preview and Pick