2010 NFL Week 11 Picks and Predictions

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2010 NFL Week 11 Picks and Predictions
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Each Tuesday morning, Whatifsports.com's NFL simulation engine will provide you with predictions, box scores and statistics for every NFL game that week. The NFL simulation engine generates detailed information including the home team's chances of winning (Home Win Percent), average score and comprehensive box score link. If you want to share your new found NFL knowledge with friends and family, make sure to check out our NFL Widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or click on the social networking share bar located at the top and bottom of the article.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of NFL games simulated are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth chart and statistically based player ranking. Roster modifications have been made for injuries and suspensions and those players are not part of their team's game simulation.

To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating some games on Thursdays throughout the 2010 NFL season.

Check out our 2010 NFL Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy week-to-week and find Locks and Upsets of the Week.

Game of the Week: Colts at Patriots

New England and Indianapolis seem to be the two franchises impervious to NFL parity. In the past decade, the Patriots and Colts have combined for 227 wins and have represented the AFC six times in the Super Bowl. Quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are widely considered the two best signal callers in the league, and Bill Belichick and Bill Polian are second to none in evaluating talent.

It's in this regard that the almost-yearly New England and Indianapolis battles have become the NFL's greatest non-divisional rivalry of the 21st century. In their last ten meetings, the squads have split the series 5-5, although Indianapolis has won five of the past six contests (including the 2006 AFC Championship).

The Pats and Colts come into this year's skirmish will similar backdrops in 2010. Each squad avenged disappointing performances in Week 9 by securing victories in Week 10. Both lead their respective divisions (7-2 Pats are tied with New York in the East and the 6-3 Colts hold a one game advantage over Tennessee in the South) despite multiple injury and roster alterations. And the two are uncharacteristically awful on defense this season (Indianapolis is 29th in rushing while New England is 30th in passing).

For Indianapolis, the offensive equation is the same as it's been the entire Manning Era: attack through the air. Yet even by Manning's enormously high standards, the 2010 campaign has been impressive. It's not that the former Tennessee Volunteer is posting ridiculous passing figures, but how. Manning has thrown for 2,663 yards and 16 touchdowns despite the prolonged absences of Joseph Addai, security blanket Dallas Clark and wideouts Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez. Put it this way: only Manning could make Jacob Tamme a fantasy commodity.

Of course, Tom Brady hasn't exactly been provided a stable of stars to work with either. After jettisoning noted discontent Randy Moss, Brady and the Pats returned to their aerial assault strategy during their Super Bowl days: mainly, to spread the ball around to multiple receivers. And the recipients of Brady's targets? The recently re-acquired Deion Branch, second-year WR Brandon Tate, rookie tight-ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, and practice squad-signee Danny Woodhead. Let's just say these wideouts won't be referred to as a Murderer's Row anytime soon. Granted, former All-Pro Wes Welker has been effective as of late, but the lingering effects of the receiver's injury are still prominent.

As mentioned, both teams have struggled on defense. Although New England and Indianapolis tend to favor a "bend-but-don't-break" philosophy, injuries can be attributed to their pedestrian performance on D. The Colts have been without leader Bob Sanders and have lost safety Melvin Bullet for the season, while New England has been making due without the services of defensive clog Ty Warren and cornerback Leigh Bodden.

So who wins this clash of the AFC's elite? According to the WhatIfSports NFL simulation engine, the Colts win 57.5-percent of the time, by an average score of 22-20.

NFL Week 11
Matchup Win% Avg Score
Denver Broncos 8.2 19 Boxscore
@ San Diego Chargers 91.8 35 Simulate Game
Washington Redskins 19.4 19 Boxscore
@ Tennessee Titans 80.6 30 Simulate Game
Arizona Cardinals 19.5 17 Boxscore
@ Kansas City Chiefs 80.5 28 Simulate Game
Seattle Seahawks 27.1 15 Boxscore
@ New Orleans Saints 72.9 22 Simulate Game
Buffalo Bills 28.6 14 Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bengals 71.4 20 Simulate Game
Houston Texans 32.8 18 Boxscore
@ New York Jets 67.2 24 Simulate Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33.7 19 Boxscore
@ San Francisco 49ers 66.3 23 Simulate Game
Oakland Raiders 36.2 18 Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 63.8 22 Simulate Game
New York Giants 39.2 17 Boxscore
@ Philadelphia Eagles 60.8 21 Simulate Game
Detroit Lions 41.3 18 Boxscore
@ Dallas Cowboys 58.7 21 Simulate Game
Green Bay Packers 51.4 21 Boxscore
@ Minnesota Vikings 48.6 20 Simulate Game
Indianapolis Colts 57.5 22 Boxscore
@ New England Patriots 42.5 20 Simulate Game
Cleveland Browns 62.4 22 Boxscore
@ Jacksonville Jaguars 37.6 19 Simulate Game
Atlanta Falcons 63.5 21 Boxscore
@ St. Louis Rams 36.5 17 Simulate Game
Baltimore Ravens 68.7 22 Boxscore
@ Carolina Panthers 31.3 16 Simulate Game
Chicago Bears 75.8 22 Boxscore
@ Miami Dolphins 24.2 14 Simulate Game
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