On July 31st, the non-waiver trade deadline for Major League Baseball, the hottest story of the day was the trade of Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers. Part of a three-team deal, the Sox gave up the future Hall of Fame slugger, Brandon Moss, and Craig Hansen, plus some cash, and in return received Jason Bay from the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Immediate reactions were mixed. Ramirez’s comments to the press and intentional slacking had many Boston fans ready for the split.
Some thought the Sox gave up too much, with Moss and Hansen being two of their most talked-about prospects. Some were optimistic about Bay, viewing him as a talented player bogged down in a perennially weak franchise. So, with just about a month past, how has the Manny-for-Bay trade worked out?
In evaluating anything in baseball these days, you need to be thinking with both halves of the brain. There is the Sabremetric side, where it’s all about the numbers. There is also the old-school side, which deals in realities that can’t be quantified, such as morale, momentum, and luck.
From the statistical perspective, the performances of Bay and Ramirez are similar, with the slight edge going to Manny. Ramirez has two more homers, higher batting average and OPS+, and three less K’s than Bay. Bay has more steals, less GIDP , more triples, more RBI, and two more at-bats.
- B/R Ticket Guide
Defensively, neither has made any notable guffaws, but the general consensus is that Bay has the significant edge over Manny in left field.
On the other hand, Boston has gone 16–7 since Bay hit town, holding steady at 3.5 games behind the Rays for the AL East and a couple game ahead of Minnesota for the wild card.
What’s more, all this was accomplished without Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew, and with missed starts by Beckett and Wakefield.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers have gone 11–14 since the trade, including a 2–11 stretch since Aug. 16. They have fallen further behind the Diamondbacks in the weak NL West.
Perhaps most importantly, while Ramirez is hamming it up for the press in L.A., actually running to first base and even stealing a base (a move that surprised no one more than Manny himself), he has been behaving rather well.
On the other coast, the Red Sox locker room is seemingly free of slap fights between players, assaults on aging road managers, and on the field, there hasn’t been even one intentional strikeout since Bay replaced Manny.
When asked, Sox players and manager, Terry Francona, minimized the effect that Manny’s nonsense had on things, but it is clear to even the casual observer that things are happier in Beantown.
After this season ends, Manny Ramirez becomes a free agent. The $25 million that he seeks may or may not come his way. Most agree that Manny is no longer worth quite that much, but if there is any truism in baseball, it’s that the money flies around. The Red Sox now have Bay’s contract and will most likely be paying the remaining $7.5 million for its last year, 2009.
Though the Red Sox sacrificed more than many thought that they should have, it’s hard to deny that they have gotten the better end of the deal, at least when compared to L.A.
For the other franchise in the trade, the Pirates, only time will tell what if any role the biggest deal of 2008 plays in their future.
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3 months ago
The oft overlooked fallout has been Jeff Kent's crazy jump in numbers since Manny arrived and how it still hasn't helped the Dodgers win.
Perhaps Bay hasn't added much more than Manny has but unfortunately the clubhouse never shows up in the stats.
Nice piece of work.
3 months ago
The imporant stat regarding Jason Bay is: 24 RBIs in 23 games. That's all you need to know.
3 months ago
Let's see how long this honeymoon in LA lasts for Manny. Maybe he'll be on his best behavior for the rest of the year to help secure a juicy contract, but I wonder if he really can control himself.
3 months ago
Since Manny isn't a closer, he does not fill the Dodgers largest need. The offense really clicked for about a week and now has returned to it's season long slumber.
Kent has been a monster in front of Manny, but no one has been able to consistently provide cover behind Ramirez. His strike outs come mostly from pressing and trying to provide the power for which he was acquired. Still, his number are far from shabby.
Bay was an inspired addition for Boston. Being in the Pitt kept him out of the limelight. I can see him carving out many good years in a Red Sox uniform. Meanwhile JD Drew going on the DL is far from surprising.
The partnership of Ortiz and Bay will have a different dynamic, but is a stock I would buy.
Ramirez will leave after the season and the Dodgers will net a couple of draft picks. That value will not be known for at least 5 years.
from 3 months ago
Great, great analysis J.C.
from 3 months ago
Thank you sir, you are a gentleman and a scholar.
from 3 months ago
Youk has stepped up rather nicely to fill Manny's spot in the order and Jason Bay certainly plays better when he doesn't have to carry a team.
With a number of teams in the AL East needing outfield help in the off season having Bay & his stats already locked up for 2009 for cheap money is looking like a great bonus.
I hope the Sox use their "Manny Money" and go after CC Sabathia. Beckett, CC, Daisuke, Lester, Masterson for 2009...
Excuse me I need to change my shorts.
3 months ago
Well the Dodgers just got smashed by the Nationals 11-2. Manny hit a 2-run home run but they just got swept by the nationals. Enough said about which team is faring better.
3 months ago
You raise a tough question. Like you said, it goes beyond the numbers.
I've been quite impressed with how Bay has done in his first month playing in a pennant race. Manny is doing what he can in LA, but just doesn't have enough serious hitters around him to maximize his production.
The question will have to be asked again in another month though, when we know whether both teams will be playing in the postseason.
3 months ago
"Though the Red Sox sacrificed more than many thought that they should have, it’s hard to deny that they have gotten the better end of the deal, at least when compared to L.A."
This makes no sense. The Red Sox are paying Manny to play for the Dodgers. The Sox give up 7 million, Manny's Bat, Moss and Hansen. For what? To limp into the playoffs where they will be eliminated in the Division Series.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers get 2 months of Manny at the plate, fans in the stands, loads of No. 99 merchandise sales. Are they going to make the playoffs, No. But that has nothing to do with Manny.
The Dodgers are clearly the winners. They aren't giving, they're getting.
from 3 months ago
First, you're totally ignores the detriment that Manny was causing, especially the intentional dogging. It also ignores the idea that Bay is doing as well as Manny, and that's the Manny who is now trying to play. Bay is outperforming the Manny that was playing in Boston this year by a good margin.
Secondly, The Red Sox sell out every single game. They are not hurting for fans, they didn't need Manny for that. They also need no help selling merchandise.
Yes, they gave up Moss and Hansen, which is a shame, but they have an exceptional farm system. There's more where they came from.
If they are eliminated in the division series, it will because they draw the Angels, perhaps the best team in the majors. Having given up Manny won't be the reason.
Finally, if Manny doesn't give the Dodgers enough to get them to the post season, then they either lose him or pay him @20 million plus to stay, assuring they get no other major pieces. So how have they gotten the better end?
3 months ago
It's sad, but I agree with Bo. Red Sox are still paying Manny to play, just not for us.
It's criminal what Manny did.
I am happy with Jason Bay, though. Theo did find a decent replacement.
We'll see how far it takes us.
3 months ago
Don, I never said anything about the Red Sox hurting at the box office, or have problems selling merchandise. It's quite the opposite. I was talking about the Dodgers ticket and merchandise sales. Adding Manny to the Dodgers has helped that club sell alot of tickets and alot of merchandise for sure. Not only that, people aren't leaving the games as early. The longer they stay the more they spend.
The Red Sox do have an exceptional farm system. However, anytime a team parts with a player of Manny's caliber, you expect to get one of two things, pitching or prospects. Not only did they get neither they gave away prospects. To top it off, they are paying Manny to play in LA. This deal is even getting a laugh out of the Texas Rangers front office, for sure.
The Angels are the best team in the majors and the Red Sox, all year, with or without Manny have been far from the best team in the majors. Because they don't have the pitching, the most important element to winning in the post season. Instead of worrying about Manny Ramirez, they should've addressed their pitching woes.
Many people say that the Red Sox had to trade Manny Ramirez, they HAD to do it. That is ridiculous. It makes no sense when you tune out the insane media hype and look at the facts.
People say Manny is intentionally dogging it, why? cause Buster Olney points out it take Manny 5.9 seconds to first on a ground ball? Ridiculous, not only is this nothing new, it's done by tons of guys in the majors. Get out your stopwatches people, seriously.
People say Manny was faking injuries and sitting out games. He missed 2 games in July. It's always a big deal when Manny doesn't play, why? Every other Major leaguer sits out games and no questions are asked.
People say he intentionally took 3 strikes from Mariano Rivera. Please. In his career vs Rivera, Manny has a .211 batting average and he has struck out 12 times in 38 At-Bats. So once every 4 times he faces him, Manny strikes out. Give me a break
People say he had to go, he was a clubhouse cancer. All those comments to the media...e.g. "The Red Sox don't deserve a player like me..." Well, those are responses to very calculated comments that the Red Sox made to Manny through the media. Manny's comments were very unprofessional, however, why doesn't someone call out the Red Sox. They were very unprofessional with the statements they made through the media. And if anything, they should be the most professional out of the 2 parties.
People say the Red Sox had to trade Manny because they don't know if he'd play the rest of the year. That is the dumbest thing I've heard. So let me get this straight, Manny, the guy that everyone says is all about himself, mr. greedy. He is not going to play in the last 2 months of his contract year. Ok
People say that Manny's success in LA is evidence he was dogging it in Boston. Please. Perhaps people have spent too much time reading about the Manny Ramirez J-walking to notice that in July, Manny hit .347 with an on-base of .473, slugging of .587 and an on-base slugging percentage of 1.060. He continued his hot hitting in LA, in the NL where pitching isn't as tough as it is in the American Leauge. On top of that, a number of his NL homeruns were off of guys he has really great numbers off of.
I really see no change in Manny other than environment.
So if the Red Sox kept or traded Manny, the result is the same. They are probably making the playoffs but certainly not winning the World Series. Or even getting to it. All because of their lack of pitching
And the Dodgers get Manny for free. The probably won't even make the playoffs, but it'll be exciting race for their fans. They've already sold tons more tickets and junk. So they get something for nothing.
from 3 months ago
Allow me to respond to several of your thoughts...
My point about the Sox box office and merchandise was that they did not have those incentives to put up with Manny's negatives. I am fully aware what you were talking about.
Manny was only in the midst of a contract year if the Sox did not pick up the club options. Manny, playing hard in Boston, was worth $10 million next year, far less than Manny wants.
Dogging is done by lot's of guys in the majors? So what is your point? It sucks when anyone does it. However, guys like Barry Bonds did it (most recently) on a team that was nowhere near the post season. The Red Sox are in a close race. Also, it doesn't seem to be taking Manny 5.9 seconds to get to first now, environment or whatever.
Manny's on-field performance was only a small part of the whole picture. Decking staff, fighting in the dugout, and talking smack to reporters was also a part of it. What were the inappropriate comments the front office made? Let's not forget that he has a history of faked injuries to go along with his other quirkiness. The things that forced the issue this season not new things, let alone imagined or made up by fans to justify his departure.
Yes, Manny's career average against Rivera is less than against most other pitchers. Another thing of note about Manny is that he' s not known for low pitch AB's. One of his talents has always been working the count. In that AB, he never swung. It wasn't meant to be subtle. This is only my opinion, so I suppose we'll have to agree to disagree.
3 months ago
"Manny, playing hard in Boston, was worth $10 million next year, far less than Manny wants."
I don't understand what you mean. If they picked up the option it would be for $20 mill. If they don't pick up the option, he's a free agent and Manny would want his numbers to be the best they coud be so he'd get a best deal he could get. Either way, he is motivated to succeed.
"Dogging is done by lot's of guys in the majors? So what is your point? It sucks when anyone does it."
My point is that it's not uncommon. Media types made a point of it in Manny's case. Like it was a smoking gun that Manny was trying to doom the Red Sox. The whole thing is silly. He can hustle all the way, he's still big and slow and not gonna beat those ground balls out. I've seen Manny dog it, I've seen him hustle. I can say the same for alot of players. I can say the same for David Ortiz. No one writes an article about it though. Again, Don, I've watched the Dodger games now that Manny's on the team, he is no different than when he was on the Sox. Sometimes he's running hard, sometimes he's not.
He has a history of faking injuries? Says who, the doctors at Dirt Dogs? I've read and heard it said so many times. Yet no one ever has anything to back it up. Tell me, what is the smoking gun? Give me something. I once read someone post on a message board that they knew Manny was faking because he was smiling and laughing in the dugout. A good example of the logic people have when it comes to Manny Ramirez. Are you going to tell me, he is faking because he had a clean MRI? I've had several clean MRIs and tests that didn't explain pain in my shoulder. That is meaningless. Give me one example of were he is faking and you have something to prove it. It's just an opinion, not a fact.
The Red Sox were unprofessional the minute John Henry commented about Manny's quote at the All-Star break. Manny told Rob Bradford "I want to know what's my situation. I want no more [expletive] where they tell you one thing and behind your back they do another thing. I think I've earned that respect, for a team to sit down with me and tell me this is what we want, this is what we want to do."
Rather than dealing with this in a professional way, John Henry spoke to Manny through the media.
"I find remarks that we have been anything other than completely straightforward to be personally offensive. Manny has been a crucial part of two world championships. I do not believe we would have won either without him. He has never played a more important role than he has thus far this year."
The fact that he chose to make this comment to media is very suspect. It means, he wants people outside the Red Sox to know he is not happy.
And then it continued...Although, the Red Sox told Manny that they would not discuss his contract until after the season was over. Theo tells Fox Sports that they would trade him but can't because of his 10-5 status, and made a point to tell Fox to say this during the Fox saturday baseball broadcast. That is not professional, no way.
Manny's reponses to those comments did him no favors, but they rang true. It was unprofessional of him to say some of things he said, but it's understandable. It's a personal thing for him, he feels like a big piece of the puzzle and would like to be treated like that.
What's the Red Sox excuse for speaking through the media. They are an organization of successful professionals. They know full well the media storm those comments would create.
"Another thing of note about Manny is that he' s not known for low pitch AB's. One of his talents has always been working the count."
Right, and you would know that working the count and being a good 2-strike hitter, Manny would be patient at the plate, not panic and swing at something out of zone. He didn't think Rivera was gonna throw him anything. Most pitchers waste a few when they get Manny 0-2, it's not an uncommon thing for Manny go down 0-2 and work the count back up to 3-2, by taking pitches.
I will definitely agree to disagree on this subject.
3 months ago
haha, this is really a simple discussion. I have been a Redsox fan all my life. I inherited it from my father who inherited it from his father. It has been painful for me. They have always been a great team but they were always playing second fiddle to a better, richer, smarter organization. They have had the greatest players on their roster. It was always painful to see them make the same mistake every year though. They always seemed to be playing for a future shot at it. Then, Theo came along and decided to play for today. He compiled a team of players that to me were really not redsox. He got rid of Nomar! What the hell, I thought, you cannot get rid of Nomar ~ he's Mr. Baseball. But, Theo proved me wrong and this group of misfits somehow won a world series... and then another! Holy shit, what's going on in Boston! Then I read and to some extent started to believe that Boston had just adopted the Yankee mentality of "hey if you can't beat 'em buy 'em". Well, along comes Theo again...trading away the best hitter in baseball because of his attitude. And making a crappy deal on the surface of it. But, whatdaya know... Boston is not only going to the playoffs but making a run at the division title. We lost the greatest hitter in baseball and two of the greatest prospects for a shot at another ring! Way to go Theo! Play for today, for now! Let's win this thing again. I love this team because I love this game. Basically, Theo traded one player for a whole team. I couldn't be happier!
from 3 months ago
I agree with alot of what your saying. But I still think the deal was dumb. This team just doesn't have the pitching to win it all.
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