NFL Lines: How to Bet on Week 10 Games
It's taken me a while this NFL season to get on a roll with betting. Home-field advantage is completely irrelevant, save a few stadiums (Qwest Field, Lambeau Field and the Georgia Dome) and underdogs have been hitting higher at a higher clip than usual.
Unlike other sports, the NFL shows once again why it is the king of parity and makes betting a little bit harder every year.
With injuries finally shaking out in different directions for a few teams, we are finally able to grasp hold of the trends.
After missing only one pick last week, it's time to go public.
And it's also time for me to flop horribly and have every single one laugh at me. So here we go!
Cincinatti at Indianapolis (-7)
Peyton Manning usually comes out extra motivated after a loss and despite the loss of weapons and general no-names catching the ball for him inside the numbers, Manning is going to have a huge day and treat the Bengals' secondary like a Thanksgiving turkey.
Carson Palmer is absolutely horrendous when it matters, but his garbage time numbers are the best in the NFL. I feel confident that the Colts are going to win by at least ten no matter what.
Definitely take the Colts: 34-20
Houston at Jacksonville (-1.5)
Both of these teams are schizophrenic and I really have no idea who to pick here. I am taking the Gilbert Arenas method and flipping a coin ten times.
Jags won 6-4, so let's multiply that by four just because.
Jags win 24-16.
Tennessee at Miami
This one is really simple. It's a pick and the Dolphins are at home, so logic dictates that you take the home team. The Dolphins have yet to win at home, and the Titans have just gotten Randy Moss, so that leads me to pick the Titans.
The Titans don't have Kenny Britt, and I think the addition of Al Harris to the Dolphins' secondary is really going to help, but their run defense is middle of the pack.
Screw it, Dolphins are due for a home win.
Dolphins take it 17-14.
Minnesota (-1) at Chicago
Brett Favre has no idea if the Vikings are going to make the playoffs and after a thrilling victory over a team with no QB the week before, they have to be on cloud two.
The Vikings have some personal pride and are going to give it their all. Chicago isn't that great of a team, despite their 5-3 record. Jay Cutler spends more time on his back than Lexus Locklear, and is good for a few picks a game. So it's nice to know he's back to his old self.
Vikings should win this game by a score of 34-23.
Detroit at Buffalo (-2)
I am going to watch this game up until the Maine vs. Maryland game hits the TV. I think this is going to be the most competitive and fun game of the week.
Buffalo is the best 0-8 team in the history of the NFL and the Lions are very scrappy and fight all the way until the end. I am predicting a shoot-out.
And since the University of Maryland won on Saturday and Harvard lost its last game, I have to go with the Terp on this one.
Detroit beats Buffalo in OT, 34-31.
NY Jets (-3) at Cleveland
Cleveland has been rolling lately, and its defense has been ever so opportunistic. The Jets have struggled a bit and haven't quite been themselves the past couple of weeks. Cleveland loves to pound the ball, and the Jets like to stop the run.
Does McCoy do enough to win, and does Sanchez keep errors to a minimum?
I'm going to take the Jets by six, 16-10.
Carolina at Tampa Bay (-7)
John Fox worries about QBs, while Raheem Morris worries about winning by 24 plus.
Bucs win easy, 38-13.
Kansas City (-1) at Denver
Denver really sucks. I mean like really sucks, and no one should ever bet on them, even at home.
KC wins 27-7.
St. Louis at San Francisco (-5.5)
This is going to be a huge test for Samuel L. Bradford and the Rams. The 49ers have been playing a bit better lately, but the Rams just seem to be cohesive enough to go on the road to pull this one out. I'd bet on the Rams to beat the spread, but pick San Fransisco to win.
49ers in a squeaker, 23-21.
Seattle at Arizona (-3)
My bias is going to come out here and it's going to kill me. I hate the Seahawks, and they can't seem to win in Arizona's new stadium. The Seahawks couldn't stop the Giants from doing anything they wanted and the Cards did a decent job against the Vikings for 57 minutes. The Seahawks are slightly worse than the Vikings.
Cardinals win 33-10.
Dallas at NY Giants (-13.5)
Dallas is one of the most pathetic teams I've ever seen. The Cowboys could be at home to Buffalo or Carolina and lose by 20 points. So going on the road against a Giants team that is red hot is not going to be a great start for the Jason Garrett Era.
Giants win ∞-13.
Yes, that's an infinity symbol.
New England at Pittsburgh (-4.5)
New England is masquerading as a good team, and Pittsburgh is a good team. Tom Brady likes to win (a lot) at Heinz Field. The Steelers literally have no offensive line, and I think the Pats are going to be constructing condos around Ben Roethlisberger.
I still like the Steelers at home by a touchdown, 27-20.
Philadelphia (-3) at Washington
Last time McNabb was benched, he played some of the best football of his career.
But that's not going to happen again.
McNabb is washed up, and we'll probably get to see the Rex Grossman era begin in Washington before anyone ever (or never) wanted.
Eagles roll, 37-13.