NFL Picks: Atlanta Falcons Slight Favorites Over Baltimore Ravens
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The 6-2 Baltimore Ravens meet the 6-2 Atlanta Falcons in the Week 10 opener on Thursday night. Both the Ravens and the Falcons will be looking to build on impressive victories last week.
Led by Ray Rice’s 180 yards of offense, the Ravens crushed Miami, 26-10. Meanwhile, Atlanta defeated division rival Tampa Bay, 27-21, in a game that shouldn’t have been as close as it was.
NFL odds makers are expecting a great Thursday night contest, listing the Falcons as a slim 1.5-point favorite with the total set at 43.5.
The only way to beat Atlanta is to slow down its running game. The Falcons are a perfect 6-0 when they rush for 98 or more yards in a game this season. The Falcons were held to 58 yards rushing in a season-opening loss to Pittsburgh, and 65 rushing yards in a mid-October loss to Philadelphia.
Baltimore has been one of the premier defensive teams in the NFL over the last decade, but it hasn’t been as stout against the run as we are used to seeing. In fact, the Ravens are allowing 104.8 rushing yards per game. However, Baltimore may have gotten some things straightened out during its bye week.
The Ravens held Miami to just 73 yards on the ground in last week’s win, but they’re up against a different animal this week. Led by Michael Turner, the Falcons rank sixth in the league in rushing offense, averaging 136.5 rushing yards per game.
Turner currently ranks seventh in the NFL with 694 rushing yards.
Atlanta is an impressive 17-3 on its home field since the beginning of the 2008 season, including a perfect 4-0 this season. In other words, you better have good reason to go against Atlanta when it’s playing at home.
While Atlanta will look to run on Baltimore, the Ravens will likely take to the air against Atlanta. After all, the Falcons rank 26th in the league in pass defense, surrendering 250.5 yards per game through the air.
Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco enters Thursday’s contest on fire. He has thrown 11 touchdown strikes and only one interception in his last six games.
He completed 20 of 27 passes for 266 yards and two scores last week, producing a season-best passer rating of 129.6.
Since his forgettable four-interception performance against Cincinnati, Flacco has completed 66.1 percent of his passes for 1,515 yards with a passer rating of 108.6.
If the Falcons slow down Ray Rice, they’ll be able to slow down Flacco. Rice caught seven passes for 97 yards against Miami. Flacco loves to dump the ball off to Rice to let him run after the catch. Atlanta must do a better job than Miami of knowing where Rice is on the field at all times.
It is certainly worth noting that Baltimore is an impressive 8-1 against the spread as a road underdog of three points or less since the beginning of the 2008 season. Baltimore is winning these games by an average score of 24.4 to 19.8.
Bet with confidence in Week 10 by playing the same NFL picks as world champion handicapper Jimmy Boyd!
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