The matchup between the Redskins (7-7) and Vikings (8-6) is the only game Sunday featuring two teams that still have a shot at the playoffs.
If the Vikings win, they eliminate the Redskins (and Carolina) from postseason play, making their path to the playoffs much easier. Also, if the Saints lose to Philly earlier Sunday, the Vikings would clinch a playoff spot with a victory. If the Redskins win, both teams still have a shot, but the Redskins would have the upper hand.
The Redskins are coming off of two straight wins over the Bears in RFK and the Giants in the wind-swept Meadowlands last Sunday night. Prior to their current winning streak they had lost four straight against Buffalo, at Tampa Bay, at Dallas, and against Philly—a pretty tough string of games by any measure. The difference in the last two games has been the heady, mistake-free play of journeyman QB, Todd Collins.
After Jason Campbell went down with an injury against the Bears, Collins came in and sparked the 'Skins to victory with 15 of 20 for 224 yards and two TDs. Against the Giants last week, Collins had a tough time throwing in the swirling winds of the Meadowlands and completed only eight of 25 passes for 166 yards, but he had no interceptions and made big completions when he had to.
Wind won't be a problem for Collins this week since the game is in the Metrodome. But, noise will be a problem as the Metrodome—one of the louder stadiums in the league—will be filled with fans fired up with the playoffs on the line.
Collins was with the Chiefs when Al Saunders was the offensive coordinator and came to Washington in 2006, the same year Saunders became the offensive coordinator for the Skins. He is a canny QB who knows Saunders' offense as well as any quarterback on the roster.
The Vikings have won five straight. The biggest reason for their turnaround from a train wreck 3-6 start has been the play of starting QB Tavaris Jackson. In his second year, Jackson fought injuries and inconsistency in the first nine games. He missed four of the first nine games this season and in the five he played he completed only 51 of 110 passes for a miserable 44 percent completion rate. In the last five games Jackson has played much more efficiently completing 79 of 112 passes for a completion rate of 70 percent.
The last two Viking opponents—the 49ers and Bears—have focused almost exclusively on stopping the Vikings dominating running game. It hasn't completely worked, but it has put a lot of pressure on Jackson. Against the Bears, there were times he didn't handle it well. Jackson's play will be key in this game.
Offensively the Redskins are a pretty balanced team, ranking 11th in the NFL in rushing yards and 15th in passing yards. The Vikings run defense is by far the best in the league and it's unlikely that the Redskins will get much out of Clinton Portis or Laddell Betts.
That makes the play of Collins the key to the Redskins offense against the Vikings. A lot will depend on how much time Collins gets to pass.
The Vikings have 42 sacks this year, but have lost two defensive ends in the last couple of weeks when Erasmus James was lost for the season to IR, and Ray Edwards was suspended for four games for a positive steroid test. Also, the Redskins are one of the better teams in the league in pass protection, having given up only 24 sacks on the season.
Minnesota is ranked last in the league in pass defense, and if Collins has time to throw, he could be in for a big night. The key for preventing that is getting good pressure on Collins and coming up with an interception or two. The Vikings have a very opportunistic defense and lead the league with eight defensive scores, six of them on interception returns.
When the Vikings have the ball, the Skins can expect a steady diet of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor running it. No one has really stopped the Vikings' running game this year—the Packers are the only team to hold them to less than a hundred yards on the ground, and that was largely because they had a big lead on the Vikings, eventually blowing them out 34-0. Minnesota only ran 15 times that game and averaged 5.1 yards a carry.
In the last two games, the 49ers and Bears have gone to extreme lengths to stop the Vikings runners. The 49ers ran a ton of cornerback blitzes, but their cornerbacks are more physical than the Skins' are. It's not likely Washington would use the same approach. The Bears kept eight or nine men in the box and dared Jackson to beat them. With a safety like LaRon Landry, it's definitely more likely that the Skins would use that approach.
Jackson will again have opportunities to take advantage of the Skins overplaying the run. His ability to do so will go a long way towards deciding this game.
On special teams, the two teams are roughly even, although Viking punter Chris Kluwe has been having a great year and is second in the league with 31 punts inside the opponent's 20 yard line.
One key factor is turnovers. The Vikings are +9 in turnovers for the year, while the Skins are -2 and, as mentioned before, the Vikings lead the league with eight defensive scores.
This is a pretty even matchup between two teams on a roll, but the Vikings are favored by seven on their home field.
If the Redskins can jump out to a lead early they can make things tough on the Vikes, but overall the Vikings defense is too good and too opportunistic to let that happen.
In a tough fought game, the Vikings will win, 24-16.
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