TCU is currently ahead of Boise State in all of the current rankings, despite the fact that the Broncos have more first place votes.
As the season progresses, the Broncos should no doubt be ranked ahead of the Horned Frogs. Not only because Boise beat a more talented TCU team last year, but because the Broncos have done better against the same opponents and have more impressive victories.
TCU's biggest win at the end of the season will be against the Mountain West's second-place team. Everyone argues that the Mountain West and the WAC aren't very strong conferences, and that is why teams in those conferences will never get an automatic BCS bowl bid.
The Mountain West may be better than the WAC, but not by much. And if you look at last year's head-to-head match-up, Boise showed that the WAC champ is better than the MWC champ.
Boise State's biggest win this year could very well be against the ACC Champion Virginia Tech, who will be playing in a BCS bowl game if it continues its hot streak.
It would be hypocritical of the BCS traditionalists and computers to keep TCU ahead of Boise State when the Horned Frogs' best win of the season comes against the second-place team in a non-BCS conference.
Both teams played Wyoming, and both dominated the Cowboys.
TCU hosted Wyoming and won 45-0. The Horned Frogs scored 31 points in the first half and kept their starting quarterback in for a final score in the fourth quarter.
The Cowboys hosted Boise State in Wyoming and the Broncos also dominated them. They scored 34 points in the first half, and Kellen Moore was on the sidelines in the fourth quarter.
Both teams played Oregon State, as well. TCU hosted the Beavers and won by eight points. The Beavers were in the game late, and kept it close.
When Boise State played the Beavers in Idaho, Oregon State was never really in the game. Other than an early punt return, the Broncos dominated them and put the game away early.
Both teams have solid quarterbacks, but Kellen Moore has outperformed Andy Dalton this season. Moore has a better completion percentage and QB rating, and more touchdowns and yards than Dalton. Dalton also has one more interception than Moore.
Some people argue that Moore's stats are better because he has two senior receivers who will surely be drafted into the NFL next year. But that's point exactly—the Broncos have more talent on the field than the Horned Frogs do.
The Broncos also have a better defense and a better head coach than TCU. If you add all of these factors together, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the Broncos are the better team.
Boise State's opponents after eight games have a combined 32-41 record, and its remaining opponents have a combined 21-14 record.
TCU's opponents after 10 games have a combined 44-50 record, and its remaining opponents have a combined 8-10 record.
Both teams have dominated, but the Broncos have been more impressive, and they've been doing it without trying to run up the score late in games.
If both teams win out, they'll have identical records. The Horned Frogs will have beaten two teams while they were ranked and the Broncos will have beaten three teams while they were ranked.
They both beat an Oregon State team that was ranked No. 24. Boise State beat a Virginia Tech team in Maryland when the Hokies were ranked No. 10.
TCU does have a win over a team ranked No. 5 in the BCS, Utah, but Utah is a second-place team in a non-BCS conference.
As the season continues, Virginia Tech will find a way into the top ten if it wins the ACC. Utah may be ranked in the teens when the season ends.
Which team deserves the automatic bid among non-AQ candidates?
How about the team that already showed it can beat the other candidate. How about the team that perhaps for the second straight year has beaten a BCS conference champion.
How about the team that deserves it the most, the Boise State Broncos.
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