In college football, a lot has to roll a team's way over the duration of the season for it to have a chance at playing for a National Title. Not only does a team have to basically win every single game, but other teams need to lose, and its BCS ranking has to be higher than everyone else's.
For the Boise State Broncos, they can have everything go their way and for some reason, they can't seem to find a way into the BCS Championship game. And after the No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs trounced the No. 5 Utah Utes, 47-7 in Salt Lake City, the Broncos' chances look even bleaker now.
Just this past week, TCU leap-frogged Boise in the BCS Rankings to claim the spot behind Auburn and Oregon. Boise bounced back to fourth, and now looks like it may not be able to claw back into it.
All Andy Dalton and company have to do is handle San Diego State at home and then travel to Albuquerque to face the 1-8 New Mexico Lobos. If TCU's remaining schedule doesn't spell undefeated, I don't know what does. With it being highly unlikely that both Auburn and Oregon will lose a game for the rest of the year, it doesn't bode well for Chris Petersen's bunch.
The Broncos have dominated the competition in all aspects of the game. Their overall rankings are in the top five in almost every major category, and they maintain extremely good balance talent-wise across the board. Kellen Moore is an elite quarterback and has some help from guys like RB Doug Martin and flankers Titus Young and Austin Pettis. Combine that with an extremely stingy defense and a brilliant coaching staff, and you have a top flight BCS contender.
Tell that to the computers.
Every year we have the same discussion, and every year it ends pretty much the same way. Two BCS conference teams take a trip to the Championship, and teams like TCU and Boise State are kicked to the curb.
For a while, 2010 looked like it could have been the year for Boise, but after the past two weeks there isn't any way—in my eyes at least—that the Broncos can squeeze into the title game. I can see Auburn slipping up in Tuscaloosa and losing to Nick Saban's crew, but I don't think Oregon will lose to anyone left on their schedule.
The Ducks have to visit California, host Arizona and then have their annual showdown with heated rival Oregon State. All three teams are solid programs with great players, but Chip Kelly's boys are on a whole other level this year, and I honestly can't picture this group losing a game. I don't think Auburn will lose to Alabama—especially after its performance at LSU—so even TCU will probably have to hope for an Auburn loss in the SEC Championship to have any hope for a title shot.
The worst part about this whole situation is that it's completely out of Boise State's control. The Broncos get stuck playing the waiting game, hoping and praying for a couple of teams to bite the dust in front of them. History shows that doesn't happen, and even if it is one of the final two undefeateds remaining, it still may not get into the championship (as we've seen in the past).
It's unfortunate that Virginia Tech had to trip up against James Madison, because that brought its value way down, in turn lowering Boise State's ranking in the computers.
There is a month left in the season and plenty of football left, so anything is possible, but after that impressive victory by the Horned Frogs, it is evident who will be chosen over who for the title bid if it comes down to it, and the Broncos will be holding the short end of the stick when it is all said and done.
I'm not advocating Boise to be in the big game. I'm simply stating why TCU's utter dismantling of the fifth ranked team in the BCS all but shatters Boise's hopes for this season.
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