Breeders' Cup Analysis For Friday

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Breeders' Cup Analysis For Friday
The favorites will fall short on Friday!

The fun begins tomorrow with the hardest race of the Breeders' Cup: the 14-furlong Marathon.  The race is packed with turf specialists and pace setting speed, but I think Giant Oak will come off the pace to beat Prince Will I am, Eldaafer and Alcomo. 

The very nice five-furlong work by Giant Oak on Sunday in 1:00 makes me feel comfortable that this horse is fine after finishing second in the Grade II Hawthorne Gold Cup on October 2nd.

I don't like the morning line favorites Awesome Gem or A.U. Miner, with Calvin Borel to finish in the money.  I wouldn't be shocked to see a huge long shot like Romp finish strong at about 75-1.

Pick:  8/2,4,10/2,4,5,10,11 (this is how I will bet it)

In the Juvenile Fillies Turf race, I like the Irish shipper, Together to pull off a mild upset of Winter Memories.  With this turf race loaded with front runners like Wyomia, Fancy Point and New Normal, I like the stalker to run down the 2:1 favorite Winter Memories in the stretch.

Winter Memories is 2-for-2 in her career, but Together has seven starts, and I like her experience and outside post to help her come from behind.  Don't be shocked if she goes off about 10:1

Pick:  13/7/9,10,4,1 (I will use all for third, but these are the horses I will have extra on)

The Filly and Mare Sprint at seven furlongs is a very interesting race to handicap, but in the end, I decided not to pick Dubai Majesty to win this race.

Dubai Majesty will definitely be a factor in this race, as she's 3-for-6 at Churchill Downs. But because she's 0-for-7 at seven furlongs, I just couldn't pick her to win it all.  However, her last race at Churchill was dominant, as she galloped home in 1:08 for six furlongs, winning a Grade III race.

Rightly So will overcome an outside post position and win this race with Cornelio Velasquez for Anthony Dutrow.  The four-year-old is 3-for-3 at the distance and her bullet work of 47:3 October 30 was super.

I think Champagne d'Oro is another dark horse who showed a lot of promise in running 1:22:2 at Saratoga in early August. 

Pick: 13/12,14,2,7,3

A Z Warrior looks very tough in the 1 1/16 Juvenile race for fillies, but I'm going to pick Awesome Feather to defeat her in a race with a lot of talented, but inexperienced, horses.

A Z Warrior will probably be the heavy favorite at around 2:1, which is why I will include her in my triple wagering. However, I really believe the better value is with Awesome Feather and R Heat Lightning.

Tell a Kelly with Calvin Borel looks live in the 12 position, but I like Delightful Mary a bit more and she's a much better price.

Pick: 4/3,8/3,8,9,12

The 1 3/8 Miles Turf race for Filly and Mares seems to be a three-horse race.  I really like long shot Eclair de Lune from Germany to be in contention in the deep stretch.  I also like Harmonious to be a factor, but Midday has been so good this year in winning 3-of-4, that I have to pick her.

I'm probably going to have a simple $2 triple box of 7,6,2, but I will also have this superfecta bet:

Pick: 2,7/2,6,7/All

The Ladies' Classic will be won by Life At Ten and she should return $10-15, as Blind Luck and Havre de Grace will take all the money.

I know Blind Luck and Havre de Grace both posted career high 105 beyer ratings last time out, but I think both will fall short of catching Todd Pletcher's Life At Ten.

Pick: 1/3,8,11,10/3,8,11,10,9

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