Breeders' Cup Analysis For Friday

Joseph CiracoCorrespondent INovember 4, 2010

The favorites will fall short on Friday!
The favorites will fall short on Friday!

The fun begins tomorrow with the hardest race of the Breeders' Cup: the 14-furlong Marathon.  The race is packed with turf specialists and pace setting speed, but I think Giant Oak will come off the pace to beat Prince Will I am, Eldaafer and Alcomo. 

The very nice five-furlong work by Giant Oak on Sunday in 1:00 makes me feel comfortable that this horse is fine after finishing second in the Grade II Hawthorne Gold Cup on October 2nd.

I don't like the morning line favorites Awesome Gem or A.U. Miner, with Calvin Borel to finish in the money.  I wouldn't be shocked to see a huge long shot like Romp finish strong at about 75-1.

Pick:  8/2,4,10/2,4,5,10,11 (this is how I will bet it)

In the Juvenile Fillies Turf race, I like the Irish shipper, Together to pull off a mild upset of Winter Memories.  With this turf race loaded with front runners like Wyomia, Fancy Point and New Normal, I like the stalker to run down the 2:1 favorite Winter Memories in the stretch.

Winter Memories is 2-for-2 in her career, but Together has seven starts, and I like her experience and outside post to help her come from behind.  Don't be shocked if she goes off about 10:1

Pick:  13/7/9,10,4,1 (I will use all for third, but these are the horses I will have extra on)

The Filly and Mare Sprint at seven furlongs is a very interesting race to handicap, but in the end, I decided not to pick Dubai Majesty to win this race.

Dubai Majesty will definitely be a factor in this race, as she's 3-for-6 at Churchill Downs. But because she's 0-for-7 at seven furlongs, I just couldn't pick her to win it all.  However, her last race at Churchill was dominant, as she galloped home in 1:08 for six furlongs, winning a Grade III race.

Rightly So will overcome an outside post position and win this race with Cornelio Velasquez for Anthony Dutrow.  The four-year-old is 3-for-3 at the distance and her bullet work of 47:3 October 30 was super.

I think Champagne d'Oro is another dark horse who showed a lot of promise in running 1:22:2 at Saratoga in early August. 

Pick: 13/12,14,2,7,3

A Z Warrior looks very tough in the 1 1/16 Juvenile race for fillies, but I'm going to pick Awesome Feather to defeat her in a race with a lot of talented, but inexperienced, horses.

A Z Warrior will probably be the heavy favorite at around 2:1, which is why I will include her in my triple wagering. However, I really believe the better value is with Awesome Feather and R Heat Lightning.

Tell a Kelly with Calvin Borel looks live in the 12 position, but I like Delightful Mary a bit more and she's a much better price.

Pick: 4/3,8/3,8,9,12

The 1 3/8 Miles Turf race for Filly and Mares seems to be a three-horse race.  I really like long shot Eclair de Lune from Germany to be in contention in the deep stretch.  I also like Harmonious to be a factor, but Midday has been so good this year in winning 3-of-4, that I have to pick her.

I'm probably going to have a simple $2 triple box of 7,6,2, but I will also have this superfecta bet:

Pick: 2,7/2,6,7/All

The Ladies' Classic will be won by Life At Ten and she should return $10-15, as Blind Luck and Havre de Grace will take all the money.

I know Blind Luck and Havre de Grace both posted career high 105 beyer ratings last time out, but I think both will fall short of catching Todd Pletcher's Life At Ten.

Pick: 1/3,8,11,10/3,8,11,10,9