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Here is a team that is always hard to predict: always has talent, always starts strong, but seems to find a way to underperform at the end of the season. Michigan State beat Penn State last year when Penn State blew a huge halftime lead. Penn State will look to avenge that loss, and it will help being at home this year.
Several key pieces of the MSU offense have left for the NFL: running back Jehuu Caulcrick, who ran for 872 yards and 21 scores last season; WR Devin Thomas, who accounted for 2,590 all-purpose yards and was drafted in the second round of this year's NFL Draft by the Washington Redskins; and TE Kellen Davis, who had 32 catches for 513 yards and six touchdowns as a senior and was drafted in the fifth round by the Chicago Bears.
This is a lot to replace, but luckily QB Brian Hoyer does return and has a full year of experience under his belt. There are many new names that have impressed the staff during the offseason. If someone can step up on offense, Hoyer should be successful again, as he proved to be a formidable college quarterback.
On the defensive side, MSU is another team that made big plays on defense last year but still gave up 26.6 ppg. They lose several key playmakers this year, leading me to believe that things won't get much better. Penn State lost 35-31 last year, and until the fourth quarter was scoring a lot at will.
With key losses on both sides of the ball, as well as this game being at Penn State this year, I don't see Michigan State pulling off the upset. Penn State remembers what happened last year and avenges that loss with a solid 45-20 victory.
With this analysis, I have predicted Penn State to go 11-1. I also predict a total of 399 points without the bowl game included. Last year they scored 394 points with the bowl game included, so I do expect this offense to be more effective than last year.
I do worry about the Purdue game the most because of the letdown factor. Of course Wisconsin could be a problem as well, being that it is a road game at a site where Penn State does struggle, but the trap game vs. Purdue is my greatest concern. If Penn State does lose more than the one game to Ohio State, I would say these are the two teams I would expect the losses to come from.
9-3 is the worst I see this team going and is the lowest number of victories that I would be "OK" with, although I think this is at the very least a 10-win team.
Of course there is always a chance that somehow the upset in Columbus is pulled off, in which case I will be very happy to be wrong.
There is also the chance of injuries or other crazy things that can throw this all off. Let's hope that does not happen.
With Ohio State being undefeated, the media will be forced to put them in the BCS Championship game again, although very reluctantly after the last two years. I see Ohio State facing a team from the Big 12, probably Big Game Bob and his Sooners.
Oklahoma will be on a mission this year to make up for the last two disappointing ends to their seasons and return a solid team and experience at the quarterback position, which is key in college.
This leaves Penn State at 11-1 and second in the Big Ten, and they will get a Rose Bowl bid to face the Trojans of Southern California. This would match up two of the best defensive lines in the nation and feature two teams with a first year starter on offense.
It is hard to pick against Pete Carroll in bowl games, especially in their own backyard. I would begrudgingly say that the USC defense will lead them to victory over Penn State, although Joe Paterno is a great bowl game coach when he has six weeks to prepare and does have the most bowl wins in history.
I get the sense that this game would be closer than most think right now, but I do not want to show too much bias and say Penn State will win the Rose bowl.
My prediction is 11-2 and a loss in the Rose Bowl to USC, a prediction that forecasts a successful season but also leaves some room for me being wrong in a positive direction, although not that much room indeed.
The next question is, what will Joe do following this 2008 campaign when his contract runs out?
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