Chaser Or Racer: NASCAR's Race To The Chase (Bristol)

Three races remain. Nine drivers will head into NASCAR’s version of the old Roman Coliseum (Bristol Motor Speedway) with a realistic shot at qualifying for this year’s chase.

Michigan’s race last weekend left many predictions high and dry, as drivers who were on the bubble are now relatively safe and vice versa.

I’ve been writing for several weeks now that Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick had the speed to be in the top 12 but neither showed the consistency to do so. Fast forward to last Sunday and both have seemed to have found that consistency and are safely in the top ten at the moment (Biffle seventh and Harvick eighth).

In the meantime Jeff Gordon, who looked safe through the summer, has fallen to ninth in the standings, less than 100 points clear of 13th and 14th place Clint Bowyer and David Ragan (who are tied at 2,709 points).

While Jeff’s struggles have been more a result of bad luck than bad performance, he certainly needs to finish in the top five from now on to keep him in the top 12. If he doesn’t, he could miss out on NASCAR’s playoffs for the second time.

With that, here are the “bubble” drivers and their chances going into the Bristol Bull Ring.

10th place Matt Kenseth

His roller coaster ride through the standings hit a climb last weekend, as he vaulted the No. 17 car into the top ten. Getting used to working with new Crew Chief, Chip Bowlen, hasn’t been easy for Kenseth, but it has come up good in the summer months. However, he and the team are by no means safe.

Bristol’s propensity for surprises and Kenseth’s slim margin over 13th and 14th mean that he could easily fall to 14th (or even 16th) if the race doesn’t go in his favor. Kenseth does have two wins in the Bristol night race but those were in the old car before the track’s resurfacing. In the past two races, his finishes have been 39th and 10th. He’ll be hoping for the latter finish (or something similar) given that he and the team has no room for error.

11th place Kasey Kahne

The momentum from his two wins seems to have subsided; no top fives since Michigan in June and an engine failure last weekend dropped him and the No. 9 team to 11 (barely in The Chase). The trend says this should be his year (even numbered year’s have been his best in his brief Cup Career). However, you can’t simply trust a trend at this point in the season, especially if you’re in his position. The talent is there, but the momentum and consistency isn’t at the moment. They may be in trouble if Bristol doesn’t see a turn around.

12th place Denny Hamlin

The look on his face said it all after Michigan. Given the success of Kyle Busch and the improved performance of Tony Stewart, the No. 11 team shouldn’t be where they are. However, an engine failure at Michigan sees them barely hanging on to 12th. This team has developed a bad habit of running very well but not “sealing the deal” (see the Bristol Spring race as evidence).

They can’t let opportunities slip past them as they’ve done so often. They could, and probably will, make The Chase (the odds are they will), but this team won’t make any noise until they figure out how to consistently finish where they run. Otherwise, this team will always be tagged with a “What if.”

13th place Clint Bowyer

26 points separate him and the No. 07 team from a second Chase birth, but the gains made at Michigan came via others’ problems, not through a good run on their part (they finished 20th). Even though Richmond (where he won in May) still looms, I don’t this team getting in. The performance just doesn’t seem to be there. May be next year.

14th David Ragan

Midnight has not yet struck for Cinderella. Almost 100 points out after Watkins Glen, I thought the end was near for Ragan and the No. 6 team. However, a fine third at Michigan (coupled with others’ mistakes) see him now within 26 points of being this year’s Chase surprise.

All things point to this team missing out, largely due to a lack of experience from the driver. However, Ragan’s constant improvement through the year and the team’s consistent performance means they have as equal a shot as anyone else still in the hunt.

They may be an over achieving underdog, but they just may knock out one of the under performing stars (and don’t be surprised if it happens).