NBA Power Rankings: Top 25 Fantasy Basketball Point Guards for 2010-11
Welcome to NBA Soup’s Fantasy Basketball Player Rankings for the 2010-11 fantasy basketball season! Here, we will break down the top 25 players at each position and project their stats for the 2010-11 season, starting with point guards.
Positions vary depending on what type of league you participate in. For example, in some formats, Dwyane Wade is considered a PG/SG. If this is the case, you’d probably be wise to consider him somewhere in the top two or three PGs.
But for purposes of these rankings, only players that are point guards in almost every type of format will be listed.
Starting at the bottom…
Sleeper: Ramon Sessions (Cleveland)
Projected Stats: 45.2% FG, 76.9% FT, 13.0 PTS, 2.2 REB, 6.5 AST, 0.2 3PT, 1.3 STL, 0.1 BLK
The Cavaliers will probably be playing a good amount of small ball under new coach Byron Scott, and Sessions is the only true point guard in the roster. It’s not inconceivable that Sessions and Mo Williams will both be starting—if not, they’ll still share a lot of time on the court together.
Sessions struggled in Minnesota’s system, but he nearly averaged a double-double during his time as a starter with Milwaukee in 2008-09. He has good chemistry with Williams (they played together in 2007-08) and is Cleveland’s best dribble-drive player on roster.
25. Jameer Nelson (Orlando)
Projected Stats: 45.7% FG, 86.3% FT, 13.5 PTS, 3.4 REB, 5.8 AST, 1.5 3PT, 1.0 STL, 0.1 BLK
Maybe not overly sexy on paper but Nelson has been consistently strong as Orlando’s point guard in the last three seasons.
His points have varied (10.9, 16.7, 12.6), but his rebound, assist and FG, FT and 3PT percentages have remained constant since he took on the role of starter. Don’t expect much to change this season.
24. Andre Miller (Portland)
Projected Stats: 45.5% FG, 84.3% FT, 13.8 PTS, 3.7 REB, 5.9 AST, 0.2 3PT, 1.2 STL, 0.1 BLK
One of the most durable players in the league, Miller has never played less than 80 games in a season and has played all 82 games eight times in his 11-year career.
Much like Nelson, his stats never really peak or drop off. Last year’s 3.2 rebounds per game were a career low—he had averaged four plus rebounds for nine straight seasons.
The only thing to watch out for is his minutes per game; his 30.5 per game last season were the lowest since his rookie season. If the Blazers continue to like what they see in Jerryd Bayless, then Miller’s minutes could drop off a bit more this year as well.
23. Jrue Holiday (Philadelphia)
Projected Stats: 43.3% FG, 78.2% FT, 12.5 PTS, 3.1 REB, 6.0 AST, 1.1 3PT, 1.5 STL, 0.1 BLK
The Sixers were nearly a .500 team with Holiday at the point last season and coach Doug Collins seems content with him starting at the point over Lou Williams.
But Evan Turner and Andre Iguodala are two players who like to operate with the ball in their hands, which means while Holiday may initiate the offense, his assist and point totals might not increase as much as some think.
22. Jamal Crawford (Atlanta)
Projected Stats: 45.1% FG, 84.9% FT, 18.5 PTS, 2.2 REB, 3.5 AST, 1.9 3PT, 0.9 STL, 0.1 BLK
Crawford really gelled in his role as the sixth man for Atlanta, and he’ll more than likely continue that role this season. The Hawks didn’t really add a lot of firepower to their bench (aside from rookie Jordan Crawford) so Crawford’s numbers should be around the same as they were for 2009-10.
One caveat is that Crawford is looking for a contract extension and reportedly will ask for a trade if the Hawks don’t oblige. Depending on where (and if) he’s traded to, it could diminish his fantasy value.
21. Tony Parker (San Antonio)
Projected Stats: 49.8% FG, 77.7% FT, 17.9 PTS, 2.9 REB, 6.1 AST, 0.2 3PT, 0.7 STL, 0.1 BLK
Parker’s in a contract year, which typically means an increase in numbers, but playing in San Antonio won’t necessarily result in statistical productivity. He’s missed 49 games over the last three seasons so his durability is in question a bit, but Parker is another one of those players who doesn’t seem to have polarizing years.
Expect his assist and point totals to improve from last year. He’s also one of the best field goal percentage guards in the league—he hasn’t shot less than 48.2 percent in the last six seasons.
20. Devin Harris (New Jersey)
Projected Stats: 42.6% FG, 83.1% FT, 17.5 PTS, 2.8 REB, 6.5 AST, 1.0 3PT, 1.5 STL, 0.2 BLK
Harris has a better supporting cast surrounding him, and he’s reunited with Avery Johnson, the coach who helped him break through from 2006 to 2008. The Nets will be better than the 12-win team they put forward last year, and as the point guard, you would expect Harris to be better as well.
The only real question surrounding him is injury problems—he hasn’t played more than 64 games since 2007. At some point, you might have to take into account that he will miss 10 or more games in a season and that really hurts his value at such a deep position.
19. Darren Collison (Indiana)
Projected Stats: 45.6% FG, 86.1% FT, 15 PTS, 2.2 REB, 7.2 AST, 0.8 3PT, 1.4 STL, 0.1 BLK
Collison was one of 2009’s breakout players, thriving from a fantasy standpoint while filling in for an injured Chris Paul. He was moved to Indiana this summer and has an opportunity to star opposite of Danny Granger on a team that has struggled with point guard play for years.
It wouldn’t be unwise to think his 12.4 points, 5.7 assists total from last season will go up, but all of a sudden he goes from a cushy backup role to arguably the second-best player on Indiana’s roster. Teams will plan to slow him down and while he has definite later-round value, don’t be fooled into taking him too early.
18. Baron Davis (L.A. Clippers)
Projected Stats: 41.1% FG, 79.9% FT, 14.9 PTS, 3.9 REB, 7.4 AST, 1.2 3PT, 1.6 STL, 0.4 BLK
The explosiveness seems to have disappeared a little from Baron’s game since he signed with L.A. two years ago, and his point totals have significantly dropped as well. He’s 31 heading into the season and has past injury problems, playing in 46, 54, 63, 82, 65 and 75 games, respectively, from 2004 to 2010.
When he’s on the court, he produces. He’ll still get seven plus assists per game and is typically one of the league leaders in steals. He also contributes an inordinately high amount of blocks for a PG.
Maybe one of the biggest gambles in this year’s point guard crop, Davis could really thrive with two viable low-post options (Blake Griffin, Chris Kaman) and a strong shooting guard (Eric Gordon). Or he could play 60 games while the reins are handed over to the younger stars.
17. Brandon Jennings (Milwaukee)
Projected Stats: 41.5% FG, 82.3% FT, 16.2 PTS, 3.7 REB, 7.2 AST, 2.0 3PT, 1.5 STL, 0.2 BLK
People will be scared of Jennings’ paltry 37.1 field goal percentage in 2009-10, but remember that he played half the season without John Salmons (who really took pressure off of him in half-court sets) and started to develop consistency towards the end of the regular season and the playoffs.
Milwaukee has reloaded with weapons in offense (Corey Maggette, Larry Sanders and Drew Gooden) so look for Jennings to take on more of a facilitating role this season. As a result, he can pick and choose his spots a little better and will increase his field goal percentage. He’ll knock down some three’s and get a few steals as well.
T-15. John Wall (Washington)
Projected Stats: 44.5% FG, 75% FT, 16.2 PTS, 4.3 REB, 7.0 AST, 0.6 3PT, 1.8 STL, 0.2 BLK
It’s only right to lump Wall and Arenas together, given the amount of conversation that’s been surrounding them and the Wizards this offseason.
It’s always difficult to project stats for rookies, but Wall’s numbers should compare well to his freshman year at Kentucky. He’s not going to make a lot of three’s and his mid-range game is still shaky, but he’ll thrive in the open court—his baseline-to-baseline speed with the ball is maybe the fastest in the league…and he hasn’t played a game yet!
Even if he struggles initially, his value will come in the latter half of this year…much like Steph Curry in Golden State last season.
T-15. Gilbert Arenas (Washington)
Projected Stats: 42.4% FG, 80.2% FT, 20.5 PTS, 3.7 REB, 5.2 AST, 2.1 3PT, 1.5 STL, 0.2 BLK
Arenas, on the other hand, is maybe the biggest question mark in fantasy this year. He’s played 47 games over the last three seasons so his averages (21.3 points, 6.7 assists, 4.1 rebounds) might be skewed a bit because of the small sample size. He’s used to being Washington’s primary ball-handler but that will change with Wall playing the point.
Can he adjust to fewer touches? Will he accept the role as “Robin” to Wall’s “Batman,” as he suggested a few weeks ago? If he can, he still has significant value. If not, it won’t be a pleasant situation for Arenas owners because of how difficult it will be for the Wizards to move his massive contract.
14. Mo Williams (Cleveland)
Projected Stats: 43.2% FG, 90% FT, 17.9 PTS, 2.3 REB, 5.5 AST, 2.4 3PT, 1 STL, 0.1 BLK
As funny (or painful) as it might seem that Mo Williams is the No. 1 scoring option on a team, it’s the case this year in Cleveland. Obviously, generating offense without LeBron James will be more difficult, but a Williams-Sessions backcourt could work out well for Mo.
He can play off the ball, spot up at the three-point line, and some of the pressure of him being “the man” will be reduced. His field goal percentage might drop, but he’ll take more shots and get more points.
13. Raymond Felton (New York)
Projected Stats: 46.1% FG, 79.4% FT, 14.5 PTS, 3.9 REB, 8.0 AST, 1.1 3PT, 1.8 STL, 0.1 BLK
A disappointment in Charlotte as the fifth overall pick in 2005, part of Felton’s struggles can be contributed to his confined role in the Bobcats system. He’s never played with a strong low-post player (aside from Gerald Wallace) and because he’s not a great shooter, his value on a slow-it-down, defensive-oriented team diminished.
But Mike D’Antoni has been known to work magic with point guards, as evidenced by Steve Nash’s statistical explosion in Phoenix and the fact that Chris Duhon had even any amount of fantasy value in New York.
In North Carolina, Felton was great in Roy Williams’ up-tempo system and was considered one of the best PGs in college basketball. He’ll have shooters (Toney Douglas and Danilo Gallinari) on the perimeter and some active forwards (Amar’e Stoudemire and Anthony Randolph) roaming around on a team that will score 100 plus points per game. If he doesn’t breakout this year, it may not come.
12. Aaron Brooks (Houston)
Projected Stats: 43.9% FG, 84.7% FT, 19.2 PTS, 2.2 REB, 5.8 AST, 2.4 3PT, 1 STL, 0.1 BLK
Brooks exploded on the scene last year, nearly doubling his assist, point and three-point totals from 2008-09. It’s hard to imagine those numbers going up again but that doesn’t stop him from being a fringe top-10 PG.
Keep an eye on how Houston integrates Yao Ming back in the lineup. Yao will have a reduced role and will sit out some games, but if the Rockets make a concerted effort to get him and Kevin Martin more involved, it will take the ball out of Brooks’ hands.
11. Russell Westbrook (Oklahoma City)
Projected Stats: 43.3% FG, 80% FT, 16.7 PTS, 5.2 REB, 8.5 AST, 0.5 3PT, 1.5 STL, 0.3 BLK
People will point out Westbrook’s lack of three-pointers, his questionable jump shot and high turnover rate as red flags from taking him too high.
But sometimes there’s no need to overcomplicate things. Westbrook was the second-best player on a 50-win team last season that will compete for a top two or three spot in the West this year. He matured during his time in the FIBA Championships and will be a better overall player this year. His numbers will be fine.
10. Chauncey Billups (Denver)
Projected Stats: 41.4% FG, 90.3% FT, 17.3 PTS, 3.3 REB, 6.0 AST, 2.1 3PT, 1.1 STL, 0.1 BLK
After eight seasons of averaging more than 16 points and 5.5 assists, you know what to expect from Billups at this point. But the Carmelo Anthony situation will have an effect on him as well. If Denver really wants to save money, they might look to move Billups and his $14 million plus contract in a possible multi-team deal as well.
If he remains a Nugget (which is more than likely), it doesn’t necessarily a mean a spike in his numbers. The team will be looking for the future, which could result in more minutes for Ty Lawson.
9. Tyreke Evans (Sacramento)
Projected Stats: 45.9% FG, 77.5% FT, 22.3 PTS, 4.9 REB, 5.9 AST, 0.7 3PT, 1.6 STL, 0.3 BLK
The 2009-10 Rookie of the Year Evans will look to build on a season where he became the fourth rookie to average 20 points, five rebounds and five assists in a season.
It’s hard to imagine a scenario where he dramatically improves on his 5.3 rebound, 5.8 assist average, but he could emerge as one of the best scoring guards in the league this season.
8. Derrick Rose (Chicago)
Projected Stats: 50.2% FG, 77.1% FT, 19.2 PTS, 3.2 REB, 8.0 AST, 0.3 3PT, 1.2 STL, 0.3 BLK
While a lot of people think of the Bulls as one of the Eastern Conference’s top contenders, not many see Rose as one of the elite fantasy point guards—he’s been ranked outside the top 15 in several other rankings.
The question is why?
His complementary scoring options in the past (Ben Gordon and John Salmons, to name a couple) are players who operate with the ball in their hands and don’t rely on someone like Rose setting them up for jumpers.
This year, he has a catch-and-shoot option at guard (Kyle Korver) who led the league in three-point percentage in 2010. He has not one but two legitimate pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop options (Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah). And he’s viewed as one of the best dribble-penetrators in the league.
Don’t be fooled by his drop off in assists last year—he was asked to do a lot just to carry the Bulls to the playoffs. With the most amount of talent he’s ever seen surrounding him, it’ll be a big fantasy year for Rose.
7. Jason Kidd (Dallas)
Projected Stats: 42.5% FG, 81.3% FT, 10 PTS, 5.8 REB, 8.5 AST, 2.1 3PT, 1.7 STL, 0.3 BLK
The ageless wonder that is Jason Kidd will probably keep producing until he physically can’t walk on the court anymore. He’s added three-pointers to his triple-double threat repertoire in the last two years, only giving him that much more value.
That said, he is 37 and Dallas has a potential goldmine in Roddy Beaubois behind him on the depth chart. It’s tough to see him still getting 36 minutes a game this year.
6. Monta Ellis (Golden State)
Projected Stats: 44.3% FG, 79.5% FT, 24.7 PTS, 4.2 REB, 5.3 AST, 1.4 3PT, 2 STL, 0.3 BLK
Ellis’ career-high 25.5 points per game last season were countered by 3.8 turnovers per game and his lowest field goal percentage (44.9) since he was a rookie. But he’s one of the best-scoring guards in the NBA and will get his points this year as well.
Just be on the lookout for how much David Lee gets involved in the offense and how Steph Curry dictates the offense—these are factors that could drop Monta’s value ever-so-slightly.
5. Steve Nash (Phoenix)
Projected Stats: 49.6% FG, 93% FT, 15.5 PTS, 3.5 REB, 10.5 AST, 1.7 3PT, 0.5 STL, 0.1 BLK
Concerns about not having an All-Star power forward are valid when discussing Nash’s fantasy value—he’s played with Amar’e Stoudemire and Dirk Nowitzki for his entire career.
But the Suns have an up-and-coming Robin Lopez at center and Hedo Turkoglu adds another outside threat. Phoenix will play small and Nash will be near his usual 50-40-90 (FG percent, 3PT percent, FT percent) and one of the league’s assist leaders.
4. Rajon Rondo (Boston)
Projected Stats: 51.5% FG, 63% FT, 16 PTS, 5.7 REB, 10.4 AST, 0.2 3PT, 2.2 STL, 0.1 BLK
Obviously there are two glaring weaknesses when comparing Rondo to the elite fantasy point guards: free throw percentage and three-point totals.
While he’s significantly worse than everyone else in the top seven in those two categories, his versatility makes the difference. He’ll average five plus rebounds, two plus steals, and his field goal percentage has been over 49 percent in the last three seasons.
A lot of talk last year was centered around Boston’s veterans hesitating to turn the reins over to Rondo. His performance in the playoffs answered all of those doubts—he’s ready. And it’s time to start expecting playoff averages (15.8 points, 9.3 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 1.9 steals) as the norm in the regular season for him.
3. Stephen Curry (Golden State)
Projected Stats: 46.5% FG, 90% FT, 19.3 PTS, 4.4 REB, 6.9 AST, 2.3 3PT, 2.1 STL, 0.1 BLK
Curry blew up in the second-half of last season and will carry that performance into the 2010-11 season.
Playing in Golden State might skew his numbers a bit, but that’s completely acceptable for fantasy purposes. He’s definitely a top 10-15 pick in most formats.
2. Deron Williams (Utah)
Projected Stats: 47.4% FG, 80.9% FT, 19.1 PTS, 3.8 REB, 10.9 AST, 1.2 3PT, 1.3 STL, 0.2 BLK
He’s averaged 18 points and 10 assists for the last three seasons and shows no signs of slowing down.
When Chris Paul went down last year, he emerged as the best fantasy point guard option and his name was tossed around when discussing the best PG in the NBA. Williams will once again be a force in Utah.
1. Chris Paul (New Orleans)
Projected Stats: 49.8 FG percent, 85.2 FT percent, 22.4 pts, 4.5 rebs, 11.3 asts, 1.2 3pt, 2.3 stls, .1 blks
In the “what have you done for me lately” world we live in, many have forgotten just how good Paul is because of the knee injury last season and the struggles of the Hornets.
But when healthy, he’s a 20-points, 10-assists, two-steal kind of guy. Throw in solid percentages and above-average three’s and rebounds for a PG, and he’s hands-down the No. 1 option in 2010-11.
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