After Hank Steinbrenner’s "contract offer" to Joe Torre was turned down, there was a great deal of discussion in the press about the imminent demise of the New York Yankees.

We were told that Alex Rodriguez was gone, and Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, and Jorge Posada would  likely follow. As the month of November drew to a close, that which we should have suspected all along became clear—the players followed the money.

Excluding Torre (whose direct value to the success of this franchise is a matter worthy of debate), all of the prominent Yankees free agents have returned. Despite this, I am not not particularly confident in the Yankees’ ability to return to the postseason in 2008, if for no reason other than natural regression toward the mean.     

The Angels were the West’s best team in 2007, with the addition of Torii Hunter—a questionable long term move, but one sure to help them in the next year or two—they look to improve in 2008, with no real competition in their division.

Other than the Angels, the best four teams in the league, and in Major League Baseball, were the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Indians, and the Tigers. These four teams will be vying for three playoff spots in 2008—and in my opinion, the Yankees are the odd one out.

I will not go into too much detail on the specifics regarding Boston, Detroit, and Cleveland, but none look to be weaker in the coming season.

Boston, which finished in first in the American League East with a record of 96 wins and 66 losses, is retaining all of its star power. They will receive a boon from the continued development of future stars Clay Bucholz, Jon Lester, and Jacoby Ellsbury. Additionally, they suffered through unusually poor 2007 campaigns from right fielder J.D. Drew, shortstop Julio Lugo, and the injury-plagued Manny Ramirez. All three of these men figure to produce better numbers in the coming season.

Cleveland, also winners of 96 in 2007, look just as strong coming into 2008. The rotation is intact and like Boston, the offense of the 2008 Indians looks to improve naturally. The Indians should get a boost from even a partial rebound for Travis Hafner (who was far and away the league’s best hitter in 2006), and a full season from Asdrubal Cabrera—who cannot possibly be worse than the Tribe’s primary second baseman of 2007, Josh Barfield.

Detroit’s improvements have been the most publicized in baseball this off-season. They have added Edgar Renteria, Jacque Jones, and Miguel Cabrera, improving offensively at four positions (the Renteria signing enabling the Tigers to replace Sean Casey’s bat with Carlos Guillen’s at first base). Additionally, they have added Dontrelle Willis, whose potential contributions I have discussed in some detail in an earlier article.

The Yankees likely will not improve next season, despite losing no substantive personnel. They will continue to boast a fine and deep rotation; losing Roger Clemens, but heading into camp with Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and potentially Ian Kennedy in the mix.

The offense is the issue—it looks to take a substantial hit. The 2008 Yankees will have basically the same starting nine as in 2007, but they will not be as strong. This is for two reasons:  Posada and Alex Rodriguez.

In 2007, Posada had an MVP-caliber year, producing 8.2 Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP), according to Baseball Prospectus. During the three seasons prior to 2007, Posada’s WARP were 7.5, 4.8, and 6.7, an average of 6.3. If Posada reverts to previous form, he will be worth roughly two wins fewer than last year. More likely, he will fall somewhere beneath this, as most 36-year-old catchers do.

In 2007 Rodriguez won the American League’s Most Valuable Player award, and deservedly so. He was worth 11 wins more than a replacement-level third baseman. From 2003-2006, he produced WARP totals of 9.5, 7.6, 10.5, and 5.2, for an average of 8.2.

His WARP average is fantastic, but well short of 11.0. If Rodriguez returns to his production levels of 2003-2006, he will be worth three wins fewer than he was in 2007.

Again, all other things being equal, if Rodriquez and Posada produce at their normal levels, the Yankees will project to win a total of five fewer games in 2008.    

It should also be noted that the rest of the Yankees lineup does not seem likely to out-perform its 2007 numbers. Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui and Derek Jeter have all been excellent contributors. They are, however, aged 33, 33, 36, 33, and 33, respectively, ages at which players begin to rapidly decline. They are increasingly at risk of injury, and all five saw their rate statistics take a dip in 2007; dropping from a collective batting line of .298/.406/.493/.899 to one of .286/.371/.446/.817.

Even with continued development from Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera, it seems highly unlikely that the batting order of the 2008 New York Yankees will match what the 2007 version produced.

All this having been said, I do not think that the Yankees will be unable to field a competitive squad in 2008. I think they will be, easily, one of the top five, perhaps even top four teams in the League. It is my opinion, however, that whatever they produce, it will not be quite enough to put them on the same level as the Tigers, Red Sox, and Indians.

I believe that for the first time since 1993, the Yankees will be watching the Division Series on TBS; subjected to the same tortuously repetitive commercials the rest of us must suffer through.