BCS Contenders? The Legitimate Results May Surprise You: Part II

Chase TitlemanContributor IOctober 5, 2010

BCS Contenders? The Legitimate Results May Surprise You: Part II

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    38% of the 150 Fans Who Voted Selected Boise State To Play Alabama in BCS Championship!Otto Kitsinger III/Getty Images

    Much of the nation has been abuzz this week regarding Oregon's shell-shocking domination over a worthy Stanford Cardinal program at Autzen Stadium on Saturday evening in front of a live national audience.

    At the same time, much of the nation has been focused on the Oregon-Boise debate regarding the Ducks climb to the number three pole position in the AP Writers Poll, surpassing Boise State, who has soundly defeated Oregon in two of the previous seasons (08 & 09).

    Hidden in plain sight for all to see regarding this straw man tactic is that Ohio State assumes their entitled royalty position in the number two slot behind Alabama, which in my mind (and many others) has been the clear front runner to defend their BCS national title, especially since the second half of the Arkansas tilt two weeks ago.

    The speed, passion, sense of urgency and coaching was all on display with the champion backed against the ropes.  The Tide more than held their own as they came out swinging and delivered a knock-out blow of their own, sending a frustrated Razorback Nation back to the drawing board.

    But a closer look at the Key Stat Indicators suggest that maybe the debate should be centered on Ohio State, rather than the Ducks and Boise for as the numbers show, TCU and Michigan have both surpassed the Buckeyes in the key statistical departments that separate the men from the boys.

    Team NPI SOS QBR OR DR 3DO 3DD SO SD TO KSI
    Alabama
    (5-0) (12-7)
    1
    (1)
    25
    (7)
    166.7
    (6)
    McElroy
    229
    (8)
    101
    (7)
    48
    (5)
    26
    (1)
    37
    (7)
    9
    (1)
    1.4
    (5)
    48
    Boise St.
    (4-0) (7-7)
    2
    (2)
    58
    (12)
    176.2
    (4)
    Moore
    229
    (8)
    75
    (1)
    47
    (6)
    27
    (2)
    45
    (3)
    15
    (5)
    .5
    (10)
    53
    Oregon
    (5-0) (10-9)
    4
    (4)
    56
    (11)
    148.1
    (12)
    Thomas
    331
    (1)
    133
    (11)
    46
    (7)
    27
    (2)
    56
    (1)
    15
    (5)
    2.2
    (1)
    55
    TCU
    (5-0) (10-8)
    3
    (3)
    51
    (10)
    137.2
    (16)
    Dalton
    275
    (5)
    100
    (6)
    53
    (3)
    26
    (1)
    41
    (5)
    12
    (3)
    .6
    (9)
    61
    Michigan
    (5-0) (13-6)
    9
    (9)
    24
    (6)
    180
    (3)
    Robinson
    324
    (2)
    125
    (9)
    54
    (2)
    41
    (11)
    41
    (5)
    25
    (10)
    .8
    (8)
    65
    Ohio St.
    (5-0) (8-10)
    8
    (8)
    71
    (13)
    161.7
    (8)
    Pryor
    234
    (7)
    80
    (3)
    38
    (13)
    28
    (3)
    44
    (4)
    14
    (4)
    1.8
    (3)
    66
    Auburn
    (5-0) (10-7)
    12
    (11)
    43
    (9)
    191.4
    (1)
    Newton
    269
    (6)
    92
    (5)
    47
    (6)
    35
    (7)
    36
    (8)
    18
    (6)
    .2
    (12)
    71
    Nevada
    (5-0) (7-11)
    6
    (6)
    74
    (14)
    157
    (9)
    Kaepernick
    303
    (4)
    127
    (10)
    62
    (1)
    40
    (10)
    44
    (4)
    20
    (8)
    .2
    (12)
    78
    LSU
    (5-0) (11-6)
    5
    (5)
    15
    (3)
    88
    (18)
    Jefferson
    195
    (11)
    79
    (2)
    42
    (10)
    31
    (5)
    24
    (13)
    12
    (3)
    -.4
    (14)
    84
    Arizona
    (4-0) (10-4)
    11
    (10)
    20
    (4)
    149.8
    (11)
    Foles
    120
    (17)
    101
    (7)
    46
    (7)
    31
    (5)
    34
    (9)
    11
    (2)
    0
    (13)
    85
    Northwestern
    (5-0) (7-11)
    18
    (16)
    92
    (16)
    184.6
    (2)
    Persa
    155
    (14)
    122
    (8)
    51
    (4)
    30
    (4)
    29
    (12)
    18
    (6)
    1
    (7)
    89
    Utah
    (4-0) (4-11)
    17
    (15)
    114
    (18)
    154.9
    (10 )
    Wynn
    176
    (12)
    86
    (4)
    51
    (4)
    32
    (6)
    44
    (4)
    12
    (3)
    -.75
    (15)
    91
    Oklahoma St
    (4-0) (9-5)
    15
    (13)
    33
    (8)
    169.7
    (5)
    Weeden
    170
    (13)
    134
    (12)
    42
    (10)
    43
    (12)
    52
    (2)
    29
    (11)
    1.2
    (6)
    92
    Nebraska
    (4-0) (5-8)
    19
    (17)
    102
    (17)
    139.1
    (14)
    Martinez
    309
    (3)
    138
    (13)
    45
    (8)
    28
    (3)
    40
    (6)
    12
    (3)
    .5
    (10)
    94
    Oklahoma
    (5-0) (14-5)
    7
    (7)
    21
    (5)
    137.4
    (15)
    Jones
    121
    (16)
    163
    (15)
    44
    (9)
    38
    (9)
    32
    (10)
    22
    (9)
    2
    (2)
    97
    Missouri
    (4-0) (10-3)
    13
    (12)
    12
    (2)
    133
    (17)
    Gabbert
    154
    (15)
    146
    (14)
    39
    (12)
    40
    (10)
    37
    (7)
    14
    (4)
    1.5
    (4)
    97
    KState
    (4-0) (10-4)
    16
    (14)
    7
    (1)
    147.6
    (13)
    Coffman
    216
    (10)
    195
    (16)
    41
    (11)
    37
    (8)
    30
    (11)
    19
    (7)
    .5
    (10)
    101
    Michigan St
    (5-0) (9-8)
    26
    (18)
    80
    (15)
    164.8
    (7)
    Cousins
    220
    (9)
    101
    (7)
    37
    (14)
    38
    (9)
    36
    (8)
    18
    (6)
    .4
    (11)
    104

Crimson Tide The Epidimy Of A Championship Football Team.

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    The Clear #1 - Alabama Crimson Tide

    After Arkansas drove over 70-yards in three plays on the opening drive, Alabama knew they were in for a long day in Fayetteville.


    But it was Arkansas that unraveled down the stretch after leading 20-7 with a little over a quarter to go, and it was the Crimson Tide that demonstrated the mark of a championship program.

    Alabama since that ugly first half in Fayetteville has dominated two quality opponents in the Gators and the Hogs.  The beat down over Florida this past weekend served notice that the Tide will be hard to beat down the stretch and their young defensive stars are starting to mature and gel under the guidance of Nick Saban.


    If you watch the video above, notice the speed, determination, passion and ferociousness that Alabama played with in the second half versus Arkansas.  What you witness is the will and heart of a champion that would not be denied.


    With a balanced and efficient offense built around running the football to control clock, field position and time of possession together with a defense that is focused on stopping the run and third down execution, Alabama is the consummate picture of what a champion should look like in college football.

    When I put together the KSI Index Rating on Monday evening, I had no idea how the results would turn out although I did suspect that Alabama would rate at the top due to their efficiency and ability to run the ball on offense and also the ability to stop the run and get off the field on third down.

    In controlling the tempo on third down, Alabama can then turn a balanced team into a one-dimensional opponent and blitz at will, which creates turnovers and short field scoring opportunities.  I am not surprised at how the KSI Index Rating turned out in Alabama's favor.

    Crimson Tide Overview:

    Record:  5-0

    Opponents Record:  12-7

    NPI (Nolan Power Index):  1st

    Strength of Schedule:  1st

    Turnover Margin:  5th (1.4)

    Key Victories:  Arkansas (4-1) & Florida (4-1)...victories over 2 Top-10 opponents.

    KSI Results:  Not overly impressive on the offensive side of the ball, the Tide rely on defensive pressure and disruption to create turnover and short field scoring opportunities, where QB Greg McElroy excels in an efficient and rather conservative game plan.  They rate 8th in offensive rush, 6th in QB Efficiency Rating and 7th in scoring offense.

    The defense is another animal altogether.  The Tide rank number one in third down efficiency on defense and first in scoring defense giving up a meager 9 points per ball game in 2010.  It all balances out to the top KSI score of 48, which is 5 points ahead of second place Boise State and 7 points ahead of Oregon.

    Ohio State is nowhere to be found in the Top-5!

Boise State An Emphatic #2 In The KSI Index Rating

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    Oh I love it.  In this land of America, which was founded upon the greatest underdog story in the history of the world when they took on the English Monarchy from Great Britain over two hundred years ago, we have another underdog story trying break another stronghold over the royalty laden establishment.

    What many people do not realize is that the Royalty teams like Ohio State, Alabama, Florida, LSU, Texas and Oklahoma (among others) are also linked to British Royalty and the Central Banking Complex, so it is not surprising that we have an utter oligarchic monopoly controlling the landscape of college football, but that is a story for another day.

    I should know, I wrote a book manuscript on the subject and much of the information that will be coming out in a new book called Death to the BCS sounds very similar to the research I uncovered in my own book manuscript project.

    I had one comment from my first article on this subject (Part I) that suggested the results were tainted because I wasn't considering the entire schedule.

    Question:  How can we consider the entire schedule when we haven't gotten through the entire schedule?

    The results speak for themselves.

    The only team, other than Boise, to make it through a difficult schedule unscathed in the early going by playing two high quality opponents in the first five weeks of the season is Alabama, who has defeated Arkansas and Florida in successive weeks.

    Say what you want about Virginia Tech's loss to an FCS school in James Madison, but they literally had three days to prepare and this after a grueling high intensity game with Boise State.  Plus, it isn't like James Madison is a crummy football program and it is not the first time an FCS school has beaten an FBS school.

    In case you missed it, it happens quite regularly!

    Only in the perception is reality TV Series called "As The BCS Turns" can a team who wasn't even a participant in a particular game (Virginia Tech vs James Madison) come out a loser (Boise State).

    Already this season, Boise State has defeated Virginia Tech and Oregon State, who will continue to get better and climb through the PAC-10 as the season progresses, just as they have for the last three years.

    There may not be a better coach in America who develops his players better from start to end than Mike Riley in Corvallis.

    In the last five years, Oregon and Oregon State have been at or near the top of the PAC-10 standings...Boise is 4-1 versus both schools...other victories include TCU and Oklahoma in the same time span.

    With Nevada continuing to shine, it will likely be three opponents who are ranked in the Top-25 by the end of the season on Boise's schedule.  And by the way, I'd take Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada and Boise over Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota and Purdue so it isn't like Ohio State is playing in the SEC West...I won't bother to mention the dismal performance of the SEC East as I know you are all competent football fans on BR!

    Think of it another way...Northwestern of the Big-10 is like Nevada of the WAC.  Fresno State of the WAC is similar to Wisconsin.  Hawaii could beat both Minnesota, Indiana or Illinois.  Boise State could give Ohio State all it wants and then some.

    It is time to stop living in the past and off a legacy created half a century ago.  The Spread Offense has changed the dynamic of college football.

    Boise State Overview:

    Record:  4-0

    Opponents Record:  7-7

    NPI (Nolan Power Index):  2nd

    Strength of Schedule:  58th

    Turnover Margin:  10th (.5) among the undefeated programs remaining.

    Key Victories:  Virginia Tech (3-2) & Oregon State (2-2)


    KSI Results:  Boise State ranks number one in Rushing Defense among the undefeated programs remaining with 7 weeks to go in the regular season, 2nd in Third Down Defensive Efficiency Ratio, 3rd in Scoring Offense and 5th in Scoring Defense.  Comparing that with Ohio State, Oregon and Alabama it is a birds of a feather issue.

    Championship programs play to a standard of excellence irregardless of who they play for they truly know that it is more about their own issues that what the opponent brings.  Ohio State on the other hand plays up and down to the opponent which is something that should be brought to the table when voting for the Top-25, but we all know the media, or rather who owns the media, has their own issues and private agendas to serve.

    These stats are not being skewed...these are the real stats they are not made up or bent to overview or emphasize a hidden agenda as I had no idea how they would come out before beginning the process.

    Like it or not, Boise is number two!

    On a side note...The only issue I have with Boise is the cheap shot nature and sensibility that is being cultivated by their coaching staff.  It kind of reminds me of the bush league play that the Hurricanes used to be noted for.  Taking head shots (that were rather cheap in my mind since the players were essentially defenseless) at three different players in the last several years versus Oregon and Oregon State plus all the woofing that is going in between plays on is not the best way to make a statement about your program.

    Beating the daylights out of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl with a series of Trickeration specials is!

The Ducks Are For Real...And Yes We Have Heard This Before!

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    In a normal year, victories over Tennessee, Arizona State and Stanford to open the year would be cause for a celestial celebration, but Oregon has come to expect big victories over premier opponents.

    But Tennessee brings very little validation other than the fact that Oregon defeated the Vols by a greater margin and a greater domination than both LSU and Florida, who both struggled with Tennessee well into the final quarter.

    The LSU debacle this past weekend was more of a loss for LSU than a moral victory for it exposed the Tigers to the core in the leadership department.  The KSI Index will expose the Tigers even more, but that will come later in the show.

    With an off-season many would like to forget, Oregon has hit the ground running and many old timers around the Duck program rave about the changed atmosphere that Chip Kelly has created.

    "Win the Day" with an attention to the details of the present has changed the dynamic surrounding the Duck psyche, for they now understand how to handle the distractions that come with nationwide success.

    The Duck motor under Kelly is always running, to the tune of 100 plays in 100 minutes of practice and this tempo, more than any other aspect in the changing of the guard from Bellotti to Kelly, has paid big dividends for Oregon.

    The Ducks have outscored opponents 114-7 in the second half this season and you can almost feel the air going out of the opponent as the seconds tick away in the second half.  Opponents have faked just about every injury imaginable in an effort to slow down the Kelly offensive machine but to no avail.

    The biggest difference in Oregon from this year to years' past is that Oregon's motor is always running.  I know many will say the Ducks have been here before, but trust me, Oregon has not been playing with this type of passion, intensity and execution from start to finish at anytime in their programs history. 

    Only a series of injuries to key players at the skill position could slow this team down, but Oregon's depth has allowed it to keep cycling fresh players on and off the field in a steady efficient stream.  An Oregon - Alabama showdown may be the best game this year that no one will get to see.

    More than likely, due to the BCS Royalty shenanigans, the Ducks and Broncos will hook up in the Rose Bowl, which may be the best bowl game of the holidays.

    Ducks Overview:

    Record:  5-0

    Opponents Record:  10-9

    NPI (Nolan Power Index):  4th

    Strength of Schedule:  56th

    Turnover Margin:  1st among the undefeated programs.

    QB Rating:  148.1


    Key Victories:  Stanford & Arizona State

    KSI Results: The Ducks rank 1st in Rushing Offense, 1st in Scoring Offense and First in Turnover Margin, which is hiding a rather porous defense against the Rush (11th among the undefeated programs remaining).  They are however doing a great job of getting off the field as they rank second in third down efficiency on defense and 5th overall in scoring defense.

Frogs Balance The Difference Over Buckeyes

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    I must admit...seeing TCU and Michigan ahead of Ohio State in the KSI Index surprised me as I expected both programs to be down on the list of contenders remaining among the undefeated.

    But if you understand championship football, you understand the premium placed on defensive prowess.

    Few have been better than the Frogs in the last 5 years in this department.

    However, the Frogs have lost a little luster with struggles versus SMU and Colorado State, but then again, facing a June Jones offense at home in a rivalry game can be as difficult as any.

    But what to make of last weekends mediocre victory over Colorado State 34-17?

    I'll take Boise ahead of the Frogs, but taking the Frogs ahead of the Buckeye's is another matter.  That one is hard to swallow.

    Horned Frogs Overview:

    Record:  5-0

    Opponents Record:  10-8

    NPI (Nolan Power Index):  3rd

    Strength of Schedule:  51st

    Turnover Margin:  9th among the undefeated programs.

    QB Rating:  137.2 (Dalton)


    Key Victories:  Oregon State, which in the early going has lost a little luster (who hasn't beaten the Beavers in September during the last five seasons?).

    KSI Results: 1st in Third Down Defensive Efficiency Ratio, 3rd in Scoring Defense and 3rd in Offensive Third Down Efficiency Ratio, the Frogs have a balanced team as they finished 5th in Scoring and Rushing Offense.

Michigan A One Man Show!

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    But what a one man show it is.  The laceless wonder is proving the nay sayers wrong time and again this season. 

    Denard Robinson has been a one man wrecking crew this season, but as the season wanes into the Thanksgiving Holiday, one thing will surface.

    A woeful defense that can't seem to get off the field on third down will take a little shine off a promising season, but expect Michigan to get at least 8 if not nine wins by December.

    With everyone expecting a Michigan State victory this weekend, the KSI Index says otherwise as Michigan State ranks dead last among the undefeated programs remaining in the race for the BCS Championship.

    While the Michigan defense struggles to get off the field on third down, the offense has been equally proficient thus far in 2010.

    But then again, who have they played?

    This weekend will be their first big test but expect the Wolves to come out on top in a tightly contested ballgame which may be ripe with trickeration!

    Wolverine Overview:

    Record:  5-0

    Opponents Record:  13-6

    NPI (Nolan Power Index):  9th

    Strength of Schedule:  24th

    Turnover Margin:  8th among the undefeated programs.

    QB Rating:  180.00!


    Key Victories:  Notre Dame & UCONN.

    KSI Results:  Wonder why Michigan scores higher than Ohio State?  They've played a stronger schedule (24th compared to 71st for TOSU), have a quarterback who has a higher QB-Rating and they perform better on third down as Ohio State really struggles with third down efficiency on offense. 

    Sometimes you wonder if Ohio State isn't trying to win the MAC as well as the Big-10 Conference and do you always notice that Ohio State never plays the stronger programs within the MAC.  Even the victory over Miami is a bit tainted considering the struggles involving JaCorey Harris with interceptions.

    If Harris wasn't so color blind (what else is his excuse for throwing so many interceptions to opposing defenses) Miami beats Ohio State in Columbus.

Time For Terrelle Pryor To Step Up His Game!

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    Coming into the season, everyone expected Terrelle Pryor to be the Big-10 linchpin for the Heisman discussion.

    Well, the Big-10 is certain to win college footballs' storied award, but the trophy itself will not reside in Columbus, but in Ann Arbor.

    Denard Robinson is racing away with the award and is so far out in front at present that only an injury stands between Robinson and Heisman.

    Ohio State is certainly one of the great programs in college football, but it shouldn't be entitled to a front row seat to the BCS Championship, especially with the way they are playing.

    The best team in the Big-10 may have already lost its chance for the national title when Iowa lost on the road in Tucson.

    It will be interesting to see if the Buckeye's can pull it out and play to their potential, but then again, do we really want to see another Buckeye team get rolled by the speed in the SEC?

    Boise or Oregon versus Bama would be a better match-up speed wise.

    A changing of the guard may be needed for Ohio State to get over the hump as the offense is woefully predictable and only the athleticism of Terrelle Pryor on scramble plays bails out a rather conservative offense.

    Buckeye Overview:

    Record:  5-0

    Opponents Record:  8-10

    NPI (Nolan Power Index):  8th

    Strength of Schedule:  71st (how many people realize Boise's schedule is ranked higher at this point than Ohio States'?)

    Turnover Margin:  9th among the undefeated programs.

    QB Rating:  161.7, which is 8th among the undefeated programs and this against a schedule ranked 71st?  What would Denard Robinson or Kellen Moore do against such dismal competition?


    Key Victories:  Miami

    KSI Results: The Buckeyes rank no higher than third in any category of the KSI Index.  Compare that with Oregon, Boise State or Alabama.  The only thing that even keeps Ohio State in the list of contenders is a strong defense against the rush and the fact that they have played JaCorey Harris, one of the most turnover prone QB's in the nation next to Steven Threet (ASU) at present.

    Now I ask you again...who's fooling who here?

Best of The Rest?

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    Contender or Pretender?

    The three programs that look to challenge Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State and Boise State for inclusion into the national championship picture appear to be Auburn, Arizona and Nebraska.

    A closer look, however, reveals a different picture.

    Arizona and Auburn have decent opponent records at 10-4 and 10-7 respectively, but Nebraska's is a woeful 5-8, plus they really took a nose dive after their victory over Washington with a poor performance versus South Dakota.

    Auburn has the top rating QB with Cameron Newton (191 QB-Rating) but finishes no higher than 5th in any of the KSI Index tables.

    Arizona is in much the same boat, although their victory over Iowa is equal to the victory by Auburn over both Clemson and South Carolina.  Nebraska remains the monkey in the BCS wrench as they face a rather easy Big-12 North schedule and they are third in several of the KSI Index tables.  The only thing saving Oklahoma is the ability to create turnovers...how long can that continue?

    Both have to go through major contenders with Arizona facing Oregon and Auburn facing in-state and Iron Bowl rival Alabama.

    Nebraska and Oklahoma will likely end up in the Big-12 championship game assuming they can get by Oklahoma State and Missouri.

    Look for LSU to fade radically down the stretch as the QB-Rating is among the worst in the country at 88!  Plus you have the Les Miles factor working for you.

    Dark-horses to Watch:

    Northwestern

    Oklahoma State

    Nevada