BCS Contenders? The Legitimate Results May Surprise You

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BCS Contenders? The Legitimate Results May Surprise You
Otto Kitsinger III/Getty Images
Boise State the surprise #2 team according to the KSI Index Rating!

I wanted to get this out before I nod off to sleep this evening, but I ran my KSI Index Rating (Key Stat Indicators) comparing the remaining undefeated teams within the Top-25 for the first time this season as we are finally nearing the midpoint of the 2010 campaign.

I broke down the key statistics (based on my coaching and scouting experience) that I believe are important to characterize the mark of a championship team in college football.

First and foremost, you need a quarterback who can not only make good decisions and manage the game to keep the turnover margin in your favor, but also must have the ability to take the game over and lead a team from behind when the situation arises. 

The QB-Rating, or Pass Efficiency Rating is the key indicator of success at a championship level.

From the team standpoint, the programs that can both stop the run and run the football are key components to the BCS national championship.

Equally important along those lines is the ability to keep the drive going on third down and also to get off the field on defense on third downs as well so there is a reciprocal relationship here for third down conversion rates.  Offensively, you want to be in third and short, while defensively you want to create third and long situations for your opponents on a consistent basis.

Turnover Margin will affect the scoring offense as well as the scoring defense, so these are Key Statistical Indicators (KSI) as well.

Finally, I utilized the Warren-Nolan Power Index to determine both the Power Index Rating and Strength of Schedule issues that can affect the statistics and pad the records, for you want to have two opponents in the key BCS Bowl games that have arrived there due to playing a legitimate schedule.

Here are the results and I will have a full-report tomorrow evening explaining the rationale and the details that have affected this ranking system. 

Kind of shocking to most to see Boise State, Oregon, TCU, and Michigan all ahead of Ohio State in this system. 

Of course, the typically average fan who watches and studies college football can see that Ohio State is not playing to potential and has a rather padded schedule to this point, but of course with Ohio State being a royalty team whose place in line is always first to begin with, we are not surprised to see them in this position within the national poll system.

The question is not whether Oregon should pass Boise State, but should Boise, Oregon, TCU and Michigan pass Ohio State in the national polls.  It is a grand old hide the controversy in plain sight by creating a straw man (team) for the voters.  Same old shenanigans that are used in our political polling system.

More to come later as I am heading off to bed but...I am interested to hear the comments as I am sure to wrinkle a few noses on this issue.

Team NPI SOS QBR OR DR 3DO 3DD SO SD TO KSI
Alabama
(5-0) (12-7)
1
(1)
25
(7)
166.7
(6)
McElroy
229
(8)
101
(7)
48
(5)
26
(1)
37
(7)
9
(1)
1.4
(5)
48
Boise St.
(4-0) (7-7)
2
(2)
58
(12)
176.2
(4)
Moore
229
(8)
75
(1)
47
(6)
27
(2)
45
(3)
15
(5)
.5
(10)
53
Oregon
(5-0) (10-9)
4
(4)
56
(11)
148.1
(12)
Thomas
331
(1)
133
(11)
46
(7)
27
(2)
56
(1)
15
(5)
2.2
(1)
55
TCU
(5-0) (10-8)
3
(3)
51
(10)
137.2
(16)
Dalton
275
(5)
100
(6)
53
(3)
26
(1)
41
(5)
12
(3)
.6
(9)
61
Michigan
(5-0) (13-6)
9
(9)
24
(6)
180
(3)
Robinson
324
(2)
125
(9)
54
(2)
41
(11)
41
(5)
25
(10)
.8
(8)
65
Ohio St.
(5-0) (8-10)
8
(8)
71
(13)
161.7
(8)
Pryor
234
(7)
80
(3)
38
(13)
28
(3)
44
(4)
14
(4)
1.8
(3)
66
Auburn
(5-0) (10-7)
12
(11)
43
(9)
191.4
(1)
Newton
269
(6)
92
(5)
47
(6)
35
(7)
36
(8)
18
(6)
.2
(12)
71
Nevada
(5-0) (7-11)
6
(6)
74
(14)
157
(9)
Kaepernick
303
(4)
127
(10)
62
(1)
40
(10)
44
(4)
20
(8)
.2
(12)
78
LSU
(5-0) (11-6)
5
(5)
15
(3)
88
(18)
Jefferson
195
(11)
79
(2)
42
(10)
31
(5)
24
(13)
12
(3)
-.4
(14)
84
Arizona
(4-0) (10-4)
11
(10)
20
(4)
149.8
(11)
Foles
120
(17)
101
(7)
46
(7)
31
(5)
34
(9)
11
(2)
0
(13)
85
Northwestern
(5-0) (7-11)
18
(16)
92
(16)
184.6
(2)
Persa
155
(14)
122
(8)
51
(4)
30
(4)
29
(12)
18
(6)
1
(7)
89
Utah
(4-0) (4-11)
17
(15)
114
(18)
154.9
(10 )
Wynn
176
(12)
86
(4)
51
(4)
32
(6)
44
(4)
12
(3)
-.75
(15)
91
Oklahoma St
(4-0) (9-5)
15
(13)
33
(8)
169.7
(5)
Weeden
170
(13)
134
(12)
42
(10)
43
(12)
52
(2)
29
(11)
1.2
(6)
92
Nebraska
(4-0) (5-8)
19
(17)
102
(17)
139.1
(14)
Martinez
309
(3)
138
(13)
45
(8)
28
(3)
40
(6)
12
(3)
.5
(10)
94
Oklahoma
(5-0) (14-5)
7
(7)
21
(5)
137.4
(15)
Jones
121
(16)
163
(15)
44
(9)
38
(9)
32
(10)
22
(9)
2
(2)
97
Missouri
(4-0) (10-3)
13
(12)
12
(2)
133
(17)
Gabbert
154
(15)
146
(14)
39
(12)
40
(10)
37
(7)
14
(4)
1.5
(4)
97
KState
(4-0) (10-4)
16
(14)
7
(1)
147.6
(13)
Coffman
216
(10)
195
(16)
41
(11)
37
(8)
30
(11)
19
(7)
.5
(10)
101
Michigan St
(5-0) (9-8)
26
(18)
80
(15)
164.8
(7)
Cousins
220
(9)
101
(7)
37
(14)
38
(9)
36
(8)
18
(6)
.4
(11)
104

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