ChanceBot Simulations: Week 15 Game Impacts

Mark MyersAnalyst IDecember 13, 2007

Impact is determined by calculating the degree to which the outcome of each game changes playoff chances for each team.

The total Impact of a game is the sum of the team-by-team changes. A detailed example of how these values are calculated is included below.


What follows are the Impact values for Week 15...


Chicago at Minnesota82.7
Arizona at New Orleans72.0
Buffalo at Cleveland57.4
Tennessee at Kansas City41.4
Washington at NY Giants38.6
Detroit at San Diego27.6
Denver at Houston9.4
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh9.0
Philadelphia at Dallas7.0
Atlanta at Tampa Bay2.0
Seattle at Carolina0.8
Cincinnati at San Francisco0.7
NY Jets at New England0.3
Baltimore at Miami0.2
Green Bay at St. Louis0.1
Indianapolis at Oakland0.1

How Impact Is Calculated

Imagine a simple scenario in which Teams A and B are playing in the final week of the season.

Suppose there's a third team, Team C, which has a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs (depending on outcomes of other games) if Team A wins. If Team B wins, on the other hand, Team C will have only a five percent chance of making the playoffs.

The impact of the game between A and B on Team C is 45—the difference between 50 and five.

The total impact of A vs. B is determined by adding the game's individual impacts on each of the teams in the league.


Mark Myers is the founder and primary developer at, a sports simulation and analysis website. He can be reached at