Impact is determined by calculating the degree to which the outcome of each game changes playoff chances for each team.
The total Impact of a game is the sum of the team-by-team changes. A detailed example of how these values are calculated is included below.
What follows are the Impact values for Week 15...
|Chicago at Minnesota||82.7|
|Arizona at New Orleans||72.0|
|Buffalo at Cleveland||57.4|
|Tennessee at Kansas City||41.4|
|Washington at NY Giants||38.6|
|Detroit at San Diego||27.6|
|Denver at Houston||9.4|
|Jacksonville at Pittsburgh||9.0|
|Philadelphia at Dallas||7.0|
|Atlanta at Tampa Bay||2.0|
|Seattle at Carolina||0.8|
|Cincinnati at San Francisco||0.7|
|NY Jets at New England||0.3|
|Baltimore at Miami||0.2|
|Green Bay at St. Louis||0.1|
|Indianapolis at Oakland||0.1|
How Impact Is Calculated
Imagine a simple scenario in which Teams A and B are playing in the final week of the season.
Suppose there's a third team, Team C, which has a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs (depending on outcomes of other games) if Team A wins. If Team B wins, on the other hand, Team C will have only a five percent chance of making the playoffs.
The impact of the game between A and B on Team C is 45—the difference between 50 and five.
The total impact of A vs. B is determined by adding the game's individual impacts on each of the teams in the league.
Mark Myers is the founder and primary developer at ChanceBot.com, a sports simulation and analysis website. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.