ChanceBot Simulations: Week 15 Game Impacts

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ChanceBot Simulations: Week 15 Game Impacts
Every week, ChanceBot.com measures the playoff implications (Impact) of each remaining NFL game.

Impact is determined by calculating the degree to which the outcome of each game changes playoff chances for each team.

The total Impact of a game is the sum of the team-by-team changes. A detailed example of how these values are calculated is included below.

 

What follows are the Impact values for Week 15...

 

Matchup IMP
Chicago at Minnesota 82.7
Arizona at New Orleans 72.0
Buffalo at Cleveland 57.4
Tennessee at Kansas City 41.4
Washington at NY Giants 38.6
Detroit at San Diego 27.6
Denver at Houston 9.4
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh 9.0
Philadelphia at Dallas 7.0
Atlanta at Tampa Bay 2.0
Seattle at Carolina 0.8
Cincinnati at San Francisco 0.7
NY Jets at New England 0.3
Baltimore at Miami 0.2
Green Bay at St. Louis 0.1
Indianapolis at Oakland 0.1

 
How Impact Is Calculated

Imagine a simple scenario in which Teams A and B are playing in the final week of the season.

Suppose there's a third team, Team C, which has a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs (depending on outcomes of other games) if Team A wins. If Team B wins, on the other hand, Team C will have only a five percent chance of making the playoffs.

The impact of the game between A and B on Team C is 45—the difference between 50 and five.

The total impact of A vs. B is determined by adding the game's individual impacts on each of the teams in the league.

 

Mark Myers is the founder and primary developer at ChanceBot.com, a sports simulation and analysis website. He can be reached at chancebot@gmail.com.

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